Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[prada]

Personally, I feel the move hasn't played out completely still. It should psychologically target 70 and above in the next few weeks.

Prada, your updates on USDINR please.. The RBI has announced some major policy decision regarding USD buying by the Oil Marketing companies. This is expected to suck out $13bn liquidity (about 33%) from the forex trading scrips because the OMCs will buy it directly from the RBI

 

[poortrader]

 

[poortrader]

greenshot screen capture

Nifty might try to go upto the neckline and form a lower top before resuming its downward journey. But the bounce have been quite big at least for today. So a short around neckline levels seems to have a better risk reward ratio. views are welcome

 

[prada]

Nifty update: I expected Nifty to find decent support at 5147 and rebound from there. Although, the magnitude of bounce back has surprised me, I still maintain my view and target for Nifty. Nothing has changed both technically and fundamentally. We are very close to testing the falling trendline from 6093 high. This is a rally from oversold levels and it should fizzle out in a few days. I maintain my view that subsequent reversal will be quite sharp and personally I hold huge short positions(from higher levels) in Nifty. Its a pity that retailers are the ones to always get trapped in these false rallies. My sole intention of starting this thread initially was to create awareness among the retail crowd so that they are alert at all times. Indian market along with its currency has become a CASINO for the smart money to say the least....

All the best to your trading.

PraDa

En route to test the various support levels mentioned below. 5147 should provide brief support for the market. 'Capitulation' seems to be word of the season!

 

[anup0212]

Nifty update: I expected Nifty to find decent support at 5147 and rebound from there. Although, the magnitude of bounce back has surprised me, I still maintain my view and target for Nifty. Nothing has changed both technically and fundamentally. We are very close to testing the falling trendline from 6093 high. This is a rally from oversold levels and it should fizzle out in a few days. I maintain my view that subsequent reversal will be quite sharp and personally I hold huge short positions(from higher levels) in Nifty. Its a pity that retailers are the ones to always get trapped in these false rallies. My sole intention of starting this thread initially was to create awareness among the retail crowd so that they are alert at all times. Indian market along with its currency has become a CASINO for the smart money to say the least....

All the best to your trading.


PraDa

you are doing good job, please keep it up ....:thumb:...no one here is expert and we all get surprised by market afterall it is pure business...nothing else...

 

[DSM]

PraDa Just my thoughts :

I had checked Nifty 60M charts after your call. They were in a strong uptrend and shorting seemed a bit risky. A drop/retracement was brought into. So did not short against the short term uptrend.

Your long-term positional call may well be right, but short entry is better taken once the market confirms the same. In my view it is better not to look for the top to short but to enter at capitulation. This way, even if we can capture 70-80% of the move, that is good enough, rather than see the market go 40-50% against our position and then eventually go down as expected.

The market has a tendency to surprise everybody, and they may as well open gap down on Monday, as everybody and their neighbor is long only. Let's see how it works out.

My 2C. i.e 1.31 Rupee at current exchange rate. Value may vary greatly depending upon Monday's USDINR open.



P.S : Look forward to your post as usual. Thanks for the thread and update.

Cheers and have a great weekend.

Nifty update: I expected Nifty to find decent support at 5147 and rebound from there. Although, the magnitude of bounce back has surprised me, I still maintain my view and target for Nifty. Nothing has changed both technically and fundamentally. We are very close to testing the falling trendline from 6093 high. This is a rally from oversold levels and it should fizzle out in a few days. I maintain my view that subsequent reversal will be quite sharp and personally I hold huge short positions(from higher levels) in Nifty. Its a pity that retailers are the ones to always get trapped in these false rallies. My sole intention of starting this thread initially was to create awareness among the retail crowd so that they are alert at all times. Indian market along with its currency has become a CASINO for the smart money to say the least....

All the best to your trading.

PraDa

 

[pakatil]

Traders who have missed out on shorting Nifty, can do so at CMP with strict SL at 5320. Target of 5030 is very much still on.

Modify the stop loss to 5380 on closing basis.

Allow today's move to play out without panicking. Sharp reversal is on the anvil in the next few trading sessions. Nifty target- 4770. One can look at accumulating out of the money far month puts.

Personally, I feel the move hasn't played out completely still. It should psychologically target 70 and above in the next few weeks.

Nifty update: I expected Nifty to find decent support at 5147 and rebound from there. Although, the magnitude of bounce back has surprised me, I still maintain my view and target for Nifty. Nothing has changed both technically and fundamentally. We are very close to testing the falling trendline from 6093 high. This is a rally from oversold levels and it should fizzle out in a few days. I maintain my view that subsequent reversal will be quite sharp and personally I hold huge short positions(from higher levels) in Nifty. Its a pity that retailers are the ones to always get trapped in these false rallies. My sole intention of starting this thread initially was to create awareness among the retail crowd so that they are alert at all times. Indian market along with its currency has become a CASINO for the smart money to say the least....

All the best to your trading.

PraDa

Now telling that you hold Shorts from Higher Levels........is bit cruel. At least pls tell till what lvls Shorts Can be held.

Cheers

 

[Rish]

In monthly chart, nifty downside trend is intact, minimum 4900 level.

In Daily chart 5503 taken out, then may be small rally upto 5589 level.

But, overall trend is negative. Sell on rise may be good idea, using hourly chart on reversal.

 

[prada]

Its best to clear the air of doubt that keeps persisting in the minds of some of our visitors, although I keep repeating what I say over and over again. I don't post my trades here and that is not the intention of this thread. If you read my message carefully, I've clearly mentioned " traders who have missed at a shorting opportunity" which means fresh trades. When I've picked the top most precisely at both 6228 and 6080 levels, why shouldn't I be holding short positions from the top, in the first place. I made a personal disclosure of holding short positions with an intention of only to exude confidence to the visitors of the thread who hold short positions.

This is for the chart gazers:

As you can see , we are close to testing the falling trendline. IMO, we have already formed the top, if not , then we are very close to forming one. 50 Day EMA has already crossed the 200 day EMA a few days ago ( the last time this happened was more than a year ago ). Bears have the upper hand in every respect and this is expected to remain so for quite some time to come.

Will update more once the reversal takes over from here...

PraDa

Now telling that you hold Shorts from Higher Levels........is bit cruel. At least pls tell till what lvls Shorts Can be held.

Cheers

 

[pakatil]

It never matters from where you are Short or Till when you will hold it.

All I asked was till when Fresh Shorts should be hold. It is always your prerogative to tell or not.

Any way.....thanks for reply.

Cheers