Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[4xpipcounter]

Hello Sramu! Your comment is my favorite, so I will address it first. BTW, stay tuned for my update, and you will see how right the TA's really are.
Next, if the top of the cloud that you are referring to is the monthly, then I'll take your word for it. I never refer to the monthly cloud because the data feed does not plot the cloud on my chart. Also, the top of the cloud I knew would be in that circa area without looking because the cloud could not have moved that far since the "predicted" drop from 6K+.

If you have read my posts (I know you read some of them--lol.), then you will know I never blame my methodology. I have always and always will graciously accept responsibility anytime I am wrong. Why is that? Because, if I ma at fault, then I have control to fix the problem. After all, I would never want to blame you. It's much better for me when I am wrong.

How can you say so ? TA is always right Maybe the "cloud" deceived everyone . The top of "cloud" is now 6K+ . Therefore , you see .. TA is always right:lol:

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thanks, Murtaza, your post is right on the money, but then you are accustomed to that.

I'm about to address the "pattern". It is still not as bad as it looks the upside containment was just a bit off.

Of course ... AND you will see it .. maybe in Hindsight .. coz NOT EVERYONE can see what is being put in front of them ....

The same pattern can look bearish to one and bullish to another. Sometimes someone is fooled by the market .. that does not mean that he does not know the market or TA or whatever tools he uses to check the market are false.

Rest ... you are entitled to think and write whatever you want to .. so with me and so with Mr 4x ... its the understanding part which is tough and the believing part which is the hardest ...

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Before I get started, I hope everyone in India had a happy holiday

There was one area of the previous daily I did that I was wrong. I said the containment level on the correction would be at 5844--5870. The peak on Wednesday was 5943. Why was I wrong? Because the TL I drew was premature. The next time I post the 4-hour chart, the TL will be plotted correctly.
BTW, the TL being plotted premature was only able to be seen in hindsight. There was no way (For me, at least.) to tell that was the case until after the event.

I did say the DOWN would continue to 5749--5720 cluster S area, and the dip was 5747.

I said to be aware (not verbatim) of a possible violent spike, as this is common when a market takes a day off because of a holiday. The 4-hour chart tells that story. As the it spiked to start the day to the dip, and then we had the violent reversal.

With Wednesday's strong reversal, it looks impulsive, and so as Murtaza observed, it's not the DOWN is not going to happen, but it is simply being delayed. Initial R is going to be the WR3 at 5987, which is also chart R. and the next R will be the MR1 at 6022. At this point, it gets a little confusing, and do not know if it is the data feed, or what the deal is.
The weekly TL (red) is solid R. The problem is as I point the cursor at it on the weekly, is shows 6012 as the current level, but it is 6174, right at the MR2 on the 4-hour. That is a significant difference. Giving the benefit of the doubt to the weekly cloud, considering that was the chart I drew the TL on, then it is assumed the week will finish under 6012. If it does not contain, then it is going to be an extremely volatile day on Friday.
Another thing to keep in mind is that we are in a similar situation after the dip was complete. At that point (And I called it.), there was lots of R, which created some sideways action, before the strong move north. Now, we are in for lots of S, before we get another strong move south. As long as 6012 contains, we should get an initial strong move, and then some consolidation and correctional moves, and then we get the thrust.

 

[sramu1]

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Before I get started, I hope everyone in India had a happy holiday

There was one area of the previous daily I did that I was wrong. I said the containment level on the correction would be at 5844--5870. The peak on Wednesday was 5943. Why was I wrong? Because the TL I drew was premature. The next time I post the 4-hour chart, the TL will be plotted correctly.
BTW, the TL being plotted premature was only able to be seen in hindsight. There was no way (For me, at least.) to tell that was the case until after the event.

I did say the DOWN would continue to 5749--5720 cluster S area, and the dip was 5747.

I said to be aware (not verbatim) of a possible violent spike, as this is common when a market takes a day off because of a holiday. The 4-hour chart tells that story. As the it spiked to start the day to the dip, and then we had the violent reversal.

With Wednesday's strong reversal, it looks impulsive, and so as Murtaza observed, it's not the DOWN is not going to happen, but it is simply being delayed. Initial R is going to be the WR3 at 5987, which is also chart R. and the next R will be the MR1 at 6022. At this point, it gets a little confusing, and do not know if it is the data feed, or what the deal is.
The weekly TL (red) is solid R. The problem is as I point the cursor at it on the weekly, is shows 6012 as the current level, but it is 6174, right at the MR2 on the 4-hour. That is a significant difference. Giving the benefit of the doubt to the weekly cloud, considering that was the chart I drew the TL on, then it is assumed the week will finish under 6012. If it does not contain, then it is going to be an extremely volatile day on Friday.
Another thing to keep in mind is that we are in a similar situation after the dip was complete. At that point (And I called it.), there was lots of R, which created some sideways action, before the strong move north. Now, we are in for lots of S, before we get another strong move south. As long as 6012 contains, we should get an initial strong move, and then some consolidation and correctional moves, and then we get the thrust.

From your analysis, I assume that are not aware of Thursday being a holiday here and we have only more trading day this week. So your reference to Friday is actually Monday , isn't it ?

 

[sramu1]

Of course ... AND you will see it .. maybe in Hindsight .. coz NOT EVERYONE can see what is being put in front of them ....

The same pattern can look bearish to one and bullish to another. Sometimes someone is fooled by the market .. that does not mean that he does not know the market or TA or whatever tools he uses to check the market are false.

Rest ... you are entitled to think and write whatever you want to .. so with me and so with Mr 4x ... its the understanding part which is tough and the believing part which is the hardest ...

