Starting Monday, how will the market open.? Will the open indicate a trend change.?
Fed tapering euphoria is done. The market’s honeymoon period with RR looks like its over. Scanning the news, we have the below headlines, and it is not hard to guess how the markets will react. The first indication of markets looking negative can be gauged from DOW close which was -1.19% on concerns about failure of budget talks, leading to the Govt. shutdown. (May not happen – but markets are taking a pessimistic view)
Basis US uncertainity, if the Far East markets open negative, we can expect a negative open in our markets as well. The USDINR PAIR WILL GIVE A CLUE OF WHERE THE MARKETS WILL LIKELY HEAD TO. There is the Germany election also to contend with the polls predicting a tight race. While Angela Merkel is likely to win, the market will like to do away with the uncertainity.
The only positive news is the FII investment data : As per CNBC, FII’s invested net 945 crores on Fri. against which DII’s sold net 790 crores. (Not clear as per format if it is Equity or combination of Equity and Debt as used to be displayed earlier. Referring to SEBI's website, it indicates FII net Investment in Equity at 3,558 crores, breakup of which is : Index Futures Rs. 3,010 crores, Index Options Rs. 1,094 crores, Stock Futures -922 crores, Stock Options -64 crores. Balance 440 crores equities? Not explained)
So tomorrow’s close will decide if the tide has turned. Let’s see….
P.S : From the market rumors it seems likely that Janet Yellen will be confirmed in place of Ben Bernanke, and an announcement will be made as soon as 23rd. (Monday)? While Yellen's appointment is discounted by the market - an early appointment can provide a cheer to the Bulls riding the DOW the ripples of which can also be felt in our market.
Headlines :
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Another 0.50% repo hikes in the offing - Times of India, 22nd Sep.
Budget talks - Looming US Govt. shutdown on Oct. 1 – Washington post, 22nd Sep.
DOW down -1.19% - Market Watch, 20th Sep.
Germany election - Steinbrueck Seeks Election Upset. – Bloomberg, 22nd Sep.
Sources :
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-the-offing-Analysts/articleshow/22888565.cms
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...e566b4-221a-11e3-a358-1144dee636dd_story.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...term-as-steinbrueck-seeks-election-upset.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/
http://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/investment/FIILatestSE.jsp?period=day