The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[pkjha30]

Hi

When a great Value discovery process is going on my only wish at this time is to see all stocks near their all time low in double quick time as time may be running out for bears. That will be a great opportunity.

But this may not happen. However , retail investors should wait and watch. I hope most of the intermediate term investors would have been out of their portfolio.

Now long term trend will be tested. . Time upto 16th june and then 23rd june should prove critical.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

Types of Investors.
1.Buy when everybody sells and sell when everybody buys
2.Buy when sun is shining. Sell on the hint of cloud
3.Buy when you think you get what you paid for and pray for others to realise it.
4.Get married to a stock in Indian style. Good if bride is good else God help us.
5. Get married to a stock in American style.marry and divorce as much as you like. Once in a lifetime you might have to pay the price for the bad bride.
6.Buy when everybody is buying and sell when everybody is selling.
7. Remain bachelor (broker)and advise others whom to marry.
8. Become divorce lawyer and tell when to part.

For 7 and 8 you pay both ways and loose your nickkers.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

This is what I read about in Equitymaster Website on 2004 crash. I am quoting concluding para which is so compelling

Oh, yes, before I end with these thoughts from a hotel room, another word of advice. The market will rise again - with your money or without it. I don’t know when and I don’t’ know by how much or for how long. But I know it will. So, if you had discipline and kept your fear and greed and other emotions away from your decision-making process, you would invest (not speculate) while others are selling. I know I am investing.

Full text is here http://www.equitymaster.com/outlook/experts/experts.asp?date=05/18/2004&story=1

However there are diferences in both.

So Nightwatch continues.But donot runaway from market. Give it company.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

The figures

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy--- Value--- Sell Value--- Net Value
6-Jun-2006--- 1512.1--- 1724.18--- -212.08


Figures given by SEBI for 6.6.2006


Daily Trends in FII Investments on 06-JUN-2006

Reporting Date-- Debt/Equity-- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)- --- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
06-JUN-2006--- Equity ----2088.40--- 1517.40--- 571.00---- 127.00

The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 06-JUN-2006 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day.


"Note: The data pertains to all the activities undertaken by FIIs in Indian Securities Market, including trades done in secondary market, primary market and activities involoved in right/bonus issues, private placement, merger & acquisition, etc."

NSE figures including BSE data shows that FIIs are net seller by Rs. 212.08 crs. While SEBI figures says they are net Buyer for Rs. 571.00 crs.

SEBI data includes many things other than trades in nse/bse. So what does it indicate. FII in their usual doublespeak are net seller for exchanges while being net buyer in off market activities. Surprising.

If they don't believe in Indian why the still invest.

Indices as usual showed approximately 3% slump in tendem with the USA market.

As overall sentiments are negative, any good news will be discounted.This helps FIIs and MFs in buying at lower price before building up sentiments for retailers to come in. It will take long time and scars of suffering will take time to heal. Only then retail investors will be prepared for another Bay of pigs.

As usual Last in Last out.

But is it time for adventures??

NO Just wait and watch inorder to beat them at their game.

CLSA has sounded optimistic note and one or two others have also done it but with caution that still some downside is left. Remember they decide the valuations.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

To continue further.........

This Bear grip is not confined to Indian Market so root cause is global readjustment, liquidity problem, risk assesment and returns estimates.

Currently all markets( except Taiwan) are deeply in red.

USA markets have opned red and are lower by .57%

Tomorrow will be same story. At least 1.5% down.

Pankaj

 

[Czar]

run run sensex the dow is chasing you wherever you go...

the 200 dma is at 9660...am i right ? do you remember how the nasdaq chased us in 2000 ?? we are always leading...

see the chart of 31.3.00 - how the 200 dma toyed with us

 

[jdm]

Tomorrow will be same story. At least 1.5% down.

another 1.5% we kiss goodbye to the 200EMA and also the immediate bottom which the sensex made on the 22nd of may.

 

[pkjha30]

another 1.5% we kiss goodbye to the 200EMA and also the immediate bottom which the sensex made on the 22nd of may.

Playful antics of the hunter after it has cornered its pray or 200EMA playing with all or whatever it may be.

If everyother indices inthe world is getting beaten can we expect recovery??

What support do we look for here?

Levels I don't know nor do I bother.If it goes to 2004 level so much the better.

Somewhere I read that in the short term market behaves like a voting machine so sentiments can put heavy pressure on indices but in the long run it behaves like a weighing machine. The real weight of Indices show up.

Let market find its own true worth ,away from the hype and hoopla built by FIIs or bears or bulls.

Till such time Wait and watch.

Global cues and FIIs are the two indications how market will behave in near future. If long term trend is broken , the consequences will be seen for years.

Pankaj

 

[Czar]

I dont look into much but there are 2 crucial long term supports - 9450 & 8250 if any one or both survive we may live in peace

 

[jdm]

global cues - definitely.

FII's not sure. the word is too vague. rather use the word accumulation/distribution. the absent of retail guys from the market is consoling.

another thing to watch out - market breath.