How to trade Commodities - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas

[uttamkamlesh]

Hey would anybody like to have all of Kamlesh Sirs' Posts in Word or Pdf???
I am compiling the same if anyone is interested do let me know. If anyone has already compiled please let me know so there is no repetition.

Please upload it at some place like 4shared.com and provide us the link.
I myself need the compilation.

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Hello Kamlesh

Very Nice thread, I will be reading few important posts from you once again. Meanwhile will try to practice few of the things you have given on this thread. Thanks for great work.

Is this a Valid WW on Copper Hourly Charts?

Current state, it has got support on BSL (type 1)

Thanks

PS: This is for MCX now will also try to see if similar pattern exists on the eSignal charts.

Yes it was a WW (as shown) but we don't always expect it to hit EPA line.

First Resistance to EPA : Trend line 2-4
Second Resistance to EPA : Point 4
Target : 1-4 line

We remain vigilant in booking profits. Go through the manual on WW.

 

[NTrader42]

Yes it was a WW but we don't always expect it to hit EPA line.

First Resistance to EPA : Trend line 2-4
Second Resistance to EPA : Point 4
Target : 1-4 line

We remain vigilant in booking profits. Go through the manual on WW.

Hello Kamlesh

Thanks for the welcome.

I did not intend to trade the WW on Copper, just trying my hand at marking the lines etc. Thanks for your feedback.

I have downloaded the WW Manual from the link you provided. Will read it few times till i am clear on everything.

Thanks

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Crude had been giving WW pattern on 30 min & 240 min. Twice there was reversal from 95 levels & both the times price found support at 100 HEMA. So, IMHO, we should wait for breakdown of 100HEMA prior taking position to trade WW. Would like to know Kamleshji's view on it.

Thanks

My view is: Now Crude is TRENDing up.

So we do not trade any WW against it. If we get any WW in any TF WITH the TREND we get a high probability opportunity.

 

[adityasaraf007]

Aditya,

1. TREND channel is at work, so we need to be friend with it.

2. Also, market psychology is that now it is active buying that is driving crude. Bulls should tire at around $100 now.

3. Well pattern is poor as a WW.

4. We see mini-WW from point 3-4 not 4-5.

Point noted.... won't short until it reaches 100 or shows Weakness.... Mini-WW was just one of the points which was favouring the trade.....

Some more inputs from my side:

 

[uttamkamlesh]

How to draw correct and precise Trendlines?

1. Draw a trendline as usual with two points of importance.
2. Now double click on the trend line.
3. Now put third point of trendline by dragging it to point 2 precisely.

Similarly you can draw horizontal lines for important swing Highs/Lows precisely by checking the level by putting cursor on the line for few seconds at far left and at far right.

If you have got horizontal and trend lines correctly, you would be fascinated to see the market action.

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Guys! you may download Trendline indicator from here.

TrendLines.mq4

It does not give exhaustive trendlines but i cross check my lines with it so that i do not miss any important one which others may be considering.

Trendlines of type-02 are not given by it. That we have to draw.

 

[atulas1]

Hello bro, pl send one for me. thanks

Definitely Sir 20% is complete

 

[NTrader42]

Hello

Trying to get all the Theorems at one place. Quoting the original posts by Kamlesh keeps the same formatting and we also get the charts / images.

Thanks

This is my Trade of the Year!

I waited patiently market kissing the trendline and was rewarded handsomely.

Theorem 01: During a Downtrend Highs/SwingHighs are to be watched first. (Similarly for an Uptrend)

Corollary of Theorem 1: If Highs/SwingHighs have been carefully treaded by the traders, take a note of this weakness in you analysis.


Well...Fibonacci Levels are there in the chart. Note that at the Equillibrium Point of 50% Values matched exactly. That boosted my confidence about my line of thinking.


OABC is my own line of thinking and terminology.

Theorem-02 " Price Momentum can not be killed abruptly where masses are involved. Every MOVE shall have a FOLLOW-UP move"

OA - MOVE
BC - FOLLOW-UP

Profit Booking by Heikin-Ashi candles- 1 candle back.

Market Action:
Before O : It was BUYING
O to B : SELLING for profit Booking on Long Positions
B to A : Short SELLING then
A to B : Short COVERING, exhausts at B
From 'Confirming' to C: Fresh Short SELLING

It is very important to know what the Market's Activity is.


Kamlesh Uttam

Hi Guys!....I just learn't how to upload nice images from ImageShack (choose do not resize option)......Thank You Savant Sir!

