NIFTY FIFTY
- Thread starter AMITBE
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Hi Joy...always good to see you here.
The adjusted closing price fell back sharply compared to the last traded price only because the last rally came off the day's low at 3205 just about in the last 10-15 minutes.
I understand we go with EOD prices always, and I'd still go with the same while making readings.
But we need to look at the specific episodic unfolding of events this afternoon, and to make an assessment of the Nifty from all that, I'd still say what happened at the end and the last price suggests the coming of firmness.
By the way, all this is spot Nifty and not Nifty Futures.
The adjusted closing price fell back sharply compared to the last traded price only because the last rally came off the day's low at 3205 just about in the last 10-15 minutes.
I understand we go with EOD prices always, and I'd still go with the same while making readings.
But we need to look at the specific episodic unfolding of events this afternoon, and to make an assessment of the Nifty from all that, I'd still say what happened at the end and the last price suggests the coming of firmness.
By the way, all this is spot Nifty and not Nifty Futures.
AMITBE said:
Hi Pankaj...y What's more...you don't easily lose your cool...and I need to learn much from you!! 
Yes I need to figure out a better way of doing this.
Yes I need to figure out a better way of doing this.
You are not only modest to claim your's but also lavish in your praise.
Truly this is one of the hard times witnessed on Stock Markets. Many have been bloodied. All will learn a good lesson. I had my share of learning too. But time is a great healer even monywise .
Small investors and day traders will be bearing the brunt of this mainly for the lack of wherewithal and want of proper regulatory control.
I have understood the whole episode of UP--UP--UP --Bang--Down--deep down in a different way. Prior to this nosedive all foreign analysts started singing in chorus that India is overvalued. True Indices had a dream run for almost 2000 points in a short span of time. USA fed rates hike inflation worries and china meltdown all are by now familiar track to me. Particularly CNBC ignorants (or they have their own axe to grind owned by foreign news channel) claimimg to be clairvoyants of highest quality in shameless manner have also contributed to the nervous psychology of small traders and investors.
True they are being made to pay the profits to FII's.
Most of the investments of FII's have gone beyond their expectations.Somebody pointed out here in a thread that stocks are trading at 10 times their FY04 price and may be 5 times FY05 price. So naturally they would like to book profit while going is good. The problem is most of the time this rally was spurred by their investment. So they stand to gain and others stand to loose.
FIIs will come back again when market is clear of all weak hearted persons.
At 10000/10500 they will change their tune and sing praise of Indian economy. All will again happy as nothing has happened. Being optimistic I can say that FY06 will give a surprise finally. But main winners will not be Indian Investors but FII's and those Indians who invest black monies through Mauritious route (PN Notes). That is where Sitaram's role come in.Regulatory agencies role also needs to be scrutinised.
India will not go JAPAN way for its conditions are vastly different. In any case that peak(after which bear phase will set in) is yet to be scaled. Compare any indicators and we will find that though we are growing yet long distances have to be covered.. Companies ,which are fundamentally sound ,will only gain strength and when one is comfortable, this opportunity should be utilised for getting good stocks.This correction will tell whichcompany is GOLD and which one is RolledGold. I am sure this correction will not last beyond this month. Indian growth story can not be done in by FII's and politicians. Public will continue to make India a powerhouse that it deserves to be.
It is odd that in your thread I am sounding a note of optimism and faith in people of India.
One point I had observed earlier if NIFTY's or any stocks 's last traded price is higher/lower than that of closing price usually it opens with gap on the side os last traded price. So your approach seems logical to take last traded price as indicator of thing to come.
For those who have trading and short term investing as livlihood I would like to say that this forum is great. It talked about descipline in trading/investing.As SAINT would say Follow the trend, don't fight. There are others who would do that . You are not Bill Gates or Mittals. Honour your stops as Guardian Angels and they will protect your monies. Those who truly learnt the lesson heres would now be smiling. Those who relied on one line wonders would curse the market. This was the anguish expressed by AMIT and also by SAINT. But now it must be imprinted on the psyche of the members.
As for me I have seen my portfolio going down much much below and come back like phoeinix. Unless plimsol line is reached I am sitting tight and in black as coal overall.
Thanks Amit for all the lessons in this and other thread. Never underestimate your work and a vast majority of members and visitors are reading and getting benefitted by you. They admire you so keep up the thread
With Reagrds
Pankaj
Dear Amit
I was away for two weeks. Used to take a peek at some of my favorite threads whenever time permitted. I was rather shocked to see your post on stopping this great tread.Now rather relieved to see you back in action.
