Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On - Chapter II

[nandanbal]

Savant Sir & All Freinds;

WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR.

nandan

 

[asnavale]

Hi All,

We are going to have modified trading hours in the New Year (2010). Let us also have the "Modified Single MA AFL" in the New Year.

As I have already indicated earlier, I was using a modified Single MA AFL from November 2009 for generating the BUY/SELL Triggers. The modification was giving many of the triggers a day or two earlier than the old version. Many members had asked why the triggers posted by me were different from what they were getting. The answer was the modified AFL which I was testing. After testing it live for the past two months I am posting the same.

In most of the aspects both the old and modified AFL give similar performance. In some cases we get the triggers a little earlier. This will help us in entering the trades at a lower price and possible higher gains.

I have made three modifications:

1) The older version had an option to use Linear regression. Though LR is quite effective in catching some moves early, it suffers from the "Forward Looking" effect. The future prices can affect Linear regression. Therefore, when we take its performance over a longer period it is not that effective as SMA. Therefore, I have eliminated LR and added "Wilders MA" to the strategy. Wilders MA is the reason for getting some early signals compared to SMA. Therefore the AFL is modified to include Wilders MA and it is the default choice.

2) The threshold change for detecting trouugh (required for SL) was 2% in old version. (This is defined by 'Q' in the AFL). This some times used to get very deep SL and by the time it is hit the loss would be substantial. Therefore, I have changed the default to 1%. This has improved the Target/SL to more realisable values.

3) There are occasions when a stock reaches a very low price compared to normal range. These occur when there is a sudden reaction on a particular day due to some unexpected news/rumours etc. For example see the chart of ASIANPAINT on 17-08 and 22-12-09, or ONGC on 25-09-09. To avoid such unusual prices affecting the SL I have modified the SL formula. The modified AFL takes either the previous trough (as in the old AFL) or the lowest low of last 5 days whichever is higher as SL.

I have already modified the post #300 in this thread and incorporated these changes. You can download the modified AFL from:

DOWNLOAD LINK.

The same link is given in post #300 also.


-Anant

 

[asnavale]

Anant bhai I am getting these error

eIf(Sold AND NOT Sell, "Sold @ " + SellPrice + "\nProfit / Loss in Previous Trade = " + Prec(100 * (SellPrice - BuyPrice) / BuyPrice, 2) + "%", "");

_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}} ({{INTERVAL}}), {{DATE}} {{OHLCX}}, V=%1.0f\n {{VALUES}}\n\n", V + Ttl))

Error 1.

Operation not allowed. Operator/operand type mismatch.

Hi kool,

The error is due to line break. See the red line above. The line before '_N(Title=....)' should be "WriteIf(Sold ....). Correct that line and you will get it working.

-Anant

 

[asnavale]

Sir are you using Wilder 20 day moving average close? Many thanks

Hi Nimish,

Yes I am using Wilders MA of CLOSE with 20 periods.

A = Wilders(C, 20);

It is the default in the modified AFL.

Also, I am using Q = 1 for detecting trough.

This also is default setting.


-Anant

 

[pumajay]

Anant bhai I checked the formula & I dont get any syntax error. The formula works in the exploration but unable to plot the chart...

Hi,

Actually the problem is with the brackets I believe.

In place of the original one, try this

_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}} ({{INTERVAL}}), {{DATE}} {{OHLCX}}, V=%1.0f\n {{VALUES}}\n\n", V )+ Ttl);


The original has it like this


_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}} ({{INTERVAL}}), {{DATE}} {{OHLCX}}, V=%1.0f\n {{VALUES}}\n\n", V + Ttl))


It plotted the chart without error.

Maybe Anant can confirm the change I mentioned above

 

[uma_k]

Hi Friends,

Updates based on EOD of 31-12-09 are:

TARGETS HIT

The following have hit TARGETS:

Symbol     | Buy Date | Buy Price |  Target | Stop Loss | C.M.P.  | P / L %
-----------|----------|-----------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------
GRAPHITE   | 20-10-09 |    68.80  |   81.75 |    73.95  |   82.75 |  20.28%
GRAPHITE   | 26-11-09 |    70.50  |   82.05 |    58.95  |   82.75 |  17.38%
KFA        | 21-07-09 |    51.60  |   62.55 |    40.70  |   63.20 |  22.48%
NATIONALUM | 22-09-09 |   365.00  |  408.45 |   321.60  |  417.90 |  14.49%
NATIONALUM | 06-11-09 |   374.80  |  404.40 |   345.20  |  417.90 |  11.50%
SRTRANSFIN | 12-11-09 |   426.70  |  477.10 |   376.30  |  487.90 |  14.34%|
UNITY      | 30-06-09 |   337.55  |  530.90 |   417.55  |  541.85 |  60.52%
UNITY      | 22-09-09 |   398.00  |  530.90 |   417.55  |  541.85 |  36.14%
UNITY      | 08-10-09 |   419.50  |  530.90 |   417.50  |  541.85 |  29.17%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next Target and SL for the above will be set by Savantji.

