Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[prada]

Nifty: Relentless selling continues. I've hedged my positions as I wait for the market to indicate that it has bottomed out. 5930 has held out in the morning session. However I expect Nifty to test 5850-5900 area before indicating a reversal. 5900 now becomes a very important pivot and 6030(closing) a very critical resistance. Key reversal is on the cards in a few days. Global markets are on the verge of bottoming out and this should perfectly synchronize with our market bottoming out.

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: I am not convinced with the market movement. I will begin to liquidate my long positions from current levels and start to accumulate shorts above 6100. IMO, bottom is not yet in place. Lets see how the market pans out.

 

[Option.Trader]

Nifty Update: I am not convinced with the market movement. I will begin to liquidate my long positions from current levels and start to accumulate shorts above 6100. IMO, bottom is not yet in place. Lets see how the market pans out.

Am struggling with same. Fii analysis shows shorts created at every level, but at same time nifty is making higher lows, higher highs and even OI seems to be built at 6000pe. I would be entering shorts between 6080-6110

 

[sridhar]

Am struggling with same. Fii analysis shows shorts created at every level, but at same time nifty is making higher lows, higher highs and even OI seems to be built at 6000pe. I would be entering shorts between 6080-6110

The buildup of OI @ 6000PE is what is really confusing. Are these guys playing for a bounce up from a bottom of 5900 or is it plain hedging of Futures shorts position? Anyways first gap in NF1 has been closed. Waiting to see whether 2nd. gap @ 5769-5701 will be closed in this series or possibly leading up to the elections.

 

[timepass]

The buildup of OI @ 6000PE is what is really confusing. Are these guys playing for a bounce up from a bottom of 5900 or is it plain hedging of Futures shorts position? Anyways first gap in NF1 has been closed. Waiting to see whether 2nd. gap @ 5769-5701 will be closed in this series or possibly leading up to the elections.

If there is an upside, will the bank nifty fill up these gaps and move up to 11200 ?? Anything is possible with the upcoming budget.

So far, Bank nifty has been struggling to cross the gap, maybe it will do so with a gap up, or collapse back below 10K.

and then there is the gap on the upside in nifty too ...

 

[ram2010]

Nifty Update: I am not convinced with the market movement. I will begin to liquidate my long positions from current levels and start to accumulate shorts above 6100. IMO, bottom is not yet in place. Lets see how the market pans out.

Whether you convinced or not doesn't really matter.

The fact is, nifty's next move will be decided by market makers, not by you or me.

A trader who is totally unbiased can only survive not others.

 

[sridhar]

If there is an upside, will the bank nifty fill up these gaps and move up to 11200 ?? Anything is possible with the upcoming budget.

So far, Bank nifty has been struggling to cross the gap, maybe it will do so with a gap up, or collapse back below 10K.

and then there is the gap on the upside in nifty too ...

Typically gaps on the downside need to be filled before an upmove. Similarly gaps on the upside will be filled before a major downmove. There are no hard & fast rules for this. Also generally recent gaps may not be immediately filled. It always depends on the market trend.

My wife, who has been watching the Nifty for 10 yrs., feels 5700 nifty gap may or not be filled necessarily before the upmove. We both agree that index tends to come down in the pre-election months. Considering QE3 tapering and the collapsing fisc. I get a gut feeling that the 5700 level may be tested before the general election.

 

[Somatung]

@Sir TP

As you are an intra day trader, any bla bla about: My wife watched for 10 years and so on will not help you in any way. My cat is eleven years old and watched me ever day during that time when she was at home. I do not expect here to help me in any way, expect that I realized that in each year when she had any kind of health problem, the weather became very stormy in those years.

Now coming to your gaps: As you trade daily, use the Standard deviation to decide if any gap may has any value to your actual trading. If it touches any of those STDV levels, you have to watch it. If it is outside of STDV 3, it is a run away gap on either the up or the down side. Good luck.

 

[Rish]

This is not my analysis.... From one website.....i just copied and posting here..

Nifty view from the website says

"Main trend has taken support at 6031.36 and Sub trend taken support at 6025.10.

If these levels are broken on closing basis further fall is intact.

He says uptrend may continue to the level of 6168.40 / 6208.40 s/l is 6025.10 closing basis "

Take your own decision and trade.

 

[sridhar]

@Sir TP

As you are an intra day trader, any bla bla about: My wife watched for 10 years and so on will not help you in any way. My cat is eleven years old and watched me ever day during that time when she was at home. I do not expect here to help me in any way, expect that I realized that in each year when she had any kind of health problem, the weather became very stormy in those years.

Now coming to your gaps: As you trade daily, use the Standard deviation to decide if any gap may has any value to your actual trading. If it touches any of those STDV levels, you have to watch it. If it is outside of STDV 3, it is a run away gap on either the up or the down side. Good luck.

Interesting point re Std. Deviations. Will look into it.

I think you have mixed up my comment with Timepass's original post. You are making one small wrong assumption - I do not trade daily. By temperament I am a long term positional investor. I am looking at developing a set of rules, for myself, mainly to create a secondary stream of income for the short term. I am looking to undertake a couple of trades, per month, in F&O so that I do not have to touch my long term corpus.