Yes I do understand your concern. This forum is slowly turning to a "tips" forum like the numerous ones promoted by many Tv channels. Yes... it is very disheartening to see great learnng threads receive much less response than what they deserve. Looks like people like their their fish served "Hot" and not at all bothered even to know how the fish was caught.
Ya... there are lot of intraday, delivery ..blah..blah.. calls ... all with five star ratings. ( Unfortunately there is even one from my namesake... at least this guy does not pretend to be a wizard and admits that they are pure 'bought' tips. )
At least the current correction will definiely teach many a lesson...about Tips...
Anyway it is nice to have this thread back Amit..
warm regards
Karthik
I was away for two weeks. Used to take a peek at some of my favorite threads whenever time permitted. I was rather shocked to see your post on stopping this great tread.Now rather relieved to see you back in action.
Yes I do understand your concern. This forum is slowly turning to a "tips" forum like the numerous ones promoted by many Tv channels. Yes... it is very disheartening to see great learnng threads receive much less response than what they deserve. Looks like people like their their fish served "Hot" and not at all bothered even to know how the fish was caught
.Ya... there are lot of intraday, delivery ..blah..blah.. calls ... all with five star ratings. ( Unfortunately there is even one from my namesake...
at least this guy does not pretend to be a wizard and admits that they are pure 'bought' tips. ) At least the current correction will definiely teach many a lesson...about Tips...
Anyway it is nice to have this thread back Amit..
warm regards
Karthik
Last edited:
Hello Amit ji and all the seniors,
I invite you all to pls have a look at my thread http://www.traderji.com/equities/6605-my-picks-intraday.html. Please give me five minutes.
All that i know whether it 0 or 100, is learnt from here. Learnt from you. And ofcourse how can i forget good 'ol Google.
And pls judge/rate it. Your valuable comment is very much needed. Pls Suggest me to how can i do better?
Thank you.
CopperDesk.
I invite you all to pls have a look at my thread http://www.traderji.com/equities/6605-my-picks-intraday.html. Please give me five minutes.
All that i know whether it 0 or 100, is learnt from here. Learnt from you. And ofcourse how can i forget good 'ol Google.
And pls judge/rate it. Your valuable comment is very much needed. Pls Suggest me to how can i do better?
Thank you.
CopperDesk.
Thanks for posting here CopperDesk.
I've been looking at your thread and it's all very good.
I'd feel happier if you supported these tips with some technical logic. That would also support the culture of this forum besides increasing your own learning manyfold.
Give a sound reason for calling these stocks, and if possible support them with charts. If you don't have a charting s/w, then go to BSE website and do it there and copy and paste it.
And then these calls besides being profitable, will become lessons for scores of people who rush to you thread for 'tips'.
Help them to become self reliant traders trading with pride and self respect.
Else, you're not really doing anyone a favour.
It's not really such a big deal to happen upon a stock that's buzzing around, and looks good to go up further.
But unless you know what lies beneath the hood, it'll be like riding the tiger and you'll never know how to get off.
Do take this in the right spirit and help support learning here.
This forum is special, and you'll know this if you have visited various others, where everone is screaming a tip.
Look forward to seeing all that I hope for from you.
Good luck.
I've been looking at your thread and it's all very good.
I'd feel happier if you supported these tips with some technical logic. That would also support the culture of this forum besides increasing your own learning manyfold.
Give a sound reason for calling these stocks, and if possible support them with charts. If you don't have a charting s/w, then go to BSE website and do it there and copy and paste it.
And then these calls besides being profitable, will become lessons for scores of people who rush to you thread for 'tips'.
Help them to become self reliant traders trading with pride and self respect.
Else, you're not really doing anyone a favour.
It's not really such a big deal to happen upon a stock that's buzzing around, and looks good to go up further.
But unless you know what lies beneath the hood, it'll be like riding the tiger and you'll never know how to get off.
Do take this in the right spirit and help support learning here.
This forum is special, and you'll know this if you have visited various others, where everone is screaming a tip.
Look forward to seeing all that I hope for from you.
Good luck.
Hello Amit Ji,
Thank you. One thing i must confess here that i simply can not read charts as good as you people. What i do is visit all the business sites like economictimes etc. looking for stocks with good upcoming results, grabbing new orders and like this. Then i make a list of 20-30 stocks for next day. After that i recheck these with sites which not only technically scan a stock but show you result in layman format. Checking international news, tracking international indexes and checking commodity prices. This is it Sir. Thats my recipe.
Above all I never tell anyone to invest on my picks. I simply post my trading plan for the day.
My only motto is "Easiest way to earn money is stop losing it"
I'm still trying hard to learn technical analisys. So pls give me some more time, then only i can show you charts. Is it okay sir?
Thank you again.
