Amit's Trading Diary and Notes

[omufrench]

Hi,
I am logging in after a turbulent week. Japan was the key cause. The current rally was paused by events there. I am looking forward to find out whether it resumes this week.
I have had to do a lot of clean-up. All positions which has passed their stop-losses, have been taken off the table.

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
PIDILITIND, 289.40, -2.59%, 12.39%
OFSS, 2583.00, 0.44%, 1.60%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 86.02%

Explanation:
1. PIDILTIND pierced my stop-loss. But, it showed strength by moving up on Friday.
2. OFSS had been falling. It made an up-move with a gap at high volume. I took a initial position in Friday's profit-booking action on the stock.

Also,
1. BEML was picked up on 23rd May. It proved to very volatile. It fell below its stop-loss and never recovered. I closed the position at -8.24%
2. CENTRALBK moved down with NIFTY. It moved sluggishly for a promising up-move. I sold it at -5.16%.
3. BHARATFORG moved down past its stop-loss. I closed the position at -6.53%.
As always, the position sizing kept the losses at bay. I have been guilty of letting loosing positions linger. This was mainly caused by my belief in the strength of the rally. More discipline in execution needed there. :annoyed:

Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
After a jittery week, this week could mark the end of the bull run. Talk about "tapering the flow" has put the scare in people. Japan closed down. Nifty is down too as I log. The stock action seems to be focused INFY. People on twitter seem to be holding/talking about shorting the stock, as it is up on the news of Mr. Narayan Murthy coming back. Whether he can deliver, is pure speculation.

My portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
PIDILITIND, 289.40, -2.04%, 12.13%
OFSS, 2655.35, -1.40%, 12.13%
BAYERCROP, 1420.98, 3.31%, 15.42%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 60.35%

Explanation:
1. PIDILITIND seems to be tracking the market with an offset. I planning to dump it if it moves down. :annoyed:
2. OFSS appears to be consolidating after the last week's up move.
3. BAYERCROP broke its life time high at 1340 at high volume. I started my entry from 30th May. :thumb:

As always, please feel free to comment on any/every position.
Thanks for reading,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
The bull rally definitely seems to run out of steam. All the talk of "tapering" seems to be the cause. More talk along these lines could trigger a panic and lead to a spike in Gold prices. Now, as this is common knowledge, there should less official talk along those lines, to delay such a situation, as is the norm

My portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
PIDILITIND, 289.40, -3.04%, 6.24%
OFSS, 2724.09,+0.33%, 32.94%
BAYERCROP, 1428.59, -2.80%, 21.70%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 39.12%

Explanation:
1. PIDILTIND seems to be moving with NIFTY. NIFTY seems to be floundering for the last two weeks. I have begun to reduce my position. This time-linked position exit is a new thing, that I am trying out.
2. OFSS has been moving unaffected by NIFTY. It moved up. I took more positions.
3. BAYERCROP moved up in the bull rally. It seems to be withstanding the selling pressure for now. Time will tell , if it continues its up trend.

Thanks for reading as always,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
I am logging in after an eventful week. The bear trend was prevailing on all days except Friday. This seems to be the result of a strong yen. The "short-yen-buy-equities" carry trade has had to wound down. That could have caused a lot of margin calls.
I have had to dump everything.

My portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
GOLDBEES, 2638.00, -0.08%, 0.85%
NIFTY 5500 PE, 9.0, -17.22%, 0.72%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 98.43%

Explanation:
1. GOLDBEES trade is on with a new method. I feel that gold will appreciate with the fall in prices. It is like a long term short for the panic if/when that happens.
2. NIFTY 5500 PE were bought as nifty was elevated on Friday. I felt that increment to be short-covering session.
:thumb:
Also,
1. I dumped all the stocks, I owned - PIDILTIND at -3.76%, BAYERCROP at -7.06% and OFSS at -3.82%. I disliked the trade on BAYERCROP cuz of the loss. That position should have been trimmed earlier. :annoyed:

Thanks for reading,
Amit
[@omufrench on twitter] - It is more real time

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
The Expiry week is on now. The last week was all about Ben Bernake going TV on and scaring the everyone cuz of "the taper". This triggered the risk-off trade in which the sell-off in emerging markets occured and everyone bought dollars. The evidence of this occurance is that Stocks, Bonds and Precious Metals are down. Only avenue left is Cash.

I called the effect of the Bernake speech right. I am happy. I sold eveything on friday as the markets are very volatile.

My Portfolio:
Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 100.00%

Also,
1. The GOLDBEES went down. I sold my position off at -3.28%. The position was small and losses were in control.
2. The NIFTY 5500 PE went up. I sold them off at 22.22% gain. The market was very volatile and I was wary of holding it for higher gains. :thumb:

As always, any/every comment is welcome.

Thanks for reading,
Amit
[@omufrench on twitter]

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
It has been almost over 2 weeks, since the last posting. I was out of the markets, trying to discern a trend.
The markets have been volatile. It could be trying to make a bottom or taking a break, on its way down. It might take a week to discern a trend.
I am cherry-picking stocks with smaller positions. The latter is mainly due to my recent bad record. :annoyed:

My portfolio:

Symbol, Entry Price, %Gain, % of Portfolio
MBECL 48.18, 2.32%, 3.99%
CASH, 0.00, 0.00%, 96.01%

Explanation:
1. MBECL broke a resistance at 47.15 at high volume. There is an surge in volumes. The RSI is low.

Thanks for reading,
Amit.
[@omufrench on twitter]

 

[omufrench]

Hi,
This is another delayed posting. I have been busy writing a new back-testing application. The spell of bad trades has caused introspection. Of course, Buffet's quote - "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians" makes me wary of back-testers.

I am going to change the style of logging trades. I work as a programmer, making to hard post real-time trade. A weekly breakup of the portfolio will posted too.

I am bullish. I feel that Rupee touched its low. The willingness of RBI [$30 billion worth] to defend its peg, makes it hard to short it. INR-USD trad/peg seems to be equivalent to NIFTY/SENSEX value, these days. So as INR-USD goes to Rs. 55, NIFTY should go up to.


Also,
1. MBECL fell rapidly. I had an issue in exiting due to the illiquidity. I exited the position at -5.91%. It was a bad trade considering its size. Lack of Liquidity can be a killer. :annoyed:

Thanks for reading and all comments are welcome,
Amit

 

[omufrench]

Bot Nifty 6300 CE at 10.00 on Friday.

 

[omufrench]

NIFTY is volatile. RBI left stuff unchanged.

Bought more NIFTY 6300 CE at 5.00/-
Average price of position : 7.50/-

 

[ryan4ucar]

NIFTY is volatile. RBI left stuff unchanged.

Bought more NIFTY 6300 CE at 5.00/-
Average price of position : 7.50/-

what exactly are you hoping to achive buying the nifty 6300 ce when current nifhty is at 5755? save yout time and money