My favorite Hedge Fund manager Hugh Hendry was on Bloomberg in January 2011. I would like to share his views with all friends...
I just completed transcribing his Irish accent video into text... for those who wish to read instead of listening to the video...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ms5mGTL2FE
My notion of China is simply that… the world maybe… you know I’d hate to sound like I am… I have not seen the future… I am just engaged in the balance of probabilities, ok… but the world may have made an error of judgment… maybe associating GDP growth with wealth creation… and I don’t make that association.
I think China is almost unsurpassed in its ability to create GDP growth… but that may be at the expense of wealth creation…
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The world is so desperate to speculate… and why this desperation? I think a moment in time has passed… a moment which embraced risk-taking… a moment where every streeter wants to be a hedge-fund manager… And it’s a moment now where, if we look at society at large, the term “speculation” has become pejorative. (Pejorative = being disliked)
People have a dislike and discomfort because of the experiences of the last two years… So, I do speculate, but as I said to you, our activity is focused on asymmetrical opportunities… and largely we invest through Option Premium. So, with that 1,00,000 Dollars or Euros or Pounds that you might bring to our table, we would only typically invest, or have at risk if you will, 20% of that money.
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This saying that I made up… which is that the Pond with the most Fish you’re going fishing is the most contentious pond. (Contentious = controversial)
I always ask my investors to consider their own portfolios… there should always be a contentious edge. You’re not guaranteed to make money if something is contentious… its just something that the probability is more in your favor. So, without a doubt, what is contentious today…? Contentious posturing would be trying to anticipate a rally or a sustained rally in the Dollar, contentious posturing would be that the recent Bank of Japan intervention in trying to hold down the value of the Yen… I think it is contentious to say that that would fail… I think it is contentious to say that the Yen could strengthen to ridiculous levels… 70s, 60s, 50s… (currently 83.22 to the US dollar)
And it is contentious to say that, with interest rates at 400-year lows… that they are not going up any time soon… and its contentious to say that with the 10-year US treasury trading at 2.5%, actually, it might be a great asset to own for the next 2 years…
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I think all of the reform measures that have so far passed with regard to banks are toothless… I mean the Basel III was a joke… For 12 years it has been pooled along… and the decision making is being informed by the weakest banks rather than the strongest… I think the notion that banks in the United Kingdom… why are they allowed to pay dividends…? Never mind bonuses to the employees… I think both of them should not be there… and I think you say you mandate you require 20% tier-I… who made up… who decided that it should be 4.5% tier-I? It should be 20% tier-I… then society at large could rest…
You know… its toothless again in that they have not separated investment banking from a retail deposit base… TOOTHLESS…! They are terrified… terrified of bankers because the bankers are so large…
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The role of speculation… something as I perceive… is the pursuit of knowledge… and I think it has become antagonistic to many today because the truth may be unpalatable… it is unpalatable to reflect on just how misaligned the Greek economy is… and its culture in terms of any chance of raising sufficient tax revenues to meet the debts that they have… its unpalatable to talk about that… its very necessary I believe to talk about that…
But when we come to ban some forms of speculation… which seem to be motivated by desire to avoid the truth… then I’d say BearMind… Ok… you do away with Hugh Hendry… but if I’m gone… the hedge fund industry is gone… then it might be Bloomberg… or Financial Times…or Wall Street Journal… or London Times… You are not allowed to disseminate information which some higher political authority judges to be undemocratic…
We are free society… free to do things as we choose… And there are some rules… and I don’t see anything that requires additional absolute bans on behavior. Again, if social mood is hardening… changing… deteriorating… and we see that not just in hedge funds… then whats potentially wrong with our society is… making money has become such an odious contention… and I say to those who find it odious… go and be pure… yeah… go and live in pure society… yeah… see how much fun that is…