If one considers this year to be a bear market, I just did an analysis of how the Nifty moved (retraced) every time it moved down. The market has never given a unidirectional move without a sharp bounce back as the below data will show. This year has been more rewarding to swing traders who would have changed their position and direction of the trade, as soon as the market showed sign of hitting the bottom.
The analysis of the data shows that if one had followed a simple STOP AND REVERSE strategy to buy above the previous day high and held on to the position till there was a close below the previous candle low, the trader would be able to capture large part of the moves on either side.
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 29-Jan 6,112 4-Mar 5,662 450 7.36% 35
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 4-Mar 5,662 11-Mar 5,970 308 5.44% 8
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 11-Mar 5,970 10-Apr 5,478 492 8.24% 31
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 10-Apr 5,478 20-May 6,228 750 13.69% 41
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 20-May 6,228 24-Jun 5,568 660 10.60% 36
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 24-Jun 5,568 23-Jul 6,092 524 9.41% 30
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 23-Jul 6,092 28-Aug 5,118 974 15.99% 37
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 24-Jun 5,568 11-Sep 5,925 357 6.41% 80
The analysis of the data shows that if one had followed a simple STOP AND REVERSE strategy to buy above the previous day high and held on to the position till there was a close below the previous candle low, the trader would be able to capture large part of the moves on either side.
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 29-Jan 6,112 4-Mar 5,662 450 7.36% 35
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 4-Mar 5,662 11-Mar 5,970 308 5.44% 8
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 11-Mar 5,970 10-Apr 5,478 492 8.24% 31
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 10-Apr 5,478 20-May 6,228 750 13.69% 41
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 20-May 6,228 24-Jun 5,568 660 10.60% 36
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 24-Jun 5,568 23-Jul 6,092 524 9.41% 30
Move Date High Date Low Points % Move Days
Down 23-Jul 6,092 28-Aug 5,118 974 15.99% 37
Move Date Low Date High Points % Move Days
Retrace 24-Jun 5,568 11-Sep 5,925 357 6.41% 80