Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[manoharpillai]

SJD, I may not believe in your theory, but as traders, this is the important point. You believe there will be volatile price action on Friday. I do too. We have complete different perspectives on it. I would dare not say your theory is wrong. Both our perspectives are going to yield the result we are looking for.
One thing is for sure. FA's create spikes in the market. So do days off. Both sides can be proven right by showing the history of it.
It also sounds like Infosys's creates the same kind of market spikes like the FOMC and the NFP creates in the currency markets.

Always market discounts the price before the events unfold.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Pips, a question for you. I see that you have other threads for currency and general technicals. but this is not related to any, so I am not sure where I should ask this, but since you check all these threads, here it goes ...

I have been watching the up move of silver. Until recently I did not think anything was out of ordinary. But last 2 weeks ... wow!! To me it seems like a bubble land and ready for correction. Although I have been thinking that for the last 3-4 days with not much luck. On your blog, I see you put the R3 as 44.1172. Is that weekly? If you look at the monthlies / yearlies, do you agree with the prophecies by many that silver at 50 might be too cheap in a few months?

My personal thought ... signs of a bubble, but not sure whether it has 1 day to go or 1 year to go, but price will go up and return back to at least these levels in less than 2 years.

 

[4xpipcounter]

No need to be confused. Regardless, of what happens the market will only go up or down. Just make sure you are going the right way, and you will make lots of money. If you go the wrong way, make sure the stop is in place and lose little money. The idea is just be right most of the time, and the money is there.

Too many theories and conjectures overcomplicate things. Just remember 2 keys words-- "up or down". Now, get on the right side. If you are not sure of your decision, then look at another market to trade.

Always market discounts the price before the events unfold.

 

[4xpipcounter]

SJD, I don't like propping my thread in another thread, but I have to this time. Go over to "My forecasts", and I'll answer it there. Give me 24 hours. I'm getting ready to leave for the day.

Pips, a question for you. I see that you have other threads for currency and general technicals. but this is not related to any, so I am not sure where I should ask this, but since you check all these threads, here it goes ...

I have been watching the up move of silver. Until recently I did not think anything was out of ordinary. But last 2 weeks ... wow!! To me it seems like a bubble land and ready for correction. Although I have been thinking that for the last 3-4 days with not much luck. On your blog, I see you put the R3 as 44.1172. Is that weekly? If you look at the monthlies / yearlies, do you agree with the prophecies by many that silver at 50 might be too cheap in a few months?

My personal thought ... signs of a bubble, but not sure whether it has 1 day to go or 1 year to go, but price will go up and return back to at least these levels in less than 2 years.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Sramu, I'm going to say this from personal experience. I have a blog that gets lots of hits on a regular basis. Through my blog, I have developed a lot of friendships, and professional relationships. People also come to my blog for help and guidance, because of my track record and all the services are rendered free, as thee is also no paid advertising on my blog. I said that not too sound like I'm blowing my horn, but to make a point. I have heard many times people use similar comments as this one, but it is an excuse to fail.

First of all, the comment is obvious. There are no foolproof systems. All systems, when followed faithfully, are going to yield some losing trades, every once in awhile. Most people I have talked to that have used any kind of a derivation of that comment has used it as an excuse to fail.It is almost something like, "No system is guaranteed to win all the time, so this is why I lost and am continuing to lose." In other words, that is a comment reserved only for losers. The object to being a successful trader, and SJD alluded to it, is knowing how to manage the losers with the winners. Losing is just part of the job (Notice I said the key word, "part".). The totality of your job is to derive a system (It does not matter how it is contrived.) that yields winning trades most of the time, use could margin management, and have strong mental discipline the entire journey.

I'll break that down to my favorite lowest common denominator for you. The markets can only go up or down. You toss a coin and you are going to be right 50% of the time. Add a methodology that can discern in advance which way the market will go, and then what you have is a system that is not foolproof, but will make you lots of money.

"As long as the error or delayed trends in TA (In this case from bearish to Bullish) is recognized early the damage can be reduced." That is your quote. If the errors are the rule, then there is something wrong with you and your methodology, not the TA's. Let me reword that a little, because this is what we are here for:
As long as the right trends in TA (In this case from bearish to Bullish) are recognized early the rewards can be increased.

"Unfortunately there is no silver bullet in predicting the market. This is the nature of the beast."
Wrong! There is nothing unfortunate about it. That is just the nature of trading, not the beast. The beast has nothing to do with it, but that is a subject for another thread.

My 5 dollars worth. I just raised your 2 cents worth--lol. That was only a joke, Sramu.

