Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[Piuvbn]

4x Ji
Thanks a lot for the reply.
Murtajaji also please accept my appreciation for your advice. Though I don't know trading but know the experts who knows,then comes the part of choosing which style to use. In 'Traderji' one can learn and earn just by following the experts. I firmly believe with time and the help that I am receiving from the expert members my dream will come true. My best regards.
Partha Roy

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thanks for your kind words, Lalit. I'm humbled.

Our perspective is a little different but we both might be right. I don't look at Nifty as being unpredictable or weird. Because of what happened this week, it presents an opportunity for me to study the reaction from this point.

My system tells me to jump in at the bottom of the cloud as mentioned in my previous post. The nice thing is you are not getting in the way of a freight train, because the strong momentum from the reversal has gone relatively sideways, which is warning of the reversal. The WR3, up to this point is the peak for the week, and the candle is struggling after getting there.
That is a very bearish cloud it is bumping into, and I do not see price action entering it on the first trip north, which is another indication of a sharp move back to 5373.

HI Mr. 4 Pips.

Firstly, let me tell you that I respect you immensely and hold you in high regard owing to the fact that you are intelligent, can read markets, you are knowledgeable and you do all this for us selflessly.

I would like to learn all from you... as I have an affinity for knowledge. .... only that I dont get enough time for I am in service and I always try to take care that I am not harming my employers' interest in a bid to learn markets and acquire the knowledge of charts. Am sure, would learn it even if it take some more time.... need to streamline my life and concentrate on acquiring new skills by cutting down on sleep.....

But then I also need to say that Nifty is actually superior to any technique... It created a record sort of thing, at least for you, by hitting 3's back to back. That's why we say, Nifty is unpredictable and Wierd

You know, on this rally from 5222 to 5586, I have been able to catch only 109 pts, all thanks to you.... And i do not grudge on missing out the rest of the points... would like to catch the downfall also but for now, it's wait and watch.

where do you suggest we should go short, AS of now, i personally feel that if we break 5500, I should go short... what's your system saying.

Thanks

Lalit

 

[Lalit.Sikaria]

Have shorted @ 5536

Looking forward to have your tips when I get down to study on Icimoku (pardon me if I spelt it wrong)


Trailing stop loss hit @ 5500 --- sheer bad luck.... after hitting my S/L market never touched back 5500 and was only on down movement....

Thanks for your kind words, Lalit. I'm humbled.

Our perspective is a little different but we both might be right. I don't look at Nifty as being unpredictable or weird. Because of what happened this week, it presents an opportunity for me to study the reaction from this point.

My system tells me to jump in at the bottom of the cloud as mentioned in my previous post. The nice thing is you are not getting in the way of a freight train, because the strong momentum from the reversal has gone relatively sideways, which is warning of the reversal. The WR3, up to this point is the peak for the week, and the candle is struggling after getting there.
That is a very bearish cloud it is bumping into, and I do not see price action entering it on the first trip north, which is another indication of a sharp move back to 5373.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The market reversed at exactly my WR3, which of course is the peak for the week, rather than hitting the cloud and taking the bounce from there.
The market ended the week with a slight correction of the DOWN that is clearly visible on the 5-min, and will continue to its kijun at 5484. A containment level to start the week should be the hourly tenken at 5508.
Once the move DOWN has been completed, the market appears as if it will go sideways for awhile. It will be at that point that the various TF's are going to have a mind of their own. The objectives on the daily have been hit, namely the tenken and kijun. The weekly tenken at 5687 has not been hit, but the way to the point promises to be filled with briars and thistles.

If I traded Nifty, It was the kind of market I would have really enjoy the run south on from the 6000's, and then the bounce at 5222, and then this reversal. Afterward, I would have just thanked the market for all the many wonderful ticks it loaded my account up with, and then moved on. This is why for my trading pleasure I follow 28 markets. If opportunity does not come knocking in one market, it sure will in another.

What you saw in Nifty as it dropped form 6000 was a very predictable move, because the trifecta (daily, weekly, and monthly) was agreeing. The drop to the weekly cloud was very predictable, because of how sharply OB the trifecta was. The move back UP was predictable, because the weekly cloud is strong support. The bounce back was seen because of the strong bearish 4-hour cloud, and it was the market's first trip in the direction, so the cloud was strong R. It has actually not been hit yet, which is also adding some sideways implications for next week.

