Manish Damani

[rohitsx]

Article in Barrons:

well nobody actually knew john paulsen before he shorted the subprime mortgage market and ended up making about 20 b profits in that trade , even though he was in this field for over 30 years, he was unknown to the public.

One day he had this brilliant idea ,a genius idea where he decided to short the subprime mortgage because he taught that real estate was getting highly speculative and here what he did was unique ,he went to goldman sach , and said to them 'can you create an instrument that is filled up with the worst sub prime debt that you can possibly find , literally an instrument designed to blow up ,an exploding box of cigars' and goldman said ofcource we can create it for you john.

And then goldman went ahead and created a security that had within it all these terrible subprime loans that were bound to go bad even in an good economy, and then what goldman did was ,since you need a counter party to the trade , went to some of its clients who happened to be some very unsophisticated foreign banks and then said to these institutions 'This is a great instrument ,this is very diversified , a low risk security and will give you a high rate of interest ' and then some of these banks and institutions bought it , where as goldman knew well in advance these instruments were designed to blow up and it did blow up .

Goldman was accused of fraud and they did admitted that they did commit a fraud in the marketing of these instruments, and was penalized .

But what this goldman created instrument did was , it allowed paulsen to make this huge bet , but it was a totally rigged bet, it was designed to blow up no matter what

So this turned out to be the greatest trade and even if you knew how this trade came about , then you would know it wasn't great at all, it was something which was totally skewed in favor of john paulsen . The foreign banks who invested in it lost tons of money.

 

[DSM]

Rohitsx, Are you sure such poor language and grammer is from Barrons? Will appreciate if you can provide the original link to Barron's article.

There are many factual inaccuracies in your post.

It was Goldman Sacs, Deutsche Bank among others who as per their 'historical model' made up of interest rates, mortgate defaults thought they were making money off John Paulson, who did not know any better. They were happy to collect their premium and fees for something their model showed had never happened in the past. (Similar to many people who wish to make money by collecting premium by selling unhedged options. They basically do not understand risk. (The word is 'eat premium' in the dictionary ))

'One day he had a brilliant idea' - No the idea was not Paulsons, it was of his research assistant Paolo Pellegrini who came to John Paulson with the idea for the trade. The reasearch itself took a few months to complete. Paulson then hired outside consultants to do additional study and verify the data and analysis created by Pellegrini.

The money that made Paulson a billionaire came from betting on deravitive instruments based on an original idea of a trader at Deutsche Bank by the name of Greg Lippmann. Goldman Sacs only expanded on this to create CDO's and CDS's which Paulson wanted to short the BBB rather than AAA.

Goldman did have conflict of interest to sell deravitive instruments to collect fees, where as John Paulson had a vested interested to buy considering the payoff - going short based on months of research which told him that all those who were betting on the high yeild financial instruments were wrong. It was only about 4-5 traders (maybe less than .10%) who bet against the rest of the 99.90% and made their money.

And BTW I am no John Paulson fan. His fund is known for outlandish bets. His gains as well as losses are spectacular. Loss of : US$ 1 Bil. in Gold, US$ 500 Mil. in Sino-Forest, a Chinese timber company, a couple of hundred millions in European Soverign Debt and bets on European economic recovery.

Article in Barrons:

well nobody actually knew john paulsen before he shorted the subprime mortgage market and ended up making about 20 b profits in that trade , even though he was in this field for over 30 years, he was unknown to the public.

One day he had this brilliant idea ,a genius idea where he decided to short the subprime mortgage because he taught that real estate was getting highly speculative and here what he did was unique ,he went to goldman sach , and said to them 'can you create an instrument that is filled up with the worst sub prime debt that you can possibly find , literally an instrument designed to blow up ,an exploding box of cigars' and goldman said ofcource we can create it for you john.

And then goldman went ahead and created a security that had within it all these terrible subprime loans that were bound to go bad even in an good economy, and then what goldman did was ,since you need a counter party to the trade , went to some of its clients who happened to be some very unsophisticated foreign banks and then said to these institutions 'This is a great instrument ,this is very diversified , a low risk security and will give you a high rate of interest ' and then some of these banks and institutions bought it , where as goldman knew well in advance these instruments were designed to blow up and it did blow up .

Goldman was accused of fraud and they did admitted that they did commit a fraud in the marketing of these instruments, and was penalized .

But what this goldman created instrument did was , it allowed paulsen to make this huge bet , but it was a totally rigged bet, it was designed to blow up no matter what

So this turned out to be the greatest trade and even if you knew how this trade came about , then you would know it wasn't great at all, it was something which was totally skewed in favor of john paulsen . The foreign banks who invested in it lost tons of money.

 

[MANISH_DAMANI]

Article in Barrons:

well nobody actually knew john paulsen before he shorted the subprime mortgage market and ended up making about 20 b profits in that trade , even though he was in this field for over 30 years, he was unknown to the public.

One day he had this brilliant idea ,a genius idea where he decided to short the subprime mortgage because he taught that real estate was getting highly speculative and here what he did was unique ,he went to goldman sach , and said to them 'can you create an instrument that is filled up with the worst sub prime debt that you can possibly find , literally an instrument designed to blow up ,an exploding box of cigars' and goldman said ofcource we can create it for you john.

And then goldman went ahead and created a security that had within it all these terrible subprime loans that were bound to go bad even in an good economy, and then what goldman did was ,since you need a counter party to the trade , went to some of its clients who happened to be some very unsophisticated foreign banks and then said to these institutions 'This is a great instrument ,this is very diversified , a low risk security and will give you a high rate of interest ' and then some of these banks and institutions bought it , where as goldman knew well in advance these instruments were designed to blow up and it did blow up .

Goldman was accused of fraud and they did admitted that they did commit a fraud in the marketing of these instruments, and was penalized .

But what this goldman created instrument did was , it allowed paulsen to make this huge bet , but it was a totally rigged bet, it was designed to blow up no matter what

So this turned out to be the greatest trade and even if you knew how this trade came about , then you would know it wasn't great at all, it was something which was totally skewed in favor of john paulsen . The foreign banks who invested in it lost tons of money.

Sir dont mind even today I dont know him.:thumb::lol:

 

[pankaj30071987]

Manish bhai any update on copper plz. max to max downside kaha tak hai

 

[MANISH_DAMANI]

Manish bhai any update on copper plz. max to max downside kaha tak hai

I have pm you my view as I stop posting levels here.:thumb:

 

[MANISH_DAMANI]

Some Silver Tip provider are missing with their expected monthly target, Some with small losses.All are claiming 80-90-100% success. For trading once in a day lots of indicator are their which could give 80-90% success if you have check on your greed and had some patients. For example 20-50 ma/ema crossover in 1 hrs chart give little good profit, macd crossover in hourly chart, Adx crossovers, Trendline breaks, etc. etc. Innocent people either dont understand tricks or dont have patient to watch.One of the best way to increase patience is go for fishing atleast once a week though I never gone. Trading is like fishing and depends on patient and smartness of fisherman. Sl will hit if dont kept properly.If someone is with 80-90% success rate then he should be a full time trader. There is lots of material is available on traderji and lots of website but have to work hard and give some pain to brain nothing is hidden. Many people left many post at traderji just you need to search.Ya about sixth sense that is to be developed by you that no body can give you. Never forget system are made by human and human are not made by system. So use brain along with system.Else never get good success because no system is full proof. There is combination of things on which one should keep eyes. If you thinK only TA that dont give you satisfaction if you think data alone that dont give you satisfaction, if you thing news or rumors that alone dont give satisfaction. You need to combine all factors have to work accordingly and take decision. In trading no second thoughts works. One decision one time one entry and one exit and instant judgement. Where second thought applied 80-90% you will loose. Personal experience.:thumb:

 

[DataRam]

Hi Manish ,

First I would like to say that you are carrying this thread brilliantly. Kudos to you.

Now I would like to put a query that after this addition of CTT , with RK Global how much expenses you have to shell out for a trade of 1 lot in Crude Oil ?

Thanks.

 

[MANISH_DAMANI]

Hi Manish ,

First I would like to say that you are carrying this thread brilliantly. Kudos to you.

Now I would like to put a query that after this addition of CTT , with RK Global how much expenses you have to shell out for a trade of 1 lot in Crude Oil ?

Thanks.

Bro at this level of crude now we are paying approx 60-65 in total after ctt it become 110-115.
Range as per my experience at Rkg me approx 60-80 whenever I traded earlier. Now you can add rs 50 to that. But if you are trading above five lots then you shift to achiivers but I dont know about their trading paltform and technical service part as not used.But soft trader is saying it is same as RKg then no problem but once check your self. I am also planning to shift their in future.If one 2-3 lot daily then RKg is cheaper for us yet after introduction of CTT also.:thumb:

 

[DSM]

Well said Sir.

Patience is must for a good trader, especially if trading intraday. To expand on the fisherman analogy, a good fisherman will go fishing understanding the time, tides, weather patterns. He does not make impulsive decisions, and always respects the sea, so also a a good trader has to understand the time of entry, chart patterns, volatility, momentum and if he does so, his system will give a higher rate of success. And in all cases, he has to respect the market.

Some Silver Tip provider are missing with their expected monthly target, Some with small losses.All are claiming 80-90-100% success. For trading once in a day lots of indicator are their which could give 80-90% success if you have check on your greed and had some patients. For example 20-50 ma/ema crossover in 1 hrs chart give little good profit, macd crossover in hourly chart, Adx crossovers, Trendline breaks, etc. etc. Innocent people either dont understand tricks or dont have patient to watch.One of the best way to increase patience is go for fishing atleast once a week though I never gone. Trading is like fishing and depends on patient and smartness of fisherman. Sl will hit if dont kept properly.If someone is with 80-90% success rate then he should be a full time trader. There is lots of material is available on traderji and lots of website but have to work hard and give some pain to brain nothing is hidden. Many people left many post at traderji just you need to search.Ya about sixth sense that is to be developed by you that no body can give you. Never forget system are made by human and human are not made by system. So use brain along with system.Else never get good success because no system is full proof. There is combination of things on which one should keep eyes. If you thinK only TA that dont give you satisfaction if you think data alone that dont give you satisfaction, if you thing news or rumors that alone dont give satisfaction. You need to combine all factors have to work accordingly and take decision. In trading no second thoughts works. One decision one time one entry and one exit and instant judgement. Where second thought applied 80-90% you will loose. Personal experience.:thumb:

 

[MANISH_DAMANI]

Manishji,
Namaste. I want a favour from you. this is my personal request. I shall be thankful to you. I badly need a NCDEX broker who have Algo software for trading at reasonable rate. I have been doing arbitrage even before online started i,e when there was outcry trading. since then I was earning sufficient. but after algo trading I am unable to do . I daily spent too many hrs, but it is my bad luck that I am not able to find such broker. there are lot of MCX brokers as I told you earlier also. but I did not find ncdex broker yet. there are lot of brokers with algo and they want clients, but I am not able to found. pl help me in locating.

Sir trust me whenever I get any info I will post you. Even I am not getting it.Why dont you talk to arbitrage guys they could help you. They use Reuters, Bloomberg services for this.Try to find with them.Your purpose will solve their only.:thumb: