NIFTY FIFTY

[ravi1967]

hai amitji, please dont abandon us and go. as seniors, please do guide us in this turbulent conditions to fine tune our TA knowledge. i came into this forum as a novice, and now i can atleast read charts and predict to certain extent the levels, for the week. your thread was the first one i used to log every day.so please start a new thread to guide us in technicals, maybe explain every day EOD charts of any specific chart that catchs your attention with some specific pattren, so that juniors like us can atleast polish our basic chart knowledge.
bye

 

[AMITBE]

Hi
Amit

Writings are all over the wall.

The situation is abnormal in the sense when we analyse on the basis of Technical , it is assumed that indicators are sum total os all variables behaving in natural way. But in situations like this, assumption amy not be valid. As FIIs are the players who decide what conditions to create.

You decision is something which all have to respect and also understand.
Had you contiued it would have been a great record of struggle and how it panned out .

Pankaj

Hi Pankaj...you mean document this crazy struggle for supremacy between the bulls and the bears?!
That's a no-brainer.
Because at the end of the day they're all bulls.

Why?
Because in the long run the markets are going up.
Because money/power lie with the bulls.
Because winning is the greater goal to aspire for, such being human nature, and winning is generally associated with bull moves rather than bear pressure.
Because bears are seen as opportunistic leeches where bulls are the all-powerful heros.
And because the feel-good factor is when things are up rather than down, again a simple truth of nature.

As Laloo ( would say, 'jiski laathi uski bhains', meaning the one who brandishes the stick, the buffalo belongs to him.

The stick is the money-thump and the market the buffalo.
Money-thump is with the bulls, and theirs is the market.
The bears of today, whether Namura or Baron eek: ) would make more money on the way up than down.

I had once met an old Gujarati gentleman who said, ‘beta, market ko aise hi kabhi manda nahi karna. Agar ulta ho gaya to haath main kuch bhi nahi rahega’.
Meaning ‘son, don’t just go and short the market. If it goes the other way, you are holding on to nothing to bail you out’.
By extension the implication of that advice is, if you buy high and the market drops, you can at least sell lower and still buy some food for the family on the way home.

I’m bullish certainly, and it’s nice to just relax and watch things go by.
So…let’s see how it unfolds. I’m watching the market closely and trading small.
Documenting the action is basically what I try to do here.

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Pankaj...you mean document this crazy struggle for supremacy between the bulls and the bears?!
That's a no-brainer.
Because at the end of the day they're all bulls.

Why?
Because in the long run the markets are going up.
Because money/power lie with the bulls.
Because winning is the greater goal to aspire for, such being human nature, and winning is generally associated with bull moves rather than bear pressure.
Because bears are seen as opportunistic leeches where bulls are the all-powerful heros.
And because the feel-good factor is when things are up rather than down, again a simple truth of nature.

I had once met an old Gujarati gentleman who said, ‘beta, market ko aise hi kabhi manda nahi karna. Agar ulta ho gaya to haath main kuch bhi nahi rahega’.
Meaning ‘son, don’t just go and short the market. If it goes the other way, you are holding on to nothing to bail you out’.

By extension the implication of that advice is, if you buy high and the market drops, you can at least sell lower and still buy some food for the family on the way home.

Documenting the action is basically what I try to do here.

Hi Amit

No its not bull or bears struggles that is to be documented but the technical levels of nifty and how they are supported or broken that is of importance for future reference.I was reading you post not for entertainment or vicarious pleasure but for gaining knowledge . It always brings pleasure to know things in a better perspective irrespective of nifty being up or down.

I agree that ultimately all are bulls. Bear still belong to the forest or tamed for the show by the Madari( one of such shows we are witnesing now)

All your reasons for being bull is valid and in complete agreement with my line of thinking. This will also pass and I think sooner than later.

In my opinion Time for bears may be running out. But let us see. As for me I invest for growth and not for ups and down. I think market is not a zero sum game.

Pankaj

 

[rahulg77]

Hi Amit,

Even I think it is finally going to be bull. as you rightly said, ppl will always earn more if the bulls prevail. As of now whose stop losses got hit and they moved out, they can wait and for those who did not adhere to the stops will just have to wait longer to get their money back. I have invested to the tune on 21.00 lacs on the request of my uncle( he had run out of money) and now my capital is stuck as he did not let me sell it ( i had exited my side of the scripts a bit below my stops but still in profit). So all I can hope is no sudden need of money arises from my business till most of my cost is not recovered.

So for me its just sit back, see how markets can be. I think I am lucky as when I started learning TA i got to see a market like this or I would think using TA is so easy as every selection used to give some profits ha ha. Now I will have lot of time to study about TA till the bulls come back.

Rgds

Rahul

 

[Saint]

So for me its just sit back, see how markets can be. I think I am lucky as when I started learning TA i got to see a market like this or I would think using TA is so easy as every selection used to give some profits ha ha. Now I will have lot of time to study about TA till the bulls come back.

Rgds

Rahul

Very true Rahul..........and this one is an intermediate bear.Once you've tackled one long term bear and one long term bull,you've seen them all....

Great attitude,my friend!

Saint

 

[rahulg77]

Thankyou Saint

 

[Agilent]

Very true Rahul..........and this one is an intermediate bear.Once you've tackled one long term bear and one long term bull,you've seen them all....

Great attitude,my friend!

Saint

Well said Saint. I too hope (for the sake of most of us nursing long positions) that this one in fact is an Intermediate , and not a full fledged Bear market.

Curious to know the rationale behind your assessment ... others' views?

AGILENT

 

[Czar]

1 statement I noticed mentioned at 2/3 posts, here pankaj wrote: "n my opinion Time for bears may be running out." please explain why pankaj...

@amitji: "The bears of today, whether Namura or Baron ( ) would make more money on the way up than down." - naah, i beg to differ sir...
Anyways all here are bullish hopers... maybe be your hope may come true...but I think Indian markets are more with an bearish edge cause the hni / ops have got a billion people to scr@w

 

[amitt29]

1 statement I noticed mentioned at 2/3 posts, here pankaj wrote: "n my opinion Time for bears may be running out." please explain why pankaj...

@amitji: "The bears of today, whether Namura or Baron ( ) would make more money on the way up than down." - naah, i beg to differ sir...
Anyways all here are bullish hopers... maybe be your hope may come true...but I think Indian markets are more with an bearish edge cause the hni / ops have got a billion people to scr@w

Though we r striking distance of that low,but I doubt whether it can be breached for a long term.I dont think we may close below 2900 for a long time.Just my thoughts.And i exited my shorts at 3000(last week)

 

[pkjha30]

1 statement I noticed mentioned at 2/3 posts, here pankaj wrote: "n my opinion Time for bears may be running out." please explain why pankaj...

Hi czar

I have noticed certain pattern of FII activities which does not lend it to easy explanation. As I am yet to put my fingers on that I am not sure about the FII intenstions. I tend to agree with rag_ash that redistribution phase is going on while keeping indices depressed together with sentiments.

That is the reason to use the word "May be" else it would have been "is"

More than 5-8 % correction would bring us to the levels we had around octoner 2005.There was lot of FII buying at that level. So are they going to give away all the gains that was made??

Till today FIIs selling has not even crossed 4 %. So rest of their investment is at stake. That they can not afford to pull out everything without the risk of loosing their shirts too in the process. That much is fairly clear to me. if they continue further buying ( remeber they were net buyers for two days while market is tanking) they risk further erosion.

I will further check bulk deal data where much of their buying /selling will be concentrated.

So Time may be running out. Target figure may not be far off. To put a figure now would be to anticipate market on factors not widely known. World indices are different matter.

Pankaj