STOP LOSS HIT TODAY

Symbol     | Buy Date | Buy Price |  Target | Stop Loss | C.M.P.  | P / L %
-----------|----------|-----------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The updated Excel File is available here.

WITH BEST WISHES TO ALL FOR A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR 2010



Regards

*** Uma ***

 

[asnavale]

Hi,

In the following post Savant had shown the application of Single MA to 5-min intra-day chart of NIFTY.

http://www.traderji.com/equities/10035-stocks-keep-close-eye-957.html#post378351

I had started testing the AFL (Wilders MA) with intraday live quotes to see whether we can apply it to intra-day trades also, either as it is or with some fine tuning. I was constantly observing the live charts, each bar building up with latest quotes. During this continuous watching process I had spotted one partcular behaviour of the bars and found that it could be effectively used for trading. It also may be quite effective in avoiding Whipsaws. At present I am not in a position to explain exactly what the behaviour is. But by watching the charts I can spot it. As I have limited access to live intra-day charts due to my work timings it is difficult to keep a watch on the charts constantly. As I am not able to describe it, I am not in a position to write an AFL also. Then I decided to check the same in EOD charts and I felt it is possible to spot the same thing in Daily charts also. As there is ample time available to go through all EOD charts at the end of the day, I decided to experiment with EOD Charts.


Based on this observation, I have decided to post the signals in this thread and see whether we can use it if successful. These signals will be only as ALERTS and not Trading Calls. Every day I will manually go through all the charts in my wachlist (about 300 of them) and post the ALERTS.

As this is in Testing Stage, I, THEREFORE REQUEST ALL OF YOU NOT TO TRADE THESE BUT JUST OBSERVE THE SIGNALS EVERY DAY

What I will do is post the ALERTS (BUY and SELL) as soon as I spot them. On the first day it is observed, it will have a score of one. If on next day it shows the same behaviour its score increase to 2. The next day it will becomr 3. After a score of 3 it becomes a True Trigger (But still Don't Trade it. Paper Trading is okay). During this 3 days if stock does not follow the same trend its score becomes zero and goes out of the list.

I once again caution NOT TO TRADE THESE AT ANY TIME, EVEN AFTER Score of 3.

For 4th Jan, 2010 I have the following ALERTS based on EOD of 31-12-09:

BUY ALERTS

-----------|-------|---------|
SYMBOL     | SCORE |   CMP   |
-----------|-------|---------|
ANANTRAJ   |   1   |  133.45 |
BARTRONICS |   1   |  148.20 |
DCW        |   1   |   20.45 |
IBSEC      |   1   |   34.30 |
RECLTD     |   1   |  242.80 |
-----------------------------|

SELL ALERTS

-----------|-------|---------|
SYMBOL     | SCORE |   CMP   |
-----------|-------|---------|
BALLARPUR  |   1   |   23.95 |
BIOCON     |   1   |  276.05 |
TULIP      |   1   |  956.00 |
-----------------------------|

-Anant

 

[uma_k]

Hi Friends,

Updates based on EOD of 04-01-2010 are:

TARGETS HIT

The following have hit TARGETS:

Symbol     | Buy Date | Buy Price |  Target | Stop Loss | C.M.P.  | P / L %
-----------|----------|-----------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------
ADANIENT   | 06-11-09 |   400.00  |  443.90 |   350.50  |  451.60 |  12.90%
CENTURYTEX | 13-11-09 |   488.00  |  541.75 |   434.25  |  549.05 |  12.51%
CENTURYTEX | 29-12-09 |   510.25  |  548.85 |   471.15  |  549.05 |   7.60%
EIDPARRY   | 12-11-09 |   338.40  |  373.85 |   302.95  |  387.70 |  14.57%
GNFC       | 12-11-09 |    96.50  |  105.95 |    87.15  |  110.40 |  14.40%
GRASIM     | 06-11-09 |  2195.00  | 2493.05 |  2130.95  | 2544.10 |  15.90%
INDHOTEL   | 12-11-09 |    90.20  |  105.75 |    74.65  |  106.60 |  18.18%
KCP        | 20-10-09 |   284.85  |  324.55 |   243.50  |  324.55 |  13.94%
KCP        | 06-11-09 |   270.95  |  322.05 |   267.95  |  324.55 |  19.78%
NATIONALUM | 22-07-09 |   299.85  |  418.80 |   345.20  |  438.75 |  46.32%
SAIL       | 12-11-09 |   179.50  |  246.05 |   181.75  |  247.60 |  37.94%
SAIL       | 30-11-09 |   192.50  |  246.05 |   181.75  |  247.60 |  28.62%
SOUTHBANK  | 17-11-09 |   142.45  |  149.95 |   134.95  |  150.00 |   5.30%
TATASTEEL  | 13-11-09 |   524.00  |  629.95 |   523.95  |  633.75 |  20.94%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next Target and SL for the above will be set by Savantji.

