NIFTY FIFTY

[Czar]

Ok dada maybe you are right but I would like a history check for this info...say the bottom of 2001/2 made were the majority fii's still invested or had exited completely ?? I think they were sitting tight....these people dont care what our index is today or next year...they know we will be more than 20K (maybe 20K after splitting it) 10years down the line, for them this is a correction in a longer term investment even if it goes to 5k...

 

[pkjha30]

There is one more point.

When in the last leg of bull rally everybody turned bulls and gone long. Meaning when everybody buys you also buy in order to sell higher. So when rally falters they become mincemeat.

I am noticing a similar pattern in other forums where every tom ,dick and harry is giving a one line wonders for sell and earn fabulous amount. Now if FIIs were to earn more money from this market(bulls already run away as you said) they has to take only BearBurger and bear sandwitches available on the menu card. Bears may not be sooo testy but enough to satisfy FIIs hunger and greed.

Pankaj

 

[munchikana]

I cannot resist myself from drawing your attention towards what has been reported in TV news channels since last two or three days. They are reporting that mutual funds are now having only 5% of their assets in cash and rest of them have been invested in markets. As we all aware these retail investors and the HNI have been robbed so heavily in this correction (or bear run, whichever term you may like) that they have absolutely no money to invest. So if the market tanks from here onwards, only FII can purcahse from lower down. If the redemption pressure on mutual funds increase, then FII will definitely make merry at the expenses of mutual funds. Whose money is with mutual funds? Ours. So the situation is so delicately poised that I have been wondering which side the dice will fall. All comments on this are welcome.

 

[karthikmarar]

..

Till today FIIs selling has not even crossed 4 %. So rest of their investment is at stake. That they can not afford to pull out everything without the risk of loosing their shirts too in the process. That much is fairly clear to me. if they continue further buying ( remeber they were net buyers for two days while market is tanking) they risk further erosion.

Pankaj

PK

I cannot but agree with you on this. The FIIs pulled out about 4%. Assume that they made another 3-4% by going short. But what about the value of their overall portfolio....caompared to early MAY... maybe down atleast by 12 -15% ...may be more.
So they have to stop this sooner I suppose.

Karthik

 

[pkjha30]

Ok dada maybe you are right but I would like a history check for this info...say the bottom of 2001/2 made were the majority fii's still invested or had exited completely ?? I think they were sitting tight....these people dont care what our index is today or next year...they know we will be more than 20K (maybe 20K after splitting it) 10years down the line, for them this is a correction in a longer term investment even if it goes to 5k...

Hi

No czar . You willbe terribly surprised about the FII activities.

In the year2000, 2001 and 2002 they were net investors.

But there is something more. Their buy and sell operations were evenly matched.

That counts for Doublespeak.

You can tell me how long it lasted (2000 bear market)

Their net investment in 2001 was 55,271.6 crs and in 2006 it is 1,86,661.30 crs. Their gross purchase in 2001 was 238,837.8 crs. and in 2006 it is 10,78,045.60crs

Gross sell in 2001 was 183,566.3 crs and in 2006 it is 8,91,384.30 crs.

Now you should have some idea of their operations in the market. @006 figures is upto 6/6/ 2006 (from Jan 2006)

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

PK

I cannot but agree with you on this. The FIIs pulled out about 4%. Assume that they made another 3-4% by going short. But what about the value of their overall portfolio....caompared to early MAY... maybe down atleast by 12 -15% ...may be more.
So they have to stop this sooner I suppose.

Karthik

Hi Karthik
My point was in reverse logic. That is they are no fools to buy in a falling market when the risk of erosion of capital is great. Right now stocks individually are down by 30% also. So erosion is much more. If they are buying and also remain invested then certainly there is more to it then meets the eye.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

I cannot resist myself from drawing your attention towards what has been reported in TV news channels since last two or three days. They are reporting that mutual funds are now having only 5% of their assets in cash and rest of them have been invested in markets. As we all aware these retail investors and the HNI have been robbed so heavily in this correction (or bear run, whichever term you may like) that they have absolutely no money to invest. So if the market tanks from here onwards, only FII can purcahse from lower down. If the redemption pressure on mutual funds increase, then FII will definitely make merry at the expenses of mutual funds. Whose money is with mutual funds? Ours. So the situation is so delicately poised that I have been wondering which side the dice will fall. All comments on this are welcome.

