i agree. My perspective below.
While trading, we are trying to balance 2 objectives.
#1. Accuracy
#2. Volumes
if i make only 1 trade in a year, or once in a lifetime, unless i make a bad call like investing in nasdaq-2001 or unitech-2010, i will most likely (99.9%) be right. I can pick an index to be safe rather than a company. However, we are not talking about doing one trade, there are people who earn living just by trading, and i bet one trade can not sustain them. So some sort of volume is imperative.
On the other hand, if i make million trades a year (going to the other extreme), being right matters, but not to the extent that i have to be right 100%. As mr pips says, he is accurate 85% of the time. Subtract the 15% times he is wrong, and you get a net gain 70% time. With good stop loss management, or assuming that gains and losses are of equal size, that is something to be proud of. So i could be wrong 150k times in a year and still come out way ahead !!!
In my opinion, i do not think you can find any person who can do 1000 trades in a row without missing one (except maybe some market movers colluding with each other ... But lot of people do not share my fear of them). Why 1000, let's make it 100 in a row ... You might find some people who got lucky, but not more than that.
Also, in my opinion, the same chart and the same data tables give different signals to different people, that's just the way we are built. If i see lines and patterns better, others read numbers and ratios better. If i remember this event happened in 1978 and then this was the next step, someone else might be able to correlate a bloomberg newsfeed better with what's going to happen. Someone can use bollinger bands for profit, someone uses ichimoku. Because that's what works for them.
To repeat ... The trick is to find a balance between your reading skills (tech, fundamentals or otherwise) and your urge to do volumes (so that you know which trades to skip) ... And the balance is something very specific to you.
Of course, given that we are not 100%, there will be hindsight. Some situations will give us more ideas (checks and controls for future, or positive affirmation of what you did), whereas some will peter out as voodoo. But taking a moment to analyze it will hopefully improve the ratios.
** no reason to ramble ... Just the discussion of hindsight triggered this in me ***
While trading, we are trying to balance 2 objectives.
#1. Accuracy
#2. Volumes
if i make only 1 trade in a year, or once in a lifetime, unless i make a bad call like investing in nasdaq-2001 or unitech-2010, i will most likely (99.9%) be right. I can pick an index to be safe rather than a company. However, we are not talking about doing one trade, there are people who earn living just by trading, and i bet one trade can not sustain them. So some sort of volume is imperative.
On the other hand, if i make million trades a year (going to the other extreme), being right matters, but not to the extent that i have to be right 100%. As mr pips says, he is accurate 85% of the time. Subtract the 15% times he is wrong, and you get a net gain 70% time. With good stop loss management, or assuming that gains and losses are of equal size, that is something to be proud of. So i could be wrong 150k times in a year and still come out way ahead !!!
In my opinion, i do not think you can find any person who can do 1000 trades in a row without missing one (except maybe some market movers colluding with each other ... But lot of people do not share my fear of them). Why 1000, let's make it 100 in a row ... You might find some people who got lucky, but not more than that.
Also, in my opinion, the same chart and the same data tables give different signals to different people, that's just the way we are built. If i see lines and patterns better, others read numbers and ratios better. If i remember this event happened in 1978 and then this was the next step, someone else might be able to correlate a bloomberg newsfeed better with what's going to happen. Someone can use bollinger bands for profit, someone uses ichimoku. Because that's what works for them.
To repeat ... The trick is to find a balance between your reading skills (tech, fundamentals or otherwise) and your urge to do volumes (so that you know which trades to skip) ... And the balance is something very specific to you.
Of course, given that we are not 100%, there will be hindsight. Some situations will give us more ideas (checks and controls for future, or positive affirmation of what you did), whereas some will peter out as voodoo. But taking a moment to analyze it will hopefully improve the ratios.
** no reason to ramble ... Just the discussion of hindsight triggered this in me ***