1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[sabhlok_r]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

SBIN Opened 1990 (High also same). Now trading at 1950. Heavy Shorts at 2000 CE. No positions yet at 1950, 1900. Even it is Risky, I hope it is worth taking. Today the Target could be 1920.

negative change in OI in 1950pe of sbin (-10K)...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

So the fight is going on for 5805 - Or the Positions are being formed at 5805. So let us wait... Look at the Options Chain and Trade in a Cool manner... No hurry is required...

Heavy squaring off happening in ALL PEs... So you can expect some PULL BACK before it goes down Again... At the same time 5900 CE has the max CHG in OI @ 4L

5600-6000 Pair is now trading at 65 and 5700-6100 pair is gone up to 75. So try closing 5600-6000 pair at around 65 (Sold at 92)

For Some reason MAX CHG in OI is at 5900-5300. At 5300 PE there is a sell and from 5400PE to 6000 PE there is squaring off happening.

The OI MAX is still 5600PE-6000CE Pair - So the Downtrend shall continue after a pause... But today there will be a big fight at 5800. Right now 5800 PE getting squared off. But from OI perspective it still favours BULLS... So the fight would be at 5815. Watch the fight from a distance and take the call accordingly

 

[sabhlok_r]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

For Some reason MAX CHG in OI is at 5900-5300. At 5300 PE there is a sell and from 5400PE to 6000 PE there is squaring off happening.

The OI MAX is still 5600PE-6000CE Pair - So the Downtrend shall continue after a pause... But today there will be a big fight at 5800. Right now 5800 PE getting squared off. But from OI perspective it still favours BULLS... So the fight would be at 5815. Watch the fight from a distance and take the call accordingly

Raj, how do u decide that square off is happening?
any input would be appreciated...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

negative change in OI in 1950pe of sbin (-10K)...

Yes that means PUTS are getting squared off, which should be seens as profit booking and 2000 CE are sold... But there is no couter position for 2000 CE at 1950 PE or 1900 PE... So that is the reason I recommended a SELL. Actually it is the same case with NIFTY.. But the OI in NIFTY is favouring BULLs. But for SBIN OI at 1950 is 50/50...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj, how do u decide that square off is happening?
any input would be appreciated...

When the CHG in OI is a Negative number that means Squaring off

 

[sabhlok_r]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Yes that means PUTS are getting squared off, which should be seens as profit booking and 2000 CE are sold... But there is no couter position for 2000 CE at 1950 PE or 1900 PE... So that is the reason I recommended a SELL. Actually it is the same case with NIFTY.. But the OI in NIFTY is favouring BULLs. But for SBIN OI at 1950 is 50/50...

so going by this logic, 5900CE has 6.7L change in OI and 5800PE has -2.75L change...with highest volumes

 

[manishbaba]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Option Analysis Tool.

Based on the Observations in the past one week, I am basically developing the Option Analysis Tool.

The logic is as follows.
1. The OptionsChain Data is downloaded from NSEIndia.com - using the url http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/option_chain/optionKeys.jsp?symbol=NIFTY. This link will always give the current month data. So we don't have to specifiy the expiry date
2. The Futures Data is downloaded from NSEIndia.com - This is more for information - using the url http://www.nseindia.com/live_market.../fomwatchsymbol.jsp?key=NIFTY&Fut_Opt=Futures
3. Find out where the MAX CHG in OI happened in CE and PE - This would be used to calculate the daily range and direction. (I had used Volume first but it is not giving the right direction).
4. Find out where the MAX OI is in CE and PE - This would be used to calculate the weekly / positional range and direction.
5. The daily range will be used to calculate the daily, Low, High and Pivot and similarly for Weekly.
6. If CE positions are greater than PE positions then it is SELL and vice versa.
7. Please note that this is just a beginning and I am not using any Price movement.
8. Based on further observations we can keep fine tuning the tool.

The tool can used to Analyze for any NSE Index or Stock which are traded in F&O.

Welcome your suggestions and comments.

Sir,
At the time of making tool, please keep us in ur mind, so that tool run on our system also.
Let me say u that ur previous versions were running on my system, but problem is with this new 3.5 version. So i expect and hopethat this Option tool will run in my machine.
Thanks and Regards
Manish

 

[anup]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I am getting confused..MAx change in OI is for 5300 put and all the other PE's change in OI is in negative..Does this mean people are squaring of the puts and change in OI for CE is max at 5900 call...We dont know whether people are shorting 5900 Call!! Itss very confusing

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

There is no point in guessing if it is short or long! Always take simple assumption that MM always short - be it CE or PE.

Also OI anything above 60L is a meaningful OI that may influence the trend. Otherwise OTM option change in OI is just a movement tracker and less important.

Let Raj clarifies it more!

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

SBIN Opened 1990 (High also same). Now trading at 1950. Heavy Shorts at 2000 CE. No positions yet at 1950, 1900. Even it is Risky, I hope it is worth taking. Today the Target could be 1920.

Close SBIN at around 1930-1934