Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[4xpipcounter]

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First of all, it is clearly evident I am wrong concerning the top of the 4-hour cloud and the WR1 combo being containment. This chart is the hourly. The last candle from yesterday's price action confirmed I was wrong. Notice the previous candle, and the fact we had a close at 5506, which is one point above the WR1. Allowing for a margin of error, of the one point, and the close is what my levels are acclimated to, that should have been containment. It was not, and now things take on a different look.
Considering how bullish looking the weekly cloud is, and the fact even the candle knew that, as it opened the week half in the cloud, and half out, it now suggests the cloud is acting as support instead of resistance. It is also very evident that the market is going to hit my WR2 today at 5552. With the clean break above the cloud it is now putting 5687 back into focus.
Another thing of note is that the 5687 level was the original weekly tenken. With all the downside consolidation, price action has broken above the tenken, as it has already dropped. It is also acting as support. The reason 5687 remains as a target and strong R is that it was an original straight line. In the world of ichimoku, all straight lines are excellent points of S or R's. Also, it remains the upside target, because of its viability, and the fact the weekly stochastics is opening up.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Msrajendran, I trust that maybe I answered part of your question in the previous post.

One thing I would like to point out concerning the ichimoku is that there are lots of strong obviations for a trader's point of view, such as candle hitting a straight line, and then it will reverse, the excellent odds that if it enters one side of the cloud it will hit the other, a break out of the cloud, with the TK following close behind is a sign of strong momentum, chinkou crossing over the candles is a strong trend indicator, and etc.
OTOH, there are other indications that are not as obvious, such as what happened to the candle when it landed half in and half out of the cloud. This is another reason I have no idea how any trader can look at just one TF and make a trading decision off it.
IMO, the ichimoku is the best indicator on the market, and it has been an integral part of my trading arsenal for 4 years. Yet, I still consider myself a student of the indicator. There are many strong obviations with the indicator, as I already mentioned, but there has to be the discerning element that enters into a trader's decisions with regards to it. Even at that, the trader will be wrong, even using the ichimoku, occasionally. The combination of the ichimoku, stochastics, and my proprietary S&R's just reduces the amount of times I'm going to be wrong.

BTW, it is my understanding that India did not move their clocks up like we did. Is that right? If that is true, then it is 11:45 pm my time that your markets start moving.

you give some details regarding this cloud strategy,and lot of thanks

 

[4xpipcounter]

There was an oversight on my part from the original post on the hourly chart. There was so much going on, I didn't see everything.
I'm only saying this because I hope it may be of benefit to someone when I post the S&R's in the future.
In viewing price action relative to the weeklies, it is best to view them on the hourly chart. Notice on the chart the WR1 was hit on the 4th candle from the end. The rule is once the S or R has been hit, we get at least at 38.2% correction, and then price action, within the scope of my S&R's reaches a decision point. That means, on the correction, 5483 would need to be hit. If it does not, then we have what I call a continuation, and price heads to the next level, which in this case is the WR2 at 5552. Confirmation of the continuation is attained when the candle closes above the R or below the S. Therefore, we got confirmation on the last candle from yesterday. It is allowable for any correction from this point to hit the reference point, which in this case is 5505, Only a maniacal spike will now hit 5483 before 5552 is hit.
I stated the rule, but there are some exceptions, but hopefully, today will prove they are rare.
Another thing that has been a challenge for my methodology is that I am working with a market that has very limited opening time per day. I'm used to forex that is open 24/5, or forecasting the Dow or commodities, which moves about 9 hours per day.
You get to read, and I'm going to sleep with corporal tunnel from typing so much--lol.

 

[VJAY]

VJAY, there could be a myriad of reasons why we are not matching up:
1. Your settings. Are they 9,26,52?
2. I can tell the beginning time of your candle is different from mine (Not implying either way who is right or wrong.). This is why the shape of all your candles are different from mine. The first candle of the day, for me, starts at 22:45, and the next candle is 2:45.
3. The feeder will sometimes make for a difference, but this is a time it is not an issue.

If I had to guess, our settings are not the same.