Well....See how without any complex indicators you can make Entry and Exit in Gold. Beauty is that Gold is in well Established Bull market, THE GREAT TREND. It would shout like anything before reversing no matter double dip recession or triple dip recession surfaces.

Theorem 03: A TREND IS INTACT UNLESS PROVED OTHERWISE.

Corollary: or in other words (Jesse Livermore even says): When in doubt, assume that the trend is intact. TREND would save you from any big trouble.

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Theorem - 04: Market follows the 'Path of Least Resistance' just like current.

(a) When market is loaded with Short positions (OverSold) and cannot go further down and there are signs of stabilization, stay alert a single trigger can surprise the market to the upside. As today is the status. Similarly for long positions.
(b) If market has formed a Resistance/Support line for itself, it pays attention to it in its next visit, It rebounds unless there is a great force (High ADX) to penetrate it successfully.
(c) If a market becomes constrained within two opposite type of Trend lines /bull-bear forces, it expands in the direction of least resistance. Driving force may be Risk/Reward ratio or one-sided market positions, HTF trend or whatever.

Theorem - 05 More Breakouts to the Upside are False than to the Downside.

It is a statistical fact so be cautious and always wait for confirmation. Refer Marcel Link's discussion on this.

Theorem - 06 SHORT SELLING is thrice faster in making MONEY than GOING LONG.

Just because of Gravity (Mass Mentality) working for it.

Check this out.

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Kamlesh Uttam

Theorem 07: EVERY CLIMAX VOLUME FALL ALMOST ALWAYS RETESTS ITSELF BEFORE RISING.

COVER YOUR SHORTS & GO LONG.........Dr. Alexander Elder


In this case Crude Retested $89 and and moved to $100.

Guys...Check this one out.

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Theorem-08: Low Volumes and Volatility are Often precursor to High Volatility in Price Action (PA).

Just because markets are dynamic place and their primary job is To churn money from weak hands to strong hands.

Theorem - 09: Every MOVE in the market has 'AT LEAST' 3 legs.

AT LEAST is a rare word when used in trading just because trading is a game of probability and markets are a chaotic place. So take a note of it.
This was the most precious fact (Secret) to me analyzing markets. Thanks to Robert Miner!

Well....as mentioned earlier it is important to know what the market MOVE is, i.e., what the market is doing basically
....BUYING or SHORT COVERING,
....SELLING or SHORT-SELLING.

As in the chart below you can see there are three legs OA-AB-BC. Those guys who don't use this fact just use indicators often get whipsawed and blame it to the markets or operators. What happens is that indicator may be finally right but due to emergence of BC leg they get confused and book losses or enter with wrong timing.

Corollary of Theorem - 09:

(a) If BC is weaker than OA (weaker means 1. Lower Volume 2. Sharpness (angle with the horizontal), 3. Price distance moved, 4. Not making new Low/High, )
Correction is over and MajorTrend shall resume eventually. BUY/SELL above/below B.

(b) If BC is stronger than OA (stronger means 1. Higher volume 2. Sharpness (angle with the horizontal) 3. Price distance moved, 4. Making new Low/High)
A short term Trend may be in the making so a further FOLLOW-UP is most likely event.

If it again makes a new High/Low or better if it Closes there, a new Trend is born at least in the short term, i.e., immediate TF in the analysis.

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Hi Nag,

I may trade any TF: 03 min, 05 min, 10 min, 15 min, 60 min, 240 min, Daily, Weekly.
Basically, Opportunity is the KING wherever i find it i embrace it.
I should feel convinced that i can repeat the same old fundas & success again.

There are two types of markets: Trending or Ranging.

Trending markets are easy to trade and perform faster, less prone to news / manipulation.

Theorem 10: A market which is Ranging in one time frame is a Trending market in another TF.

So, if i am comfortable with the risk of the trade i would trade that trend, be it weekly or 3 min.
That's why i keep on playing with different time frames in the chart, it's fun man!!!....


Kamlesh Uttam

Theorem 11: After a breakout/breakdown market is very likely to retrace back and get bounced off the Trendline/Level which it broke/conquered. That is the confirmation action for surer move ahead.

Trade any method but know it fully. Frame the rules and follow them religiously when you go live.. That's it.


Kamlesh Uttam

Theorem 12: TREND is the BIGGEST pattern. Trend lines the BIGGEST indicator.

Theorem 13: Trend REVERSAL takes multifold force as compared to Trend CONTINUATION.

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[NTrader42]

Hello Aditya

I tried GCI Demo, getting all spot metals and Crude but not able to find any MCX tickers on it, do we get mcx on GCI or its only on Broco?

Thanks