NIFTY FIFTY

[Traderji]

Thanks Traderji for the update.

So to look at Nifty levels, 50% retracement is 2590-2600 area.
A 38.2 retracement is 2860 area. (This was yesterday's area of struggle)

At this point an important support is 2737-2697

Yes, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels for the Nifty are approx. 2850 and 2600.

 

[AMITBE]

Yes, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels for the Nifty are approx. 2850 and 2600.

Thanks again Traderji, for the confirmation.

For now to look at some levels above 2737

A line is seen at 3742-2747-2752-2757-2762.

Then 2767-2772-2777-2783-2788.

At 2756 now.

 

[rahulg77]

If the BSE SENSEX were to retrace 50% of its entire move from the June 2004 Lows to the recent high that level would be at 8580.00! A 38.2% retracement level of the same move would be at 9486.00

It would be best for investors to wait out the current correction and then enter long (on evidence of an uptrend) into the strongest stocks (stocks that have corrected the least) in the outperforming sectors.

Good evening,

wanted to clear something. what I had gathered so far was that every primary movement has intermediate price movements. Some move in the direction of the trend and some move against it( called secondary reaction). Now the secondary reaction normally retraces between 33 to 66% of the previous primary intermediate price movement.

So if we take from june 2004 lows, secondary reaction was around march which retraced nearly 33%. next move up from low of March retraced around oct 2005 which was also 33%. So If we tallk about next primary intermediate price movement( from lows of oct 2005 to may 2006) it should retrace between 33% to 66% from those levels. That would be nearly at the levels it is now.

Why have we taken retracement from june 2004 levels. Or are we seeing a bigger picture(Macro View)Like I have evaluated from june onwards, have you taken this on a more macro level making the rise from june 2004 to may 2006 one primary intermediate price movement instead of three like I did. If yes could you please attach the chart for me.

I would appreciate if you explain me your point of view. I am attaching how I see it in the charts. I have drawn stright lines above the candle sticks to show intermediate movement and secondary movements.

Regards

Rahul

P.S It would be great to see how u calculated yours and learn from your experience and sorry Amitda posting abt sensex on nifty fifty.

 

[Agilent]

Good evening,

wanted to clear something. what I had gathered so far was that every primary movement has intermediate price movements. Some move in the direction of the trend and some move against it( called secondary reaction). Now the secondary reaction normally retraces between 33 to 66% of the previous primary intermediate price movement.

So if we take from june 2004 lows, secondary reaction was around march which retraced nearly 33%. next move up from low of March retraced around oct 2005 which was also 33%. So If we tallk about next primary intermediate price movement( from lows of oct 2005 to may 2006) it should retrace between 33% to 66% from those levels. That would be nearly at the levels it is now.

Why have we taken retracement from june 2004 levels. Or are we seeing a bigger picture(Macro View)Like I have evaluated from june onwards, have you taken this on a more macro level making the rise from june 2004 to may 2006 one primary intermediate price movement instead of three like I did. If yes could you please attach the chart for me.

I would appreciate if you explain me your point of view. I am attaching how I see it in the charts. I have drawn stright lines above the candle sticks to show intermediate movement and secondary movements.

Regards

Rahul

P.S It would be great to see how u calculated yours and learn from your experience and sorry Amitda posting abt sensex on nifty fifty.

Rahul
If we are in a 'bear market', Jun 04 has no relevance because the retracement should have March 03 as the base (start of last bull run)

If we are in merely an 'intermediate downtrend' in the old bull market, then again Jun 04 will not be relevant, because Oct 05 recorded the last intermediate downtrend, and the retracement should use that (Oct 05 low) as the base.

(You may have seen my post 1431, with chart, on this thread )

Interesting to see Amit/Traderji's views

AGILENT

 

[Agilent]

Rahul
If we are in a 'bear market', Jun 04 has no relevance because the retracement should have March 03 as the base (start of last bull run)

AGILENT

Must also add that the retracement in such case will not occur at one stretch, but will be punctuated by a couple of intermediate bull rallies over the period of the bear trend.

Whereas in the other scenario, the pullback will be in one go.

