Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[akg12345]

Market is volatile but as well as oppotunity for value picks.

The art is to to pick the gem stocks among the stones to have max gain with no risk.

 

[praveen taneja]

How do you value gold?

I do not think there is any measure to derive its intrinsic value. Again, going back to Amit's point of emphasizing on buying right securities at the right price.

If you cannot derive a true value of the asset, how would you invest in it at the right price.

It is/has been considered an inflation hedge when currencies were pegged to gold. There is no rational explanation of why Gold Futures went down 10% on comex on 04/15/2013 or rather it lost 16% in mere two trading sessions.

Bro problem is we see one side of a coin always

you mentioned 16% fall right but didnot tell its rise in last decade as investment???
Brazil china and India with Russia accumulating Gold in anticipating of $ losing its value sooner or later
Iran started oil trading in Gold
China and India starting trading in there currency so Gold trading near mining cost can make miners stop mining creating shortage and run for 2000$ is sure:thumb::thumb::thumb:

 

[roketsingh]

Bro problem is we see one side of a coin always

you mentioned 16% fall right but didnot tell its rise in last decade as investment???
Brazil china and India with Russia accumulating Gold in anticipating of $ losing its value sooner or later
Iran started oil trading in Gold
China and India starting trading in there currency so Gold trading near mining cost can make miners stop mining creating shortage and run for 2000$ is sure:thumb::thumb::thumb:

you mentioned 16% fall right but didnot tell its rise in last decade as investment???

We will look at both sides of coin.

Here is little statistics that I compiled for you:

Gold SENSEX
1991 3,400 1,300
2014 30,000 24,234
CAGR 9.9% 13.6%

Stock market fared better if you accept SENSEX as a proxy of market risk i.e. systematic risk (beta=1). You need to take into account that gold was considered inflation hedge earlier but it is not the case any more as countries do not follow gold standards now.

I used 1991 as reference to sort our balance of payment issue that we had, because Indian currency was fixed before that era.

Brazil china and India with Russia accumulating Gold in anticipating of $ losing its value sooner or later

This is nothing but overconfidence/prudence bias in this statement, if there is any currency that will become significant in next decade or so is only Chinese Yuan, but China needs to let go its fixed exchange rate regime to become dominating currency.


Iran started oil trading in Gold

There were financial sanctions on Iran which restricted it to use conventional banking method for trading oil, it traded oil for gold and then used that gold to buy USD.

China and India starting trading in there currency so Gold trading near mining cost can make miners stop mining creating shortage and run for 2000$ is sure

There is no base here, as I mentioned earlier Yuan presents a strong case because it holds huge amount of treasuries, in fact amount of which is also not known to fed and China is running a current account surplus which helps its case.

Demand for INR is not that strong where it can start trading in its currency. Earlier rupee slid to record low because India was depleting its foreign reserve to provide support for oil companies as India currently imports 80% of its crude oil. And many trading partners decline to accept INR because of its volatility in last few years or so.


I can make these arguments on and on, I am not denying the fact that Commodities(including precious metals that is super set of gold) do not have diversification benefit. It holds a value in one's portfolio but you need to use it for diversification because it has low correlation with stock market.

My earlier question still holds that how do you value gold, supply and demand would give you price, but you cannot derive its intrinsic value from these factors. Often times because markets exhibit semi strong efficiency there is huge gap in value and price.

 

[cvas]

How do you value gold?

I do not think there is any measure to derive its intrinsic value. Again, going back to Amit's point of emphasizing on buying right securities at the right price.

If you cannot derive a true value of the asset, how would you invest in it at the right price.

It is/has been considered an inflation hedge when currencies were pegged to gold. There is no rational explanation of why Gold Futures went down 10% on comex on 04/15/2013 or rather it lost 16% in mere two trading sessions.

I'm also interested in this question.


IMO, anything is worth only how much you're willing to pay for it (beyond production costs, of course). The highest bidder sets the price.

Why pay a half a million dollars for a domain name when you can buy one for a few dollars? Because that is what you are willing to pay for. If someone can pay higher, that he sets the price.

Why is bitcoin gaining popularity? Isn't it just a "bunch of numbers" generated based on a mathematical algorithm? Because people believe it has value. How much? Again, it is how much a person is willing to pay for a bitcoin. If more and more people believe it has value, then automatically the price rises.

