Trading NR7 setup

[AW10]

Vijay - entry criteria depends on your trading timeframe. If you day trading then Tata Power is out of question tomorrow cause it has give
breakout today.. and gave a wide range day.. with good profit potential. If may not give same wide range tomorrow so forget it to daytrade tomorrow.

for day trading, the range NR7 day ie 20/oct was = 1405 to 1427.
So as per the rules given in post 4, you intraday entry for long shd ahve been above 1427, and for short it shd have been below 1405. With stop at the other end of the range.

If you want to trade on swing timeframe using daily chart, and want to wait for confirmation of break.. then you got the confirmation when stock closed beyond the range of NR7 day and on the side of breakout. Exactly like what happened to Tata power today i.e. upper breakout is confirmed by close above yesterday's range.

So your entry for long will be tomorrow. above today's high... i.e. above 1469.
If stock does n't go above today's high then probably this breakout is not valid.

These are just 2 examples that I have illustrated on possible entry. Please define your own rule/ timeframe of trade/ exit rules etc before you trade it.

Hope this helps
Happy Trading

 

[VJAY]

Dear AW10,
Oh Thanks.....now it is crystal cleared......the doubt came only for the swing trading.......but you cleared it all ways.....thanks

 

[rohangawale]

Thanks for wonderful explanation sir.

i just mentioned the entry point. but didnt mentioned the entry type i.e its swing or intraday, thats why it must be a confusion.

 

[rohangawale]

NR7 Stocks Triggered on 21 Oct:

[B]STOCK		HIGH		LOW[/B]
BHEL		2472		2425.2
NTPC		218		214.65
RIL		2209		2168.65
R POWER		163.45		160.8
STERLITE	834		818.25

NR7 stock close on 22 Oct:

		[B]21-Oct			22-Oct	
STOCK		HIGH	LOW		Close	Trigger[/B]
BHEL		2472	2425.2		2415.05	Down Break
NTPC		218	214.65		212.85	Down Break
RIL		2209	2168.65		2135.20	Down Break
R POWER		163.45	160.8		159.65	Down Break
STERLITE	834	818.25		815.55	Down Break

 

[rohangawale]

NR7 Stock Triggered on 22 Oct:

[B]STOCK		HIGH		LOW[/B]
ACC		776.9		761
AMBUJA CEM	90.5		89.15
[B]BHEL 		2433.7		2390*[/B]
HDFC LTD	2735		2656.1
M&M		909.5		885

*= 2NR7
BHEL was triggered NR7 on 21st also and 22nd (today) also.

 

[rohangawale]

NR7 Stock Triggered on 22 Oct:

[B]STOCK		HIGH		LOW[/B]
ACC		776.9		761
AMBUJA CEM	90.5		89.15
[B]BHEL 		2433.7		2390*[/B]
HDFC LTD	2735		2656.1
M&M		909.5		885

*= 2NR7
BHEL was triggered NR7 on 21st also and 22nd (today) also.

NR7 Stock Close on 23 Oct:

		[B]22-Oct			23-Oct	
STOCK		HIGH	LOW		Close	Trigger[/B]
ACC		776.9	761		763.45	No Breakout
AMBUJA CEM	90.5	89.15		90.20	No Breakout
BHEL 		2433.7	2390		2384.80	Down Break
HDFC LTD	2735	2656.1		2721.10	No Breakout
M&M		909.5	885		927.00	Up Break

 

[rohangawale]

Of the above stock mentioned
BHEL opened in gapup and made a new high of 2463.3 but not able to sustain making it false breakout.
HDFC was strong from opening itself gave upside breakout and made a high of 2762.9 and came down along with mkt.

 

[rohangawale]

NR7 Stocks Triggered on 23 Oct:

[B]STOCK		HIGH		LOW[/B]
CAIRN		290.9		284
HDFC LTD	2762.9		2687
HINDALCO	143.5		139.5
HIND UNILEVER	283.85		279.55
ICICI BANK	911.85		895.10
ONGC		1185.5		1168
POWER GRID	110.5		109

 

[vaibhavjain]

Dear AW10,

I need an urgent advice from you, as to what is our view of the markets for the upcoming days.

