NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Extreme panicked opening, and hope will improve.
2403 as mentioned above just about survived at 2405.
The midcaps are not too badly hit over all....as yet.

 

[AMITBE]

It's vital to climb above 2436 and 2454.

 

[AMITBE]

Some interim supports at current levels:
2406-2412-2414-2417-2422.
To the up, 2436 to clear is the immediate goal.

 

[dpkshny]

Hi Amit,

Today, In a Tea shop near a broker's office, I listened 2 guys talking about stock markets. One was a middle-aged and the other one was a young man. Middle-aged man was holding a cigarette in one hand and tea in a plastic cup in the other hand. This guy was advising the younger one to get out of the markets... whether loss or profit... immediately. According to him the correct level for the sensex should be 6800 - 7200. He was saying this bull run is due to FII's and they have manipulated the markets just like those penny stock manipulators. Now, these FII's are pulling out slowly and all the small investors and Indian mutual funds are in for a big loss, and markets will fall to below 7500 within 3 to 6 months...

Amit, please check this out. Is it true that FII's are pulling out? Are we in for a big shock?

Also, Saint Supratik traderji and all senior members What is your view on this...


Regards

Deepak JS

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Amit,

Today, In a Tea shop near a broker's office, I listened 2 guys talking about stock markets. One was a middle-aged and the other one was a young man. Middle-aged man was holding a cigarette in one hand and tea in a plastic cup in the other hand. This guy was advising the younger one to get out of the markets... whether loss or profit... immediately. According to him the correct level for the sensex should be 6800 - 7200. He was saying this bull run is due to FII's and they have manipulated the markets just like those penny stock manipulators. Now, these FII's are pulling out slowly and all the small investors and Indian mutual funds are in for a big loss, and markets will fall to below 7500 within 3 to 6 months...

Amit, please check this out. Is it true that FII's are pulling out? Are we in for a big shock?

Also, Saint Supratik traderji and all senior members What is your view on this...


Regards

Deepak JS

Hi Deepak, the older man with the tea and cigarette is right to the extent this bull run has been liquidity driven, and the FIIs have been the major source. The domestic funds too have collected investors' money and pumped it in a big way.
Corrections and consolidations are a part of this universe and to that extent what is happening now was being cautioned about by many of us here at this forum, and elsewhere.
To cut back to a few weeks ago, the market was running away with a heady state of impudence, where if on any day the indexes didn't clock chunky gains, it felt like a let down. If the consolidation then had happened in time, we would have been spared this pain. But there was reckless buying all round and valuations were being stretched beyond the call of sanity. So this had to happen, for, as in nature, as in every sphere of the material world, and so in the markets, balance would eventually prevail. The tangible value of everything tangible has to show itself finally.
From now on, past this correction, the valuations will be closer to reality, while there will always be the out performers.
As to the point that the FIIs are pulling out as part of some manipulative scheme, I don't believe it it be true. They have been pulling out money in a big way seeing the Rupee sliding against the Dollar. When they buy back the Dollars at these levels, they lose money. As the money is being pulled out, it's just not there to support the markets currently. This was seen yesterday where there was a nice rally in the morning but with no buying support it fizzled out badly.
Once the Rupee becomes stable, there is reason to believe that the new lower prices would seem attractive specially in the light of the good results coming out on most majors. The going will be cautious and extremely selective for quite some time to come.
For now the bad times do not seem to be finished yet. We may see more downside till buying support along with significant money inflow appears.
Please do comment.

 

[AMITBE]

The inablity to sustain above 2436 is causing persistent weakness. I we can't pull this off by close, the bleak weather should intensify further.
2416-2420 has formed the support band for now but may not hold too long without a cross over at 2436.

 

[AMITBE]

The supports again:
2406-2412-2414-2417-2422.

 

[AMITBE]

The problem here is the moment we hit 2415, the RSI turns extremely over bought with a negative divergence, and at 2409 we are way over sold.
2403 and 2406 are the major guardians for this round, standing in the way of the onslaught for the 2300s.
Just in case, 2396 is another level to seek support.

 

[AMITBE]

2396 mentioned above has held for now.
2392 and 2386 are two more.

I'm reminded of the Bob Dylan song called Blowing in the Wind. Not too off the mark, even if quaintly quoted here:

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
Yes, 'n' how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, 'n' how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

 

[naga2054]

The problem here is the moment we hit 2415, the RSI turns extremely over bought with a negative divergence, and at 2409 we are way over sold.
2403 and 2406 are the major guardians for this round, standing in the way of the onslaught for the 2300s.
Just in case, 2396 is another level to seek support.

Well Amit,
its getting more and more unpredictable as it gets deeper and deeper.. And that too with no imminent reason for correction, when all the results are so good..
Personally, with advice from u all, have liquidated my holding in 2600s.. Thanks again..

Also, i wanted to know as to how u calculate all these support levels.. like 2403 , 2396.. Interestingly, as i have observed, the downtrends come to a temporary halt at all these points.. think for a while and move on..

2396 has been amazing.. it gave a bounce back too.. i m just guessing.. to how many souls it has given a sigh of relief..


nagzu