Thanks Danwood. The TA's are starting to create doubt.
Let me share something about FA's that I think goes deeper than just personal opinion.
News and all that has to do with FA's creates many false impressions. After all if it is accurate that the tsunami is going to create that much effect on the markets, then why doesn't everyone just load up on the southward motion, and then after the move is over retire wealthy.
Why is this so? Because FA's are good for talk and to create a lot of rumors, but has nothing to do with validating any true trading positions. There is way too much hype in the media how news effects the markets.
Before I got on this site, which is only 3 months ago, I knew nothing about Nifty. I just closed 4 positions in forex that netted me +596 pips, and that is what I trade. Everything else is a hobby for me. I love it, and my ego says I love to be good at it, even my hobbies. Subliminally, I have taken Nifty and forecasted it live to prove all you need is a good set of charts and a sound methodology in order to trade profitably and consistently.
Just some examples. Media hype says that if the economy is bad the stock market should head south. Out economy has been in the tank for the last 24 months, but 19 of those months the DJIA has had a bull candle. Unemployment dropped this past week to a new 24-month low, but....the DJIA has plunged. I've been forewarning followers on my blog of this reversal. It's in the TA's.
On 9/11, the Twin Towers were attacked by terrorists, and we were told how that would devastate the stock market. We had pullback in the current uptrend, but that was because the 4-hour was OB, and it was reflected accordingly. The Twin Towers were attacked on a Tuesday, and if I remember right, it was on Friday that the market recovered, but it was also after it was set back by OB conditions on the 4-hour chart.
Technically, I'm saying to get the further UP from here is doubtful, but respectfully, if you want to trade based on the tsunami, go for it.
I'm not trying to negatively reflect on anyone, but in January, I got my demo account in order to keep up with everyone on this site on Nifty (I got tired of being left out--lol.). Many people were still very high on the Nifty going higher. I didn't know anything about Nifty, or even about the overall economic climate of India. I knew I had some charts. I knew I was crazy if I even though about entering a long on Nifty.
As I'm writing this, I just heard on the radio that it happened in Japan because of some earthquake. I posted in my thread around 7:00 am Friday India time that the yen was going to muscle up. Look what happened today against the USD, and all its crosses. Wouldn't a tsunami have a negative impact on its own currency?
You guys had to hear me go on in my little diatribe about fundamentals, but I just have to keep proving that in the end of the day TA's will win out. I don't follow news events. I find stuff out after the fact through someone else, like you, Danwood. My expertise is charts, graphs, and mathematics. OTT, I qualify as a very dim lightbulb--lol.
Dear 4XPIP you have done it again. But the Tsunami creates doubts in the up move. Thanks Boss.