Of cors .. HINDSIGHT is always 20/20 .that applies to TA as well. There is absolutely no fool -proof method. As long as the error or delayed trends in TA (In this case from bearish to Bullish) is recognized early the damage can be reduced. Unfortunately there is no silver bullet in predicting the market. This is the nature of the beast.

My 2 cents

 

[sanjosedesi]

Hi Paul, any observations from Friday's move on Nifty?
What does next week look like?

 

[4xpipcounter]

First of all, let's do the weeklies. This is very important for this week, because of some strong obviations:
6022, 5932, 5878, 5770, 5716, 5625

Image Shack seems to be having problems, which is why there is no chart.
Simply put, an apex is forming from the weekly DOWN TL and the 4-hour UP TL, and yes both are drawn correctly. Currently, the levels are 5789 and 6012. It adds up to one thing--a very strong break at either end. Also, notice the WR3, as it is 6022. A thrust through the TL at 6012 and the WR3 would send price action back to 6100 in no time. A firm break of 5789 simply means we are at the WS1 at 5770, and then the WS2 at 5716. If we get a break of the 4-hour TL, I would look for a pattern of continuation (Means a break of the WS1 with virtual no correction.) to the WS2, and then some sort of corrective pattern from there. Personally, I favor the weekly to hold as strong R for the week, and we get the break on the downside.

From a trader's point of view, there will be an obvious setup either way, so it does not matter if my personal bias is right or wrong. The nature of a TL break is such that there is a strong break of it, in other words, a longer candle than usual broke it. After, price may still keep going in that direction, but a correction is imminent back to at least the point where the TL was broken, and it could bounce off the TL. Once that happens, enter the position in the direction it broke.

The reason for my bias is that the weekly is OB, and we have not seen the rest of the down move complete itself from the monthly.
This week the S&R's are worth watching, and the TL's. If my bias is correct, then learn for initial strong support to be at 5687, which is the top of the daily cloud, and the circa area of the top of the weekly.

 

[krushi123]

Hi 4xpipcounter,

IT has been a good learning. Your other thread of TL trading is also quite a compelling learning. Thanks for all of it.

Regarding this Nifty trading - and your levels, I have a small request. Though I am able to understand your view regarding direction of the counter, I am unable to understand how to translate that into a trade.( Probably my mistake) - What I want to know is how do we trade using the levels and the direction. If you could demonstrate a couple of examples, that will make things easier for novices like me. Though not at a day trading level, if you could specify some weekly trading setups, that will make me understand the whole thing much better. I know there can be many ways in which the view can be used and implementation is generally left to the individual, I would like to know a couple of practical setups from you to understand and comprehend the whole thing better. I thought twice before asking the question ( I wanted to confirm for myself that I am not asking for either some ready made calls to trade directly or spoon feeding.) It is only for understanding how to translate a view into a trading method.

Thanks in advance, and if my question looks too novice or too demanding feel free to ignore it.

First of all, let's do the weeklies. This is very important for this week, because of some strong obviations:
6022, 5932, 5878, 5770, 5716, 5625

Image Shack seems to be having problems, which is why there is no chart.
Simply put, an apex is forming from the weekly DOWN TL and the 4-hour UP TL, and yes both are drawn correctly. Currently, the levels are 5789 and 6012. It adds up to one thing--a very strong break at either end. Also, notice the WR3, as it is 6022. A thrust through the TL at 6012 and the WR3 would send price action back to 6100 in no time. A firm break of 5789 simply means we are at the WS1 at 5770, and then the WS2 at 5716. If we get a break of the 4-hour TL, I would look for a pattern of continuation (Means a break of the WS1 with virtual no correction.) to the WS2, and then some sort of corrective pattern from there. Personally, I favor the weekly to hold as strong R for the week, and we get the break on the downside.

From a trader's point of view, there will be an obvious setup either way, so it does not matter if my personal bias is right or wrong. The nature of a TL break is such that there is a strong break of it, in other words, a longer candle than usual broke it. After, price may still keep going in that direction, but a correction is imminent back to at least the point where the TL was broken, and it could bounce off the TL. Once that happens, enter the position in the direction it broke.