STOP LOSS HIT TODAY

Symbol     | Buy Date | Buy Price |  Target | Stop Loss | C.M.P.  | P / L %
-----------|----------|-----------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The updated Excel File is available here.


Regards

*** Uma ***

 

[asnavale]

Hi,

NEW TRIGGERS on 04-01-2010 (For Trading on 05-01-2010):

BUY TRIGGERS

Symbol     | C. M. P.|  Target | StopLoss | 
-----------|---------|---------|----------|
ABAN       | 1332.10 | 1537.80 |  1149.80 |
ASHOKLEY   |   52.30 |   56.85 |    48.55 |
BRFL       |  194.30 |  206.65 |   184.15 |
DWARKESH   |  119.10 |  136.35 |   104.15 |
GODREJCP   |  271.05 |  345.10 |   251.50 |
IBREALEST  |  224.85 |  244.05 |   214.75 |
IOC        |  314.65 |  328.05 |   303.55 |
LICHSGFIN  |  821.00 |  865.90 |   786.00 |
PATELENG   |  471.30 |  510.65 |   444.15 |
-------------------------------------------

SELL TRIGGERS

Symbol     |  Buy Date |  Price  |  Target | StopLoss |  C.M.P. | P / L %
-----------|-----------|---------|---------|----------|---------|----------
FEDERALBNK | 23-Dec-09 |  241.85 |  256.05 |   233.55 |  235.90 |  -2.5 %
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

TARGETS REACHED

Symbol     |  Buy Date |  Price  |  Target | StopLoss |  C.M.P. | P / L %
-----------|-----------|---------|---------|----------|---------|----------
CENTURYTEX | 02-Dec-09 |  490.30 |  535.70 |  440.00  |  549.05 |  12.0 %
GNFC       | 03-Dec-09 |   95.70 |  110.30 |   97.30  |  110.40 |  15.4 %
JSL        | 09-Nov-09 |  100.70 |  126.40 |  103.00  |  126.55 |  25.7 %
KCP        | 26-Nov-09 |  274.50 |  316.90 |  271.10  |  324.55 |  18.2 %
NEYVELILIG | 24-Dec-09 |  150.10 |  158.90 |  140.70  |  160.60 |   7.0 %
VIDEOIND   | 31-Dec-09 |  234.60 |  236.90 |  220.50  |  255.10 |   8.7 %
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CENTURYTEX   Next Target:  611.45, Stop Loss:   496.55
GNFC         Next Target:  124.50, Stop Loss:    99.30
JSL          Next Target:  149.95, Stop Loss:   110.05
KCP          Next Target:  389.20, Stop Loss:   286.30
NEYVELILIG   Next Target:  174.75, Stop Loss:   149.25
VIDEOIND     Next Target:  290.75, Stop Loss:   223.15

STOP LOSS HIT

Symbol     |  Buy Date |  Price  |  Target | StopLoss |  C.M.P. | P / L %
-----------|-----------|---------|---------|----------|---------|----------

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

TRADE THESE SIGNALS AT YOUR OWN RISK

The updated Excel file is available for DOWNLOAD HERE


-Anant

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Uma,

Happy New Year & Thanks A Ton....!!!

DALMIACEM - Next Target 194.80 S/L 152.20
EIDPARRY - Next Target 462.85 S/L 328.95
KCP - Next Target 407.55 S/L 267.95
TATACHEM - Next Target 341.50 S/L 297.05

Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde

Hi Friends,

Updates based on EOD of 30-12-09:


TARGET REACHED

SYMBOL     | Buy Date |  Price  |  TARGET | STOPLOSS |  C.M.P. | P / L % 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
DALMIACEM  | 17-11-09 |  148.50 |  158.95 |  139.05  |  160.70 |   8.22%
EIDPARRY   | 17-11-09 |  329.00 |  357.05 |  302.95  |  357.40 |   8.63%
KCP        | 10-11-09 |  271.50 |  299.05 |  248.95  |  301.45 |  11.03%
TATACHEM   | 12-11-09 |  289.20 |  327.95 |  259.45  |  332.60 |  15.01%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next Target for the above will be given by Savantji

STOP LOSS HIT

NO STOP LOSS HIT


The updated Excel file is available here

Rrgards

*** Uma ***