Also, the question then is, "So when the market goes sideways, then there are no trading opportunities, right?"
That is not true, as long as there is life in the market (Namely, moving.), it is providing trading opportunities. This is where you tone the microscope down to the 4-hour, hourly, and even the 15-min charts to spot the opportunities. Sideways markets present channels, which are real nice-- hit the bottom of the channel, then go long; hit the top of the channel, go short.
The thing to keep in mind is that in the bigger picture, the weekly is probably not done with its move to 5687, and the monthly has a lot to say about a move south.

 

[lancer]

Just posting two charts for reference that does somehow corroborates 4xpip's TA. It is for the experts like Savant to please analyze and post guidance.


Markets broke its 200 day EMA + important Support points


breaking of 200 EMA is a significant event and it has happened only twice in last 2 yrs. But it bounced back from that point. However this time it has broken it again and gone below it and not bouncing back . Incase it does not bounce back above it , It is obviously not a comfortable situation.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nifty PE touched 25 and now moving down


Nifty PE has been a good indicator till now to show the over-bought and over-sold regions and we can expect it to be a good indicator . In the last 10 yrs, it was the second time when Nifty PE went beyond 25 , Only in 2007-2008 it was around 27-28 and even body knows what happened after that . Even now Nifty PE touched 25 and now its moving towards 20. One may not be very bullish for long-term in this kind of scenario . But there are cases where it has bounced back from 20 again to move higher. So we may keep it as a possibility . See the chart below which shows you the Nifty PE movement in last 10 yrs . FIIs are pulling out their money booking profits to re-enter/ deploy at lower PE of 15 or sub levels may be.

Could have expected a strong bounce from 20 PE. Nothing wrong with the economic fundas of the country. Just bad governance acts as an catalyst for out flow of capital. Realty bubble add to it. Incomplete projects @ astronomical costs. Banks refuse to lend them money. The PM agrees in press conference that he had to look the other way round to abide by "Coalition Dharma". Does not even mention that had 2G been auctioned, the mobile penetration would not have been more 60% and call rate would have been hovering around Rs 5 /min, procedural mistakes and favoritism not with-standing. The most powerful judiciary in the world .........above any scrutiny of corruption charges....impeachment only and no criminal proceedings. Say more, get booked for contempt of court.........!!!! Now an IAS(S) becomes SEBI boss. Some body told me that he is a good man. If so, how he was appointed to this post.

HELP OUT WITH SOME GOOD NEWS.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nifty weeklies--022011

5676, 5579, 5520, 5403, 5344, 5247

I urge you to plot these on your chart, and this way you will see live the accuracy of them.
Of course, I'm sleeping a little after your market opens until it closes.
This week the correction could end be contained at the WS2 at 5344. As long as it does contain, then the reversal will be seen to at least the WR1 at 5520, with a shot at the WR2 at 5579.
I'll make sure everyone is armed with my monthlies when March arrives.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Savant's taking his time, so I'll put my 2 cents in, and then see if he agrees.
You do not get many crossovers with the 200 MA, just because of all the candles it covers. It is a solid S&R, and when broken, there is no looking back.
Once a market approaches the 200 MA, a trading opportunity presents itself, but the question is will it be an acceleration in the same direction, or a reversal after hitting it. A confluence of indications will determine what the ultimate plight will be. In this case the plight of the trifecta was clear that it was going to be broken. The object is set a stop about the range of one candle, and the trade should be safe allowing for a spike if you got it right, and taking you out with minimal damage if you are wrong.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the initial hit on it will usually yield a bounce, so quick pips can be made going the opposite direction, but that does not mean it will continue that way.
It is also an effective tool on the smaller TF's. The only difference with the smaller TF's is that it will tend to straddle the MA and tease the trader until it makes up its mind.
I've observed the 200 daily MA on the weather. The crossing of the MA happens in the latter part of spring when the weather starts to heat up, and then crosses back over in late fall. So, even on the weather it yields only 2 crosses per year.

The chart I posted would not plot the MA on here. For whatever the reason, it could not be seen. The extreme tip was where the 200 MA is. Many forecasters at that time were saying the GBP/CHF was going much further UP. The devious part of me has to check in to this to see if I might find something that would indicate otherwise. The 200 monthly SMA had not been crossed in 25 years. Strong divergence was spotted on the stochastics, so I posted to my chat room, at the time, that the pair was about to reverse in a big way. Some laughed me to scorn, but I got the last laugh.

