True Amit : there are no guarantees, but for a macro perspective and a possible estimate TA suggests the 'retracement' rules which talk of one third to half (retracement) from peak levels.
Using this arithmetic, Mr Robin of Blackheath Investments (if I recall the names correctly ) had stated during a long interview on NDTV Profit last week (when Nomura was touting their 7500 target) that in the worst case we could see a level of 8000-8500 on Sensex in the medium term. The assumptions he made were :
- that we are in a bear market
- that the rise from 3000 (start of the bull run) to 12000, i.e. 9000 points, could see a 3500 to 4500 points retracement. (See chart)
Of course the situation would be entirely different if we are in an intermediate downtrend instead of a bear market. In this scenario the retracement would be half of the rise from the previous intermediate low (made in late 2005). This was the arithmetic explained by Traderji a few weeks ago in response to a specific query about his target.
Big question therefore is : are we in a full fledged bear market or in an intermediate downtrend (care .. these terms must not be used/interpreted colloquially, but in TA jargon which most of us would be familiar with). For an answer to this big question, look up to HIM for guidance
(My own view is we are seeing an intermediate downtrend, which should last a few weeks more, unless crude threatens to touch $100 this winter ... hehe)
AGILENT
Using this arithmetic, Mr Robin of Blackheath Investments (if I recall the names correctly ) had stated during a long interview on NDTV Profit last week (when Nomura was touting their 7500 target) that in the worst case we could see a level of 8000-8500 on Sensex in the medium term. The assumptions he made were :
- that we are in a bear market
- that the rise from 3000 (start of the bull run) to 12000, i.e. 9000 points, could see a 3500 to 4500 points retracement. (See chart)
Of course the situation would be entirely different if we are in an intermediate downtrend instead of a bear market. In this scenario the retracement would be half of the rise from the previous intermediate low (made in late 2005). This was the arithmetic explained by Traderji a few weeks ago in response to a specific query about his target.
Big question therefore is : are we in a full fledged bear market or in an intermediate downtrend (care .. these terms must not be used/interpreted colloquially, but in TA jargon which most of us would be familiar with). For an answer to this big question, look up to HIM for guidance
(My own view is we are seeing an intermediate downtrend, which should last a few weeks more, unless crude threatens to touch $100 this winter ... hehe)
AGILENT
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