Today, with heavy weight reliance falling sharply caused Nifty not to rise in the way all other markets rose.
Now, Dow has fallen by almost 100 points as I write this, which is worrying me.

I am still bullish for the market long as 4900 and then finally 4780 is protected.

In fact, I took a positional trade after an initial triangle breakout, long term rounding bottom (or C&H), and then finally a double bottom formed around 4900 level with intermediary top at 5100 which broke, and should have given the target of 5300.

And now specially when an 'INVERTED HAMMER' has been formed today, which should logically hold down the current fall in index, and a bullish candle on Monday (which has to overcome Dow induced fall) will confirm the start of uptrend again.
So, what is your view about those levels, shall I still let my position rolling in, or close down in panic if the levels around 4900 get in danger?
Your view will be highly appreciated by me.

Thanks
Vaibhav

 

[AW10]

Vaibhav, I have been quite uncomfortable with the levels that global markets have attained in last 6 months. Yes bounce was expected but this bounce is stretched. GlobaL economy is in bad shape (u have to go beyond the numbers projected by govt.. In my view they are also manipulated so that everybody feels that economy is growing).

This has been one of the fantastic run on the market. My big picture is still bearish. All contrarian indicators are on the extremes and if we belive, that market goes from the cycle of extremes to normal behaviour.. then we are at the extreme of bull craze now (thats too in bearish economy). In last October we were at the exteme of bear mkt. Historically bull markets don't develop with straight reversal. They do go down to test prev lows and revert with double bottom or higher low. Test of 50 dma is not ruled out.. and if it gets worse then test of 200 dma (at 3900 level) is also possible. And the worst will be double bottom at 2250 level. Which one of this scenario will happen, I don't know now.. When will this happen, I don't know. For trading, even I don't need to know. As long as I am positioning myself to the trend, I just have to ride the waves till the time market tells that it has changed its mind.

Current uptrend has been showing the signs of weakness..so it is time to be cautious with long positions. Certainly,in my view, it is not the time to buy for long term. You will get better price then this.

I would suggest you to make your mind about what is your timeframe of trading (u can be trading intarday to intermediate to long terms)..but be clear when analysing charts and taking the trading decision. Market trend differs for each timeframe..

To help on this timeframe oriented analysis here are my views on different TF-
Long term TF (> 3months) - We are in uptrend. But I have fundamental doubts about the global economy at this stage so not convinced with uptrend. We have already travelled a long distance so correction might be around the corner. The uptrend looked stretched.. (in last 12 yrs of data, I have not seen this type of quarterly return >60% in 3 months)

Intermediate term (1 to 3 months) - primarily sideway with mild uptrend. Seeing sign of weakness, trendline is broken, price near/below 20 dma. Might be making right shoulder of Head and shoulder pattern.. All green bars are getting sold. Hence time to be cautious here. Wait for some more days to get confirmation of reversal or continuation.Till then we are going sideway.

Short term (5 days to 20 days)- Has been coming down from 5180 level..Till the time it does not break the down sloping trendline and makes a new pivot low above that, for me the short term trend is down.

I don't care for what media or others are saying.. These are the facts that charts are telling me .. and I risk my money on the facts given by chart.

I trade all 3 timeframes and have my current position as per my interpretation. I might be proven wrong by market..and my stops will get hit..So have no problem with that. If I am proven right by market..then will say thanks to market after booking profit.

4900 /4780 are support zone.. but when trend develops, support /resistence are only intermediate stops..and they get broken. They might work as turning point.. but rather then trying to predict that now, let market tell us when it reaches there..

As far as your trading decisions are concerned.. Plz don't trade based on my views. Make your own views. Listen to everybody but form your own view and stick to that. Also identify the point when your view will be proven wrong by market.. and trade accordingly.

We have to be flexible to change our view/position depending on what is shown by mkt.
If you think, 4920 or 4780 is good support level.. and if that is broken then u will change your view it is fine. U can wait till market reaches that level.. why to worry about that now. Enjoy the weekend.

Hope it helps

Happy Trading