CopperDesk
Thank you. One thing i must confess here that i simply can not read charts as good as you people. What i do is visit all the business sites like economictimes etc. looking for stocks with good upcoming results, grabbing new orders and like this. Then i make a list of 20-30 stocks for next day. After that i recheck these with sites which not only technically scan a stock but show you result in layman format. Checking international news, tracking international indexes and checking commodity prices. This is it Sir. Thats my recipe.
Above all I never tell anyone to invest on my picks. I simply post my trading plan for the day.
My only motto is "Easiest way to earn money is stop losing it"
I'm still trying hard to learn technical analisys. So pls give me some more time, then only i can show you charts. Is it okay sir?
Thank you again.
CopperDesk
copperdesk said:
Hello Amit Ji,
Thank you. One thing i must confess here that i simply can not read charts as good as you people. What i do is visit all the business sites like economictimes etc. looking for stocks with good upcoming results, grabbing new orders and like this. Then i make a list of 20-30 stocks for next day. After that i recheck these with sites which not only technically scan a stock but show you result in layman format. Checking international news, tracking international indexes and checking commodity prices. This is it Sir. Thats my recipe.
Above all I never tell anyone to invest on my picks. I simply post my trading plan for the day.
My only motto is "Easiest way to earn money is stop losing it"
I'm still trying hard to learn technical analisys. So pls give me some more time, then only i can show you charts. Is it okay sir?
Thank you again.
CopperDesk
Thank you. One thing i must confess here that i simply can not read charts as good as you people. What i do is visit all the business sites like economictimes etc. looking for stocks with good upcoming results, grabbing new orders and like this. Then i make a list of 20-30 stocks for next day. After that i recheck these with sites which not only technically scan a stock but show you result in layman format. Checking international news, tracking international indexes and checking commodity prices. This is it Sir. Thats my recipe.
Above all I never tell anyone to invest on my picks. I simply post my trading plan for the day.
My only motto is "Easiest way to earn money is stop losing it"
I'm still trying hard to learn technical analisys. So pls give me some more time, then only i can show you charts. Is it okay sir?
Thank you again.
CopperDesk
Basically what you are doing is picking on a mishmash of fundamental factors and posting them at your thread My Picks For Intraday.
First and foremost, intraday play is not based on fundamental issues. Over and over again I've seen a stock fall on the back of announcing good results too. And very often when results come out they don't match up to expectations. Then the stock gets a pounding.
I'm not going to get into this at any length, but an intraday play is purely based on several technical factors like the trading range/volume of a stock over the preceding sessions, price action of the previous day, its high and close in relation to its open and low which would determin entry and stop loss and much much more etc etc.
I've also seen you writting 'fix the stop loss at your comfort level'.
This is not correct as a s/l is again a very technical aspect and a correct call on s/l is vital to intraday trades.
One can get badly tossed around cought in whipsaws if one is not aware of so many different things.
So, my friend CopperDesk, as you've written elsewhere, do get a good look into TA and paper trade for a while.
It does seem that you have a good instict for picking on some decent stocks. Instinct can also play in important role in TA, and so you may have a good thing coming up for you by and by.
All the best.
Going into trade this contracts expiry week that comes after the worst ever week our markets have ever faced, theres no need to get into any news of FM this and world markets that. All that is known to everyone who has anything to do with the markets.
Well ok, just to replicate, over the weekend the FM has been doing his best to extricate his foot out of his mouth, and the world markets as of this moment seem to have stablised
Ahone more thingthe UPA set-up at the center is celebrating its second year in office.
One just hopes it turns out to be an auspicious day in more ways than one.
This hydra headed beast according to me, individually must be held responsible for most of the damage done to the markets last week.
So yes, our markets have been the milking cow for whoever came along and fed it with foddermeaning liquidity.
Its been the golden goose for so many players, big, medium and small, both here in India and world wide.
And having made a killing here in our markets, where there is so much more left to kill going ahead, can the market movers really afford to kill the golden goose itself?
Theres no kidding about this, that if the market doesnt pull out of this spiraling fall, then we would enter a bearish phase.
No, but smart money is smart because it has learnt its tricks surviving many dogfights, and knows a great deal when it sees one.
Its just made a major killing, and now its time to stablise things.
Some stablising buying has to return.
The golden goose is still very very golden.
So to look ahead, I still maintain the view that the fall is over done, and a relief rally has a pretty good chance.
The last traded value on the Nifty certainly gives an indication that someone out there began a bout of buying.
The Nifty shot up close to 50 points in the dying moments Friday evening.
Yes, there will be strong tugs to the down for every attempted rally, but the deep gut churning drops should peter out.
