Nifty Key levels for day traders

[AW10]

I found AW10 post. Here it is

Pralhad, Linkon.. it is no rocket science to anticipate a market action after Wide Spread day of 100+ points range. Look at the table below and observe the next day's range after we had 100+ point range on anyday. That is typical market behaviour and what mkt is doing today is prefectly normal behaviour..

Date	       day range
28-Apr-10	106
27-Apr-10	29
26-Apr-10	41
23-Apr-10	43
22-Apr-10	111
21-Apr-10	36
20-Apr-10	49
19-Apr-10	118

I am doing exactly what I posted earlier. Wound up my swing shorts of April series and accumulating few more bearish positions for May series.
Quite possible we might head up to 5300 to fill the huge gap there, before we make next move.

Happy Trading.

 

[linkon7]

Its been a long time since i posted my views on this thread. Laziness...is to be blamed...

global cues and ambani bhai-bhai milan gave us a good reason to gap up and surge up. But a viscous sell off towards the end of the day smelled of panic towards the end.

IF low of the day = close, then its pure covering of weak longs from the system. It can also mean plenty of fresh shorting. Either ways, Bears are wearing the pants in the house.

BUT,

I am trying to learn market profile and that gives us a different picture, It says that 70% of price action took place between 5014 to 4958 and the point of control was 4986.
The value area is higher than yesterday and the day before. TPO count says there were more buyers than sellers.

Tomorrow's opening can give us a clearer picture. One thing is for sure...build long positions only if we trade above 5014. The value area low for the day before was 4860which means we cam attempt to test 4844, 4730, 4638, 4476,4385,4235,4139,4055, 3949

Sound improbable right now, but lets look at the eod chart....

two support trend line were broken... that gives us next level of support at 4665--4567-4328-3905

USD at 47 Rs right now... below 48..it'll spell panic...
we are yet to see people believing that we can go down. Disbelief is just one step away from belief and then fear.....

 

[AW10]

Typical of Trader Linkon.. Always looking for something new.

Great stuff Linkon.. I am sure, you would be blown away by mkt profile as u go deeper into it.. But don't messup your well established system with this.. But see how it can improve them, or maybe give u new system to trade.
Hope you are reading Steidlmayer on Markets book by Peter Steidlmayer. A master piece on understanding market behaviour.

Happy Trading

 

[linkon7]

Typical of Trader Linkon.. Always looking for something new.

Great stuff Linkon.. I am sure, you would be blown away by mkt profile as u go deeper into it.. But don't messup your well established system with this.. But see how it can improve them, or maybe give u new system to trade.
Hope you are reading Steidlmayer on Markets book by Peter Steidlmayer. A master piece on understanding market behaviour.

Happy Trading

MP has given me a whole new dimension at looking at the market... I use it to supplement my normal trading setup. Now i am finally looking at the moon instead of the finger pointing towards the moon....

I seen many of your post regarding your observations on Market Profile and that was my ignition point. Now i took a break for a week just to reset my thought process. Hopefully we can combine this with some well established systems to gain the edge...

Will need your help and guidance... as usual...

 

[linkon7]

The market closed this week on a cheery note after a dismal start which saw the indices plunge on renewed European debt worries and other global concerns. But, three consecutive days of rallying, on the back of good global cues, made up for the losses without much volatility and pushed the benchmark indices up.

This week's performance are:
Sensex up 2.4%
Nifty up 2.6%.
CNX Midcap index up 1.3%,
BSE Smallcap index up 1%
BSE Realty index up 4%,
BSE Bankex up 1.7%,
BSE Metal index up 1.4%,
BSE IT index up 3.2%
BSE Auto index up 2.1%.


Nifty futures on daily TF

going by simple pivot style of trend identification, previous pivot high was 5333 which was lower than its previous pivot high of 5398. The pivot low 5162 got broken and we made a new lower pivot low of 4786, unless current up swing take out 5333, we have to assume that a series of lower low and lower high has begun.

Fibonacci retracement of the swings tells us that the swing that begun from 4667 all the way to 5398 has retraced 84.27% to 4786 and has closed slightly above 50% retracement levels (5028)... a close above 5115 (38% from the top) will mean strength has returned to the market and we can attempt to take out previous highs.

based on current fall from 5398 to 4786, we get 50% retracement at 5090. We are strong if this up swing takes up past 5162 (61.8%) retracement. for a 127% tgt at 5565 and 161% tgt of 5778. That's only if we can go past the 5162 mark...

 

[linkon7]

Nf on daily TF

current trend line (red) gets broken if we manage to close above 5112. Base is at 4800...

EMA-34 is at 5086 and that has always acted as strong support or resistance...

 

[linkon7]

A look at my new found love, market profile on weekly value areas tells me that for the past 5 weeks, we have been creating lower value areas...
last week our POC was 4918 and value high was 4989 and value low was 4847. we closed the week after testing previous weeks VAH at 5045

 

[linkon7]

Daily market profile shows that the value area for Monday will be 5037 to 5007 with point of control at 5022. If it sustains above 5037 for about 1 hour then next virgin poc is at 5175. If it trades below 5007 for 1 hr then downside target of 4957 opens up.

 

[linkon7]

A look at river flow method tells me that current range of 5052 to 5029 has already touched the top of the river bed 5050 and the river has flattened and this gives a target of 4967.

Divergence on RSI also confirms weakening of the second top...

Break of the trend line is at 5029...

 

[linkon7]

hourly market profile shows market was in balance for the last 7 hours... If we have a gap down or gap up... this can upset the balance and force either sides to act. consolidation at these levels means its a pause before the next upleg starts or market has found its peak... it will retest its virgin poc at 4957 and based on markets reaction to those levels..decide on its next course of action...