AGILENT

 

[nonstopkaran]

i baught 40k shares last week but the average price now is 30k what shld i do hold r selllll

 

[AMITBE]

Some time ago Satya had remarked in the chat room that perhaps one should begin to revisit the old pages of this thread, to re-sync with the levels again.

I did so and found that there was a lot of contest around the current levels back then.
If anyone wants to travel back in time to these levels again, a good point to go to would be this, and perhaps a little to the back of this as well. (The virtue of documentation, eh Pankaj?) : http://www.traderji.com/equities/3066-nifty-fifty-58.html

From those pages one finds the mention of 2584 being one of the Fibonacci numbers.
This interestingly coincides with the 50% retracement discussed here yesterday with Traderji.
Further up 2661 and 2652 have been mentioned as important conflict zones.
2737 comes up as a level above which the Nifty was to enter a higher orbit back then.
2799 had been mentioned as a major turning point, an area that first gave rise to the centrifugal force theory of the markets!!
So at this point I am looking at this entire area where much action will take place, very likely, in the times ahead.
Wouldnt it be a great sight if that Fibonacci level gives us a double bottom!

Levels to the up, and these are long range levels: 2727-2732-2737-2742-2747-2752-2457-2762-2767-2772-2777.

Down below, also long term levels: 2722-2717-2712-2707-2702-2697-2688-2679-2670-2661.

 

[AMITBE]

Some time ago Satya had remarked in the chat room that perhaps one should begin to revisit the old pages of this thread, to re-sync with the levels again.

I did so and found that there was a lot of contest around the current levels back then.
If anyone wants to travel back in time to these levels again, a good point to go to would be this, and perhaps a little to the back of this as well. (The virtue of documentation, eh Pankaj?) : http://www.traderji.com/equities/3066-nifty-fifty-58.html

From those pages one finds the mention of 2584 being one of the Fibonacci numbers.
This interestingly coincides with the 50% retracement discussed here yesterday with Traderji.
Further up 2661 and 2652 have been mentioned as important conflict zones.
2737 comes up as a level above which the Nifty was to enter a higher orbit back then.
2799 had been mentioned as a major turning point, an area that first gave rise to the centrifugal force theory of the markets!!
So at this point I am looking at this entire area where much action will take place, very likely, in the times ahead.
Wouldnt it be a great sight if that Fibonacci level gives us a double bottom!

Levels to the up, and these are long range levels: 2727-2732-2737-2742-2747-2752-2457-2762-2767-2772-2777.

Down below, also long term levels: 2722-2717-2712-2707-2702-2697-2688-2679-2670-2661.

One point I forgot to mention was that yesterday was an interesting session:
After the initial dump, the Nifty moved in a gentle sideways fashion for the rest of the day. The trendlines were gently sloping compared to the flagpole like vertical lines we've been seeing in recent times.
I do hope the positivity such movements were exuding will now pan out, at least in the short run, even if just to make the markets aware that it has real legs and knees that work fine.

For levels, the important mark to sustain is 2772.
Then above 2777-2784-2788 a move can potentially come to 2793-2798-2803-2808 at this point.
This is subject to 2772 being held.
Supports are still valid as mentioned in the morning post.

 

[AMITBE]

One point I forgot to mention was that yesterday was an interesting session:
After the initial dump, the Nifty moved in a gentle sideways fashion for the rest of the day. The trendlines were gently sloping compared to the flagpole like vertical lines we've been seeing in recent times.
I do hope the positivity such movements were exuding will now pan out, at least in the short run, even if just to make the markets aware that it has real legs and knees that work fine.

For levels, the important mark to sustain is 2772.
Then above 2777-2784-2788 a move can potentially come to 2793-2798-2803-2808 at this point.
This is subject to 2772 being held.
Supports are still valid as mentioned in the morning post.

Having, it seems comfortably, taken out 2808 and if 2808 lends support, then the high so far at 2824 is not enough.
Meaning, should the Nifty hold above 2808, then above 2824, the levels to look for would be 2828-2831-2834.
Then 2840-2846-2852 would be in sight.

 

[adilsaleem]

What next Amit , looks strong here at 2852