My views on this discussion -
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On hrly chart the pattern took 15+ bars to make it..and if it couldn't last even 1/2 of those many bars.
IMO, events act as catalyst to price move. On charts, 4500 was anyway a resistence level. It took many bars to fall from there too 4250 level..but budget frenzy took just 5 bars to go back to same resistence
level and finally Resistence zone did what they are supposed to do... i.e. act as resistence and push the prices down..
Impatience traders / or traders who go by the rule book, find it difficult to handle..whereas if we give time to the price action to develop, the picture becomes quite clear..
If you go by the budget day and price action post budget day.. (Sunil has posted outstanding analysis on that in seperate thread of budget weekend).. two messages were pretty clear
1) Budget days have wide range..
2) Market falls after budget in more then 80% of the time.
This time again, price action just repeated the history (no brainer for person who trusts the chart ).
I will consider budget as earthquack event.. but they are predictable as we know when they are coming.. (known devil is easier to handle then unknowns)
We all may have different way to trade same pattern due to our own approach. Even if someone has gone long on ascending triangle breakout.. the initial stop would have been in the triangle zone (base or upward sloping line or projected apex of triangle).. It the stops were not moved to breakeven then still the trade would have been closed on Monday when market dropped below the stoplevel.
Starting short trade is just another trade. Some may consider triangle breakout as false breakout (price could not hold above breakout level for sufficient #of bars), or can call it double top at 4500 level, or reversal from right shoulder of H&S pattern there or divergence on the oscillators. All depends on what we want to see on the chart.. None of the approach or logic is wrong.
Hope we are enjoying the breakdown..
Happy Trading.
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On hrly chart the pattern took 15+ bars to make it..and if it couldn't last even 1/2 of those many bars.
IMO, events act as catalyst to price move. On charts, 4500 was anyway a resistence level. It took many bars to fall from there too 4250 level..but budget frenzy took just 5 bars to go back to same resistence
level and finally Resistence zone did what they are supposed to do... i.e. act as resistence and push the prices down..
Impatience traders / or traders who go by the rule book, find it difficult to handle..whereas if we give time to the price action to develop, the picture becomes quite clear..
If you go by the budget day and price action post budget day.. (Sunil has posted outstanding analysis on that in seperate thread of budget weekend).. two messages were pretty clear
1) Budget days have wide range..
2) Market falls after budget in more then 80% of the time.
This time again, price action just repeated the history (no brainer for person who trusts the chart ).
I will consider budget as earthquack event.. but they are predictable as we know when they are coming.. (known devil is easier to handle then unknowns)
We all may have different way to trade same pattern due to our own approach. Even if someone has gone long on ascending triangle breakout.. the initial stop would have been in the triangle zone (base or upward sloping line or projected apex of triangle).. It the stops were not moved to breakeven then still the trade would have been closed on Monday when market dropped below the stoplevel.
Starting short trade is just another trade. Some may consider triangle breakout as false breakout (price could not hold above breakout level for sufficient #of bars), or can call it double top at 4500 level, or reversal from right shoulder of H&S pattern there or divergence on the oscillators. All depends on what we want to see on the chart.. None of the approach or logic is wrong.
Hope we are enjoying the breakdown..
Happy Trading.
Till yesterday I had the same opinion that breakdwon is intact but now even now my belief has started fading (4140 region has been convincingly taken out).....
Can you throw some light why you still think breakdwon is intact?
Thanks......