Additionally, if you are looking to trade Nifty, this correction of the BIG trend could end very close to the 200 MA. If it is touched on the way back UP, that could also present a perfect trading opportunity to go short with little risk.

Just posting two charts for reference that does somehow corroborates 4xpip's TA. It is for the experts like Savant to please analyze and post guidance.


Markets broke its 200 day EMA + important Support points


breaking of 200 EMA is a significant event and it has happened only twice in last 2 yrs. But it bounced back from that point. However this time it has broken it again and gone below it and not bouncing back . Incase it does not bounce back above it , It is obviously not a comfortable situation.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nifty PE touched 25 and now moving down


Nifty PE has been a good indicator till now to show the over-bought and over-sold regions and we can expect it to be a good indicator . In the last 10 yrs, it was the second time when Nifty PE went beyond 25 , Only in 2007-2008 it was around 27-28 and even body knows what happened after that . Even now Nifty PE touched 25 and now its moving towards 20. One may not be very bullish for long-term in this kind of scenario . But there are cases where it has bounced back from 20 again to move higher. So we may keep it as a possibility . See the chart below which shows you the Nifty PE movement in last 10 yrs . FIIs are pulling out their money booking profits to re-enter/ deploy at lower PE of 15 or sub levels may be.

Could have expected a strong bounce from 20 PE. Nothing wrong with the economic fundas of the country. Just bad governance acts as an catalyst for out flow of capital. Realty bubble add to it. Incomplete projects @ astronomical costs. Banks refuse to lend them money. The PM agrees in press conference that he had to look the other way round to abide by "Coalition Dharma". Does not even mention that had 2G been auctioned, the mobile penetration would not have been more 60% and call rate would have been hovering around Rs 5 /min, procedural mistakes and favoritism not with-standing. The most powerful judiciary in the world .........above any scrutiny of corruption charges....impeachment only and no criminal proceedings. Say more, get booked for contempt of court.........!!!! Now an IAS(S) becomes SEBI boss. Some body told me that he is a good man. If so, how he was appointed to this post.

HELP OUT WITH SOME GOOD NEWS.

 

[sanjosedesi]

"posted to my chat room" ... pls explain?

 

[4xpipcounter]

SJD, I should have been more clear on that. It was a chat room I had running at the time. WE had the same bunch of us gathering for great conversation about whatever, but, of course, it mainly revolved around trading forex.
It was similar to the one on this site but open only to those invited. It was huge. There was over 100 of us. If you were bored, you could get on anytime and chat with your internet friends.
It came to an end partly due to a business trip, and to the fact, I love my wife more than you guys, and it was getting me in trouble--lol. Tucker didn't mind it, though. He had a built in lap the whole time for his personal comfort.

"posted to my chat room" ... pls explain?

 

[4xpipcounter]

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I mentioned in the other post that containment should be 5373, which is the kijun. The sudden reversal came from a little less than perfect bounce off my WS1 (5403) at 5406.
This is the point we are entering into that the market becomes a little unpredictable, and where we can expect some sideways action. The 4-hour tells many stories. The kijun was not hit, and neither was the WS1 (missed by 3 points). The bottom of the cloud was not hit. In spite of the strong close, this all points to a move further south.
The hourly (not posted) is showing a strong bounce off the top of the cloud with the stochastics OS and a perfect cross. That is bullish.
Also, and as per a previous conversation, the candle is approaching the 200 MA on the hourly, and the last time price was above it was Jan. 8th. That is favored to be broken, but I don't know how imminent.
Because of the OS condition on the weekly and the bounce off the top of the cloud, it is still favored that the tenken be hit currently at 5687. That should is shaping up as a strong reversal point. The daily is getting OB. The 200 MA is 5637, and all spikes are allowable, so we could get a move to 5687 during a day, and then a strong move back under 5637 during the same day. That area is shaping us as containment for the next move south.
For now, price is trying to decide what to do with the 4-hour cloud, as it is strong R on the initial approach. Wait for reaction, and then additional latitude will be enabled once the candle has entered the cloud. For now, we travel east until the cloud has been broken into.