Anyhow, I could all be wrong, but I thought I'd share my views.

 

[jamit_05]

My earlier question still holds that how do you value gold, supply and demand would give you price, but you cannot derive its intrinsic value from these factors. Often times because markets exhibit semi strong efficiency there is huge gap in value and price.

Gold is attractive, aside from its lustre, because we know that every high in the past has been surpassed. Plus, it is an excellent diversification from the equity markets.

As for the right valuations, it is really hard to trust any one source.

 

[praveen taneja]

Here is little statistics that I compiled for you:

Gold SENSEX
1991 3,400 1,300
2014 30,000 24,234
CAGR 9.9% 13.6%

Bro you chose sensex at its peak and Gold when 20% down from peak is it fair
use 35000 gold price and then sensex was at 21000 now count last mnth was exception and modi result is not coming daily

Want to make this clear Modi is for work not to please FII so just one step and traders would listen singing towards FII
Tu Pyar Ka sagar hai Tere ek $ ke pyase ham

Just mere printing $ dont make US$ a currency for century and reminding you after 2020 US wont be on No-1 istead 4-5 as Russia gathering power again and all upcoming countries are ready to grab that position soon there would be no taker of US treasuries doe to its high growth and value
All views are Tukka Views I request CIA dont frame me in any case:rofl::rofl::rofl:

 

[Einstein]

Gold is attractive, aside from its lustre, because we know that every high in the past has been surpassed. Plus, it is an excellent diversification from the equity markets.

As for the right valuations, it is really hard to trust any one source.

we know that every high in the past has been surpassed Just like 2007 ??,

By the way in my views, there is nothing more attractive then Equity.

 

[roketsingh]

Here is little statistics that I compiled for you:

Gold SENSEX
1991 3,400 1,300
2014 30,000 24,234
CAGR 9.9% 13.6%

Bro you chose sensex at its peak and Gold when 20% down from peak is it fair
use 35000 gold price and then sensex was at 21000 now count last mnth was exception and modi result is not coming daily

Want to make this clear Modi is for work not to please FII so just one step and traders would listen singing towards FII
Tu Pyar Ka sagar hai Tere ek $ ke pyase ham

Just mere printing $ dont make US$ a currency for century and reminding you after 2020 US wont be on No-1 istead 4-5 as Russia gathering power again and all upcoming countries are ready to grab that position soon there would be no taker of US treasuries doe to its high growth and value
All views are Tukka Views I request CIA dont frame me in any case:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Well I gave you 20% above the current market for gold , current situation is

22-Carat 24-Carat Change(%)


Gold rate in Chennai Rs. 25880.8 Rs. 27680.00 -0.79%
Gold rate in Mumbai Rs. 25478.75 Rs. 27250.00 -0.76%
Gold rate in Delhi Rs. 25263.7 Rs. 27020.00 -0.81%
Gold rate in Kolkata Rs. 25375.9 Rs. 27140.00 -0.77%
Gold rate in Kerala Rs. 25665.75 Rs. 27450.00 -0.76%
Gold rate in Bangalore Rs. 25665.75 Rs. 27450.00 -0.76%
Gold rate in Hyderabad Rs. 25478.75 Rs. 27250.00 -0.76%

Source: Sify Finance

The point I was making by all those posts was that Gold is good to have in one's portfolio, but speculating that it would outperform equities is not justified.

Equities are good inflation hedge and gold is good hedge in high inflation environment.

I do not want to hijack Amit's thread by starting another discussion here.

I rest my case here.

 

[toocool]

@praveen

Can't find the thread where you said gold up mkt down in 2014

Can you please be a leader and start shorting Nifty on every rise and put your money where your mouth is?

 

[praveen taneja]

@praveen

Can't find the thread where you said gold up mkt down in 2014

Can you please be a leader and start shorting Nifty on every rise and put your money where your mouth is?

Bro just keep eye open whenever mkt going to fall safe money would shift to gold just one day jhatka and gold up 10$

I know you just trying to pull me but this is a good thread dont spoil it give me a link where you want to discuss your high knowledge to be my follower

:thumb::thumb::thumb: