Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[RavishReport]

This is not my analysis.... From one website.....i just copied and posting here..

Nifty view from the website says

"Main trend has taken support at 6031.36 and Sub trend taken support at 6025.10.

If these levels are broken on closing basis further fall is intact.

He says uptrend may continue to the level of 6168.40 / 6208.40 s/l is 6025.10 closing basis "

Take your own decision and trade.

If 6000 is broken again on Monday then more downfall to 5920 is expected.

 

[Somatung]

Interesting point re Std. Deviations. Will look into it.

I think you have mixed up my comment with Timepass's original post. You are making one small wrong assumption - I do not trade daily. By temperament I am a long term positional investor. I am looking at developing a set of rules, for myself, mainly to create a secondary stream of income for the short term. I am looking to undertake a couple of trades, per month, in F&O so that I do not have to touch my long term corpus.

This is a good idea. As you say future and options, did you have a look at strategies which include both of those derivatives such as synthetic calls and puts? As you do positional trades on bigger time frames, such strategies do serve the purpose of your main idea including reducing risk to your side.

 

[sridhar]

This is a good idea. As you say future and options, did you have a look at strategies which include both of those derivatives such as synthetic calls and puts? As you do positional trades on bigger time frames, such strategies do serve the purpose of your main idea including reducing risk to your side.

Ok. some of my learnings so far :-
1. Have been looking only at options trading so far - buy sides only. Found that it works very well in the last week of expiry as delta becomes closer to 0.5 for approx. 40Rs. prices options. The Nifty tends to test top & bottom of its expiry range and one needs to identify this properly. Need to sell at resistance/buy at support & get out for 20-30% max profit. Only 2-3 trades are possible in the week.
2. Have tried out taking LONG STRADDLE options position on expiry day for a holding period of 7-10 days. Theoretically supposed to give 20-30% profit per trade, but practically not finding it very attractive or profitable.
3. Taking an Index trend reversal position, particularly in the last week of expiry, in a deep OTM option gives good returns (upto 5-10X!) if the trend reversal happens as anticipated. Unfortunately every time this has happened I have been travelling & could do only paper trades.
4. My main problem is that if I continue to sit in front of the computer & I land up taking all sorts of positions just because I am in front of the terminal. So need to have strict disciple.

Am now looking into Synthetic Longs & Shorts. Will need to fund the a/c for that and that is going to take some time. need to work out the ratio of Nifty to Options positions for best balance.

 

[prada]

Elliott wave is a handy tool in a trending market, however , it can work against you when ongoing trend formation is in question. Nifty is in a corrective mode for the last couple of months with intermittent counter trend rallies. IMO, correction is not yet over and lower levels are still possible.

@ Bobo, please check the labeling of your waves. There are overlaps. For this to be called a fresh uptrend, firstly we need to see evidence of impulse which is lacking in all the upmoves.

It appears correction is over and the 1st and 2nd wave of a new up-trend have been formed. On the hourly chart we are in the 3rd wave which began today. Below are the charts. Target is 6214.

Nifty Spot Hourly

image

Nifty Spot 10 Minutes

image

 

[Riskyman]

Don't bite my head off but 6369 on nifty is possible based on the patterns.

Hi that was good stuff from you to say 6214 when market was bearish. As they say the charts never lie. I've just started my journey into EW theory and im now reading a couple of books. I would appreciate it if you could check bank nifty charts and post your views on it. ( daily and hourly) Thanks.

 

[Riskyman]

i don't have bank nifty data

Would it help if i posted a daily chart of Bank Nifty for the past 1/2/3/4/5 years?

 

[TracerBullet]

i don't have bank nifty data

data links for historic 1 min data for amibroker.
Although it will probably not have for last few days sometimes.

http://www.***********.com/data/731...ta-nifty-banknifty-spot-futures-indiavix.html
https://docs.google.com/folderview?id=0B8e3dtbFwQWUZ1I5dklCMmE5M2M

Edit : censored link is for another forum - google

 

[moody_man]

Yea you have the news ready for the move

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101458530

Ukraine haunts again

 

[Riskyman]

The 5 wave upmove that began in BANKNIFTY on 14 Feb seems to be complete @ 10761-10786. unless 3rd and 5th wave both extend we should see a correction.

Thanks man. Ive been sick so could not be here to post earlier. Thanks again. What targets do you see on Bank Nifty if you see a correction?

 

[sanjeev258380]

Prada give some updates
Thx