Stay light and stand aside, is the way to go for the next few sessions.
On to my work here, for the time aspect where I had posted May 12 as a turn date, the fall started on May 10 itself.
Governmental meddling with cement prices had brought on that first down move, then around May 12 the metals markets world wide began the real meltdown in earnest.
Now, for every initiating breakout date there has to be a defensive blocking date.
For easy understanding, lets just see this as a stop loss date: There is a good chance that such a date will hold the slide. If its broken one goes looking for a date lower down.
So the initiating date for the move was May 12, and the blocking date was May 20, which was last Saturday.
So in effect, Id say Fridays close was the blocking date.
If so, Id hate to see a lower close on the Nifty today.
To look at supports, Ill first go as far down as Fridays low for now.
The line is 3245-3241-3237-3233-3229-3225-3221-3217-3214-3209-3205.
Some other levels are 3197-3189-3184-3179-3174-3169-3164.
To the up congestion is seen immediately between 3053 to 3285-3290.
The line is 3253-3257-3561-3565-3269-3273-3277-3281-3285-3290.
Then 3297-3300-3305-3309-3313-3317-3321-3325-3328-3331.
Will post again.
Well ok, just to replicate, over the weekend the FM has been doing his best to extricate his foot out of his mouth, and the world markets as of this moment seem to have stablised
Ahone more thingthe UPA set-up at the center is celebrating its second year in office.
One just hopes it turns out to be an auspicious day in more ways than one.
This hydra headed beast according to me, individually must be held responsible for most of the damage done to the markets last week.
So yes, our markets have been the milking cow for whoever came along and fed it with foddermeaning liquidity.
Its been the golden goose for so many players, big, medium and small, both here in India and world wide.
And having made a killing here in our markets, where there is so much more left to kill going ahead, can the market movers really afford to kill the golden goose itself?
Theres no kidding about this, that if the market doesnt pull out of this spiraling fall, then we would enter a bearish phase.
No, but smart money is smart because it has learnt its tricks surviving many dogfights, and knows a great deal when it sees one.
Its just made a major killing, and now its time to stablise things.
Some stablising buying has to return.
The golden goose is still very very golden.
So to look ahead, I still maintain the view that the fall is over done, and a relief rally has a pretty good chance.
The last traded value on the Nifty certainly gives an indication that someone out there began a bout of buying.
The Nifty shot up close to 50 points in the dying moments Friday evening.
Yes, there will be strong tugs to the down for every attempted rally, but the deep gut churning drops should peter out.
Stay light and stand aside, is the way to go for the next few sessions.
On to my work here, for the time aspect where I had posted May 12 as a turn date, the fall started on May 10 itself.
Governmental meddling with cement prices had brought on that first down move, then around May 12 the metals markets world wide began the real meltdown in earnest.
Now, for every initiating breakout date there has to be a defensive blocking date.
For easy understanding, lets just see this as a stop loss date: There is a good chance that such a date will hold the slide. If its broken one goes looking for a date lower down.
So the initiating date for the move was May 12, and the blocking date was May 20, which was last Saturday.
So in effect, Id say Fridays close was the blocking date.
If so, Id hate to see a lower close on the Nifty today.
To look at supports, Ill first go as far down as Fridays low for now.
The line is 3245-3241-3237-3233-3229-3225-3221-3217-3214-3209-3205.
Some other levels are 3197-3189-3184-3179-3174-3169-3164.
To the up congestion is seen immediately between 3053 to 3285-3290.
The line is 3253-3257-3561-3565-3269-3273-3277-3281-3285-3290.
Then 3297-3300-3305-3309-3313-3317-3321-3325-3328-3331.
Will post again.
So it does seem the longs that got built up Friday night squared up very first thing this morning.
There are manipulators at large of course, but mostly there is a lot of fear too.
At this time the Nifty is in a bit of a hole:
To the up it is in a difficult area between 3182 and 3214.
The line is 3182-3186-3190-3194-3198-3202-3206-3210-3214.
But first it has to remain above 3173.
Calculating from a major reaction low back in mid February this year, the Nifty just touched base with 3134 low, which is 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from that low.
I've been using that reaction low to determin some of my levels...and it's important level I believe.
There are manipulators at large of course, but mostly there is a lot of fear too.
At this time the Nifty is in a bit of a hole:
To the up it is in a difficult area between 3182 and 3214.
The line is 3182-3186-3190-3194-3198-3202-3206-3210-3214.
But first it has to remain above 3173.
Calculating from a major reaction low back in mid February this year, the Nifty just touched base with 3134 low, which is 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from that low.
I've been using that reaction low to determin some of my levels...and it's important level I believe.
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