Hi munchi

It is too early to blame MFs. They are no fools either. They didnot invest for the best part of the year and now they bought stocks cheap. They aren't much worried about global factors as they can't invest there as of now. Correct me if I am wrong.

FIIs have already started their buy operations and keeping sensex depressed is no problem for them. It is diversionary tectics they are adopting.

Further there is still much money to be made from one line wonder of the bear market which have flocked to the market sensing a kill. But therein lies the ambush. Before they realise it will be late for them. Once bears are done with they will have free run without fear of bulls or bears of desi variety.

Pankaj

 

[Czar]

well another thing dada, for the money they have & can raise & the fact that they know this Indian story is for keeps... a 5 billion sell order & temp booking profits is no harm... then at 1/5 of top prices they can shop easily the same things for 2 years odd till things are made to move again,

The mind of ops & fii may run like this....toy with the retailers & m.funds (which infact is us invested) make them average & reaverage...after which its easy for them to make out that the buying power is exhausted, they tank the market so whoever & whatever will offload finally at 1/5th prices where they can pick up 5 times atleast of that 5 billion sell out... think both ways...to see both possibilities...

like now I would make a lucky gues that the massive m.funds collection is already invested at these levels & ofcourse some liquidity has to be there for redemptions so now if they accelerate the fall it is the most likely move to freeze the last moment exiters from exitting..

 

[pkjha30]

well another thing dada, for the money they have & can raise & the fact that they know this Indian story is for keeps... a 5 billion sell order & temp booking profits is no harm... then at 1/5 of top prices they can shop easily the same things for 2 years odd till things are made to move again,

The mind of ops & fii may run like this....toy with the retailers & m.funds (which infact is us invested) make them average & reaverage...after which its easy for them to make out that the buying power is exhausted, they tank the market so whoever & whatever will offload finally at 1/5th prices where they can pick up 5 times atleast of that 5 billion sell out... think both ways...to see both possibilities...

like now I would make a lucky gues that the massive m.funds collection is already invested at these levels & ofcourse some liquidity has to be there for redemptions so now if they accelerate the fall it is the most likely move to freeze the last moment exiters from exitting..

An investment of 186661 crs. At 1/5th of prices it will be 37332 crs.

They might become the last man standing for a loooong loooooong time to come.

I don't think they are fools either to invest further after it tanks to 1/5th. Remember NIkkei . Still not recovered.

Pankaj

 

[rheinu]

I cannot resist myself from drawing your attention towards what has been reported in TV news channels since last two or three days. They are reporting that mutual funds are now having only 5% of their assets in cash and rest of them have been invested in markets. As we all aware these retail investors and the HNI have been robbed so heavily in this correction (or bear run, whichever term you may like) that they have absolutely no money to invest. So if the market tanks from here onwards, only FII can purcahse from lower down. If the redemption pressure on mutual funds increase, then FII will definitely make merry at the expenses of mutual funds. Whose money is with mutual funds? Ours. So the situation is so delicately poised that I have been wondering which side the dice will fall. All comments on this are welcome.

dear friend,

The mutual funds acted on order of the finance minister to support the market. You can understand this frm Chidambarams Statements on Mkt crash.
On the first day of crash he was balming on operators spreading rumours regarding tax on FIIs. On the second major crash he was seen encouraging inveators to stay invested. And MFs danced to his tune. They dont look any where global or inside because it not their money it s ours as u said.
Only last week only our FM and MFs realised ``that Mkt fall is due to
global weakness.We dont know what he is going to find this week.