The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[pkjha30]

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm
another 1.5% we kiss goodbye to the 200EMA and also the immediate bottom which the sensex made on the 22nd of may.

Playful antics of the hunter after it has cornered its pray or 200EMA playing with all or whatever it may be.

If everyother indices inthe world is getting beaten can we expect recovery??

What support do we look for here?

Levels I don't know nor do I bother.If it goes to 2004 level so much the better.

Somewhere I read that in the short term market behaves like a voting machine so sentiments can put heavy pressure on indices but in the long run it behaves like a weighing machine. The real weight of Indices show up.

Let market find its own true worth ,away from the hype and hoopla built by FIIs or bears or bulls.

Till such time Wait and watch.

Global cues and FIIs are the two indications how market will behave in near future. If long term trend is broken , the consequences will be seen for years.

Pankaj

 

[Czar]

I guess this thread would be more appropriate to coutinue this discussion if at all:

moved from nifty 50:

well another thing dada, for the money they have & can raise & the fact that they know this Indian story is for keeps... a 5 billion sell order & temp booking profits is no harm... then at 1/5 of top prices they can shop easily the same things for 2 years odd till things are made to move again,

The mind of ops & fii may run like this....toy with the retailers & m.funds (which infact is us invested) make them average & reaverage...after which its easy for them to make out that the buying power is exhausted, they tank the market so whoever & whatever will offload finally at 1/5th prices where they can pick up 5 times atleast of that 5 billion sell out... think both ways...to see both possibilities...

like now I would make a lucky gues that the massive m.funds collection is already invested at these levels & ofcourse some liquidity has to be there for redemptions so now if they accelerate the fall it is the most likely move to freeze the last moment exiters from exitting..

 

[pkjha30]

I guess this thread would be more appropriate to coutinue this discussion if at all:

moved from nifty 50:

well another thing dada, for the money they have & can raise & the fact that they know this Indian story is for keeps... a 5 billion sell order & temp booking profits is no harm... then at 1/5 of top prices they can shop easily the same things for 2 years odd till things are made to move again,

The mind of ops & fii may run like this....toy with the retailers & m.funds (which infact is us invested) make them average & reaverage...after which its easy for them to make out that the buying power is exhausted, they tank the market so whoever & whatever will offload finally at 1/5th prices where they can pick up 5 times atleast of that 5 billion sell out... think both ways...to see both possibilities...

like now I would make a lucky gues that the massive m.funds collection is already invested at these levels & ofcourse some liquidity has to be there for redemptions so now if they accelerate the fall it is the most likely move to freeze the last moment exiters from exitting..

An investment of 186661 crs. At 1/5th of prices it will be 37332 crs.

They might become the last man standing for a loooong loooooong time to come.

I don't think they are fools either to invest further after it tanks to 1/5th. Remember NIkkei . Still not recovered.

Pankaj

 

[Czar]

forget nikkei sir, japanese are foolish investors & excellent producers... jiska jo kaam usko shobhe... like how they have been pumping their billions into US bonds & themselves living quitely for years (I think they have taken revenge financially for hirishima & nagasaki, when japan raises rates USA's shorts will be removed)...now US facing idntity crisis as their citizen enjoy the whole world products with the money given as credit by the whole world.. so the world pay USA to spend & buy their products...funny cycle...when it ends a disaster will happen...now same story has been started in India...FII pumping & Indians spending..

long long time will be 3 / 4 years, thats usually how much time investor take to forget their mishaps...& by the 5th year they start entering again...remember again prices of our darlings in 01 - acc 90 / grasim - 250 / ril - dont ask / satyam 250 / mtnl 90 / telco 90 / etc etc. sectors may change but story remains another worldwide story may happen next time...

 

[pkjha30]

forget nikkei sir, japanese are foolish investors & excellent producers... jiska jo kaam usko shobhe... like how they have been pumping their billions into US bonds & themselves living quitely for years...now US facing idntity crisis as their citizen enjoy the whole world products with the money given as credit by the whole world.. so the world pay USA to spend & buy their products...funny cycle...when it ends a disaster will happen

long long time will be 3 / 4 years, thats usually how much time investor take to forget their mishaps...& by the 5th year they start entering again...remember again prices of our darlings in 01 - acc 90 / grasim - 250 / ril - dont ask / satyam 250 / mtnl 90 / telco 90 / etc etc. sectors may change but story remains another worldwide story may happen next time...

Well It is about FIIs . Are they going to live with their investment of 186661 worth only 37332 only.



Just an update. Dow is at .68%. Looks like We follow then.

All other indices are in red except one or two exotic indices in green. What for I don't know.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

USA Indices are in red. No asmuch as it while opening. Dow was 0.29%. Therefore, Indian indices will be down by less than 0.6 %. Looks like some defensive action to support technical levels.

Action of FIIs are so contradictory that it is difficult to read anything except that Now thay want us to believe in bear market and sell more. They also want want bears to be mauled badly by allowing them to short and then squeezing whatever profit is to be made from the market.

Thereafter a period oc consolidation or sideways movement and confidence building exercise will start. The next ramp up will start then

Is it my wish or prediction??
I don't want to do any. That was the pattern observed since 2000. This time it should be no different. Just that it might extend to one or two months or next quarter. Since nothing else has changed and two countries india and china will be the growth driver for world economy.

What I know is that for long term investors it will be a golden opportunity.It may not come again for next two years.

Pankaj

 

[Agilent]

Well It is about FIIs . Are they going to live with their investment of 186661 worth only 37332 only.


Pankaj

Excuse me Pankaj, but where have you got these figs from ?
AGILENT

 

[pkjha30]

Excuse me Pankaj, but where have you got these figs from ?
AGILENT

Figures from SEBI dear Agilent.

Daily Trends in FII Investments upto June 06, 2006

Reporting Date--- Debt/Equity ----Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)---- Gross Sales(Rs Crores) ----Net Investment (Rs Crores)----- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
01-JUN-2006---- Equity ---1730.90--- 2563.20--- (832.30)--- (185.20)

02-JUN-2006---- Equity--- 2317.80--- 2600.00--- (282.20)---- (62.80)

05-JUN-2006---- Equity ----2179.10---- 1538.60---- 640.40---- 142.50

06-JUN-2006---- Equity ----2088.40 ----1517.40---- 571.00---- 127.00

Total for June---- Equity ----8316.20 ----8219.20---- 96.90---- 21.50

Total for 2006---- Equity ----224228.60---- 213009.60--- 11219.10---- 2516.50

Grand Total till June 06, 2006---- Equity--- 1078045.60--- 891384.30---- 186661.30---- 43617.00

No of Registered FII's :916 as on 06.06.2006
The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on June 06, 2006 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day.
Discrepancies in total figures, if any, are due to rounding off

Now you got it.

Website address is

http://www.sebi.gov.in/Index.jsp?contentDisp=FIITrends

Figures are Rs. in crores.

Pankaj

 

[Agilent]

Thanks , Pankaj, .... but worth only one fifth now ? What does that mean?
AGILENT

 

[murthymsr]

hi pankaj,

with all indicators going haywire, the need of the hour looks to be not TA, but FIIA (Foreign Investment & Indices Analysis)
can we outsmart them with our weak muscles?

murthymsr