Of cors .. HINDSIGHT is always 20/20 .that applies to TA as well. There is absolutely no fool -proof method. As long as the error or delayed trends in TA (In this case from bearish to Bullish) is recognized early the damage can be reduced. Unfortunately there is no silver bullet in predicting the market. This is the nature of the beast.

My 2 cents

 

[sanjosedesi]

Of cors .. HINDSIGHT is always 20/20 .that applies to TA as well. There is absolutely no fool -proof method. As long as the error or delayed trends in TA (In this case from bearish to Bullish) is recognized early the damage can be reduced. Unfortunately there is no silver bullet in predicting the market. This is the nature of the beast.

I agree. My perspective below.
While trading, we are trying to balance 2 objectives.

#1. Accuracy
#2. Volumes

If I make only 1 trade in a year, or once in a lifetime, unless I make a bad call like investing in Nasdaq-2001 or Unitech-2010, I will most likely (99.9%) be right. I can pick an index to be safe rather than a company. However, we are not talking about doing one trade, there are people who earn living just by trading, and I bet one trade can not sustain them. So some sort of volume is imperative.

On the other hand, if I make million trades a year (going to the other extreme), being right matters, but not to the extent that I have to be right 100%. As Mr Pips says, he is accurate 85% of the time. Subtract the 15% times he is wrong, and you get a net gain 70% time. With good stop loss management, or assuming that gains and losses are of equal size, that is something to be proud of. So I could be wrong 150K times in a year and still come out way ahead !!!

In my opinion, I do not think you can find any person who can do 1000 trades in a row without missing one (except maybe some market movers colluding with each other ... but lot of people do not share my fear of them). Why 1000, let's make it 100 in a row ... you might find some people who got lucky, but not more than that.

Also, in my opinion, the same chart and the same data tables give different signals to different people, that's just the way we are built. If I see lines and patterns better, others read numbers and ratios better. If I remember this event happened in 1978 and then this was the next step, someone else might be able to correlate a Bloomberg newsfeed better with what's going to happen. Someone can use bollinger bands for profit, someone uses Ichimoku. Because that's what works for them.

To repeat ... the trick is to find a balance between your reading skills (tech, fundamentals or otherwise) and your urge to do volumes (so that you know which trades to skip) ... and the balance is something very specific to you.

Of course, given that we are not 100%, there will be hindsight. Some situations will give us more ideas (checks and controls for future, OR positive affirmation of what you did), whereas some will peter out as voodoo. But taking a moment to analyze it will hopefully improve the ratios.

** No reason to ramble ... just the discussion of hindsight triggered this in me ***

 

[sanjosedesi]

Mr Pips, I know you are not a conspiracy theorist, and this is not one of those questions. Friday in India is Infosys's annual results. It is one of the biggest companies and sometimes helps set the trend of the overall market, even though it might be only a small part of the index.

Usually what happens is that the results are announced just before the market opens. The market reacts one way first based on local commentary, and then completely reverses direction once comments across the globe start pouring in. If it starts low, it ends high. If it starts high, it ends low. Pretty much like the Wednesday NIFTY this week.

Now this is only my feeling and not prediction ... more so given the phenomenal jump on Wednesday ... that Infosys results will first make the market boom, and when the results start sinking in (3 hours into the market), it may initiate the journey South as you so much expect.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Sramu1, the reason I said Friday instead of Thursday is because I am aware of your holiday.
We're not that far away from 6012. We are looking for a close under it, because that marks the end of the week. TL's make for some very strong moves.
My favored scenario is that 6012 holds and we have the trip south beginning.

I am saying for sure it is going to be a volatile day on Friday, similar to Wednesday, because both days are the day after a holiday. That is just the nature of thing the day after a holiday, because you have 2 days worth of movement in one day.

Sramu, I don't want to belabor the point, but let me address a statement you made, because I think it is important for the benefit of others. BTW, I do mean this in a constructive, not critical sense.
In reference to the comment on the current position of the monthly cloud at 6K+. The cloud is not invalidated if it is never touched. The cloud only would serve, in this case, as R. The R is also relative to the close of that candle, as most S&R's are that way. As an example, the 6012 level comes from the weekly TL, so if the larger picture DOWN is to remain in place We need a close for the week under 6012, regardless where it may have drifted during the week. If we get that volatile thrust above it then the whole picture changes.
Also, a cloud's validity relative to a candle's positioning is not based on some dollar amount, but rather based on the look on the chart relative to the cloud, itself.

From your analysis, I assume that are not aware of Thursday being a holiday here and we have only more trading day this week. So your reference to Friday is actually Monday , isn't it ?

 

[4xpipcounter]

SJD, I may not believe in your theory, but as traders, this is the important point. You believe there will be volatile price action on Friday. I do too. We have complete different perspectives on it. I would dare not say your theory is wrong. Both our perspectives are going to yield the result we are looking for.
One thing is for sure. FA's create spikes in the market. So do days off. Both sides can be proven right by showing the history of it.
It also sounds like Infosys's creates the same kind of market spikes like the FOMC and the NFP creates in the currency markets.

Mr Pips, I know you are not a conspiracy theorist, and this is not one of those questions. Friday in India is Infosys's annual results. It is one of the biggest companies and sometimes helps set the trend of the overall market, even though it might be only a small part of the index.

Usually what happens is that the results are announced just before the market opens. The market reacts one way first based on local commentary, and then completely reverses direction once comments across the globe start pouring in. If it starts low, it ends high. If it starts high, it ends low. Pretty much like the Wednesday NIFTY this week.

Now this is only my feeling and not prediction ... more so given the phenomenal jump on Wednesday ... that Infosys results will first make the market boom, and when the results start sinking in (3 hours into the market), it may initiate the journey South as you so much expect.

 

[sanjosedesi]

It also sounds like Infosys's creates the same kind of market spikes like the FOMC and the NFP creates in the currency markets.

Yes, indeed.