The reason for my bias is that the weekly is OB, and we have not seen the rest of the down move complete itself from the monthly.
This week the S&R's are worth watching, and the TL's. If my bias is correct, then learn for initial strong support to be at 5687, which is the top of the daily cloud, and the circa area of the top of the weekly.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Krushi, by the way you worded your question, you seem to have some experience trading. Don't need to be shy about asking a question. I've said this a few times, and that is my methodology is one of the strangest you'll ever see, It just happens to be effective for me.
Another thing is I'm glad that as a novice you are looking to collect ideas, rather than trying to conform to a methodology. This is going to be of a benefit in learning to trade.
Let me just say that relative to Nifty, The WS1 is obviously going to get hit if the TL is broken. My S&R's are usually very strong and reliable. In the case of the break on the downside (Provided we get it.), there will be a longer than usual candle breaking it (As you know in reading my other thread.). This means the WS1 is a lock to get hit. The odds are that it would continue to the WS2, before we get a correction. As a norm, you can expect a bounce off my levels that will mean at least 38.2% of the reference points (I.e WP--WS1 or WS1--WS2.) If we do not get the desired correction, and price continues to the next level, then a full correction usually ensues.
Therefore, you could take a 2-way ticket on the move. You could wait for the WS2 to be hit, and then go long, and ride it back to the WS1. After the WS1 is hit, wait for price action to get back to the point the TL was broken, then reverse direction.
There is also a cluster event waiting on the downside, provided the TL is broken. I mentioned the WS2 at 5716, but there is also the top of the daily and weekly cloud to look out for, so there seems to be little doubt this cluster event will be containment for the initial move.

All of this is a mute point if the weekly candle takes out 6012 convincingly.

As a novice, I suggest to demo trade the events as they evolve, watch the charts, and ask questions to what is going on with the charts, and see if you can start spotting things for yourself. In the interim, feel free to ask questions. There are lots of helpful people on this site.

As far as more details concerning my S&R's, I'll try and post in my other thread, "Some of my forecasts". I don't want to belabor or bog down this thread with things that would not pertain to Nifty.

Hi 4xpipcounter,

IT has been a good learning. Your other thread of TL trading is also quite a compelling learning. Thanks for all of it.

Regarding this Nifty trading - and your levels, I have a small request. Though I am able to understand your view regarding direction of the counter, I am unable to understand how to translate that into a trade.( Probably my mistake) - What I want to know is how do we trade using the levels and the direction. If you could demonstrate a couple of examples, that will make things easier for novices like me. Though not at a day trading level, if you could specify some weekly trading setups, that will make me understand the whole thing much better. I know there can be many ways in which the view can be used and implementation is generally left to the individual, I would like to know a couple of practical setups from you to understand and comprehend the whole thing better. I thought twice before asking the question ( I wanted to confirm for myself that I am not asking for either some ready made calls to trade directly or spoon feeding.) It is only for understanding how to translate a view into a trading method.

Thanks in advance, and if my question looks too novice or too demanding feel free to ignore it.

 

[ashwani chadha]

sramu, i'm going to say this from personal experience. I have a blog that gets lots of hits on a regular basis. Through my blog, i have developed a lot of friendships, and professional relationships. People also come to my blog for help and guidance, because of my track record and all the services are rendered free, as thee is also no paid advertising on my blog. I said that not too sound like i'm blowing my horn, but to make a point. I have heard many times people use similar comments as this one, but it is an excuse to fail.

First of all, the comment is obvious. There are no foolproof systems. All systems, when followed faithfully, are going to yield some losing trades, every once in awhile. Most people i have talked to that have used any kind of a derivation of that comment has used it as an excuse to fail.it is almost something like, "no system is guaranteed to win all the time, so this is why i lost and am continuing to lose." in other words, that is a comment reserved only for losers. The object to being a successful trader, and sjd alluded to it, is knowing how to manage the losers with the winners. Losing is just part of the job (notice i said the key word, "part".). The totality of your job is to derive a system (it does not matter how it is contrived.) that yields winning trades most of the time, use could margin management, and have strong mental discipline the entire journey.

I'll break that down to my favorite lowest common denominator for you. The markets can only go up or down. You toss a coin and you are going to be right 50% of the time. Add a methodology that can discern in advance which way the market will go, and then what you have is a system that is not foolproof, but will make you lots of money.

"as long as the error or delayed trends in ta (in this case from bearish to bullish) is recognized early the damage can be reduced." that is your quote. If the errors are the rule, then there is something wrong with you and your methodology, not the ta's. Let me reword that a little, because this is what we are here for:
As long as the right trends in ta (in this case from bearish to bullish) are recognized early the rewards can be increased.

"unfortunately there is no silver bullet in predicting the market. This is the nature of the beast."
wrong! There is nothing unfortunate about it. That is just the nature of trading, not the beast. The beast has nothing to do with it, but that is a subject for another thread.

My 5 dollars worth. I just raised your 2 cents worth--lol. That was only a joke, sramu.

dear paul thanks for your usefull thought