Dear 4x,
1.Yes my settings 9,26,52
2.my first candle showing 00.00 and last candle showing 22.00 (in 4hr chart)..
3.which time I can use to get charts of yours exact ..

 

[4xpipcounter]

VJAY, mine is 2300 GMT, which is 1800 NY time, which technically is the beginning of the trading day.
Also, check your hourly charts. There should be no difference there. If there is, then we have a problem.

Dear 4x,
1.Yes my settings 9,26,52
2.my first candle showing 00.00 and last candle showing 22.00 (in 4hr chart)..
3.which time I can use to get charts of yours exact ..

 

[sanjosedesi]

Hi Pips, so I started reading about Ichimoku after reading your posts. As of now, I have spent maybe 2 hours ... not much to base trading decisions on. However, as you read, you get more and more questions in your mind.

#1. Would you be able to point to some old threads / posts where the model has been debated so that I can refer that directly rather than bugging you.

#2. How do you make your charts? Is there a website you get these from, or you crunch your own data, or is there a software?

Thanks,

 

[4xpipcounter]

Sanjosedesi, you're not bugging me.
Over at "Ichimoku Kinko Hyo trading system...!", the originator is Linkon. He has a very good and in depth knowledge of the ichimoku. We can also meet over there for further discussion on the ichimoku. There is another thread, but I can't remember the name of it.
There is also a web site I could direct you to, but ass far as I know, we are not supposed to post them on this site.
I make my charts directly from what is supplied to me on my MT4 platform supplied by my broker. The only piece of ulterior software I use is the one used to plot my S&R's.

Hi Pips, so I started reading about Ichimoku after reading your posts. As of now, I have spent maybe 2 hours ... not much to base trading decisions on. However, as you read, you get more and more questions in your mind.

#1. Would you be able to point to some old threads / posts where the model has been debated so that I can refer that directly rather than bugging you.

#2. How do you make your charts? Is there a website you get these from, or you crunch your own data, or is there a software?

Thanks,

 

[VJAY]

VJAY, mine is 2300 GMT, which is 1800 NY time, which technically is the beginning of the trading day.
Also, check your hourly charts. There should be no difference there. If there is, then we have a problem.

Yes on hourly..it's 2300.....

 

[4xpipcounter]

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I mentioned yesterday about the exception to the rule of a cloud break and the TK following close behind. That should mean the market is headed further up. This can proven to be an exception to the rule by simply plotting the ichimoku on any market, and then observing for self. Once there is a clean break of the cloud and the TK following close behind it continues on its same trail.
As far as what should have been a continuation with regards to my S&R's, that was an exception. When I say an "exception" is something that happens about 15% or less of the time. Quite honestly, if I had a chance to trade Nifty yesterday, I would have, and been on the losing end.

The spike can be interpreted one of 2 ways, and this is where I become a candle fan. First, the weekly cloud. 1/2 in, 1/2 out (Read previous posts.). Is it R? Is it S. Pardon the vacillation, but now I have to say if the stochastics are an indication, then the cloud and the stochastics are acting confluentially to suggest a move further north. The weekly candle has already dipped under last week's low, but there was very tight price action last week, which is suggesting a strong price break in the near future. If 5568 is broken, then we have a bullish engulfing candle, and then that effectively puts the kijun at 5756 on the radar.
If we get a strong close above the 4-hour cloud, currently at 5484, then we can treat yesterday's spike as nothing more than a mirage. The top of tihs hourly cloud is 5502, so price action also has it to contend with.

In sticking with my original forecast of 5687 being hit. I'll have to favor the cloud being taken out. We are due and getting very close to a huge breakaway. It is also rare for the candles to spend the amount of consecutive time in the cloud, as can be witnessed on the 4-hour chart. Again, turn to nay chart, plot the cloud on it, and you will see this to be true. Everything points to a strong breakaway on price action.

There is a calm doubt that I am expressing in the move UP, rather than the usual calm surety in my forecasts.

 

[4xpipcounter]

VJAY, I meant on the hourly there should be no difference on the look of the chart.

Yes on hourly..it's 2300.....