The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[pkjha30]

Thanks , Pankaj, .... but worth only one fifth now ? What does that mean?
AGILENT

That is a rejoinder for czar's comment that when nifty is at 1/5th level FIIs would find it more attractive. I was just pointing out what would be the net worth of FII investment at curent levels when nifty would be at 1/5th level. Though quite outrageous scenario, nonetheless a possibility to consider and its consequences.

Pankaj:

 

[pkjha30]

hi pankaj,

with all indicators going haywire, the need of the hour looks to be not TA, but FIIA (Foreign Investment & Indices Analysis)
can we outsmart them with our weak muscles?

murthymsr

Hi murthygaru

I understand its not all about money but a battle of mind. weak will get slaughtered.

Further it is also not a question of outsmarting them. They may be needed and does perform useful function i.e. price discovery in global perception.

did we ever imagine that one day sensex will be above ^dj?

As I understand for next 10 years at least sensex has no other way to go but up. The question is how to profit from it?Majority will never learn or else new set of newbies will join them.

The question must shift to the depth and bredth of market participation by public and better policy framework with little scope for manipulation and examplary punishments for corporate faruds.However , till now there is no hint of frauds as such.

We have that power to effect change and also demand chage for a better policy and regulatory framework. Only we , the people of India, don't exercise it.

Pankaj

 

[jdm]

Playful antics of the hunter after it has cornered its pray or 200EMA playing with all or whatever it may be.

If everyother indices inthe world is getting beaten can we expect recovery??

Global cues and FIIs are the two indications how market will behave in near future. If long term trend is broken , the consequences will be seen for years.

the fall in the Indian markets is an extension of the global meltdown. thats the most consoling factor. as same as it was two years ago. most of the world indices were at their all time high or at multiple years high. correction are nothing by the reality checks. part of the game.

What support do we look for here?

Levels I don't know nor do I bother.If it goes to 2004 level so much the better.

it seems that the sentiments has finally got you. your words really reminds me of an old saying, 'what really matters is attitude'. these are the times when we really put our knowledge to work extratime.

Somewhere I read that in the short term market behaves like a voting machine so sentiments can put heavy pressure on indices but in the long run it behaves like a weighing machine. The real weight of Indices show up.

Let market find its own true worth ,away from the hype and hoopla built by FIIs or bears or bulls.

Till such time Wait and watch.

how true. but lets not be bogged by sentiments. lets us not dance to the tunes of the FII's or whoever it might be, let us not be puppets. nahi to dekhtay'i rahe jayo ge.

cheers,
jdm.

 

[pkjha30]

the fall in the Indian markets is an extension of the global meltdown. thats the most consoling factor. as same as it was two years ago. most of the world indices were at their all time high or at multiple years high. correction are nothing by the reality checks. part of the game.




it seems that the sentiments has finally got you. your words really reminds me of an old saying, 'what really matters is attitude'. these are the times when we really put our knowledge to work extratime.



how true. but lets not be bogged by sentiments. lets us not dance to the tunes of the FII's or whoever it might be, let us not be puppets. nahi to dekhtay'i rahe jayo ge.

cheers,
jdm.

jdm

No sentiments have not got me. As a matter of fact I am not much aware of technical levels except through nifty-fifty.. I do not bother in the sense, I entered the market on 17th may 2004 for the first time as I was convinced abt our growth. Even now I am convinced. Those ,who are internediate term players, should and would have been out by now.

Its a hold for long term. no averaging or value buy even at this time. Why? because of global conditions.For a long term investor, if he has a select list of stocks right time to enter will be coming soon.

Purpose of thread is to try and see if assumptions in this regard hold now or not and to see at what point of time inflection for upward trend occurs.Undercurrents of FII buying is already there.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

One more thing I have noticed is that those stocks which were underperformer, till dec2006- jan2006 in the bull run were used to prop the sensex in the last leg of bull rally. On the other hand in this bear run they are being used to keep the sensex down. perhaps FII behaviour in sensex heavyweight like tisco and ril may be analysed , if and how thse heavyweights have been used to their advantage.

Pankaj

 

[jdm]

jdm

No sentiments have not got me.

good to hear that.

if he has a select list of stocks right time to enter will be coming soon.

pankaj, i think you must appreciate the fact thats its just impossible to TIME the market.

Purpose of thread is to try and see if assumptions in this regard hold now or not and to see at what point of time inflection for upward trend occurs.Undercurrents of FII buying is already there.

exactly, but then when the market has knocked off 20+% of its value (individual stock had been knocked off by 50% perticualrly the small and mid-caps), one has really missed the selling opportunity by miles, what I'm trying to say is not to give excessive emphasis to some figures. look the FII's are in a buying mode for the last two days, but yet the markets are falling.

as you said, you are still convinced abt our growth, if so, one shouldn't be jittery by these aberrations. aberrations do not bother me. what bothers me is the change in trend. the erosion of midcaps, the market breath - thats bothers me. and lets not forget our markets have even discounted the earning for next two years. a 20+% fall hasn't really seen a credible technical bounce back. thats bothers me.

cheers,
jdm.

 

[Trader123]

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm
another 1.5% we kiss goodbye to the 200EMA and also the immediate bottom which the sensex made on the 22nd of may.

Do we really have any supports left for such kind of selling.Reminds me so much of the last years "may mayhem"! A close below the circuit level... FII buyers yeaterday..wont be suprised if they r buyers today too.. If they r buying who is selling..??

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

Here is the list of all nifty stocks with cmp on 6/6/06 with their 52 week high and low, difference from current price and difference in % term .
It is in csv format and could be opened in excel.(this is not adjusted for splits or bonus)You can see how much stocks have been dragged down from their 52 week high and how much yet to fall, if it continues.
Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm
another 1.5% we kiss goodbye to the 200EMA and also the immediate bottom which the sensex made on the 22nd of may.

Do we really have any supports left for such kind of selling.Reminds me so much of the last years "may mayhem"! A close below the circuit level... FII buyers yeaterday..wont be suprised if they r buyers today too.. If they r buying who is selling..??

I suppose it is shorts and rest of the leftouts.

FII trades were 50% of volume traded in value on 6/6/06

Pankaj

 

[vinsu]

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm
another 1.5% we kiss goodbye to the 200EMA and also the immediate bottom which the sensex made on the 22nd of may.

Do we really have any supports left for such kind of selling.Reminds me so much of the last years "may mayhem"! A close below the circuit level... FII buyers yeaterday..wont be suprised if they r buyers today too.. If they r buying who is selling..??

Hi ..

On Jun5 , MF sold net 4173 Rs m , whereas FII brought net 5710 Rs m . Seems our own MF are the sellers now .. Source - Equity master .

Regards
Vinsu