Trading Nifty by Levels

[sudris]

I have backtested this file on stocks also
today according to this system buy for UBL was @ 478 then confirmed buy at 484
so i bought @ 484 n put targt @ 490, 494,498
SL @ 478

I've a query regarding the Daily and Annualized volatility. the values that you have entered in the sheet are they applicable to only Nifty spot or futures, right? In that case do we have to select the respective values for the desired stock, say UBL as in today's case?

Or you have it incorporated in the sheet by any other way?

 

[SavantGarde]

Sudris,

Volatility is different for every stock... here is the link to download from NSE same like Bhavcopy....This for F&O

http://www.nseindia.com/content/nsccl/FOVOLT.csv

SG

I've a query regarding the Daily and Annualized volatility. the values that you have entered in the sheet are they applicable to only Nifty spot or futures, right? In that case do we have to select the respective values for the desired stock, say UBL as in today's case?

Or you have it incorporated in the sheet by any other way?

 

[sudris]

Sudris,

Volatility is different for every stock... here is the link to download from NSE same like Bhavcopy....This for F&O

http://www.nseindia.com/content/nsccl/FOVOLT.csv

SG

Exactly, my point SG. Thanks.

That is why I have asked her to clarify it as she has not mentioned anywhere in her posts. Although based on the previous data(user input) she would have put some formula to calculate it. Just my speculation though.

 

[mithoon]

could anyone please tell me if there is a way to calculate the number of lots one can comfortably trade in any futures/options market,ie with regards to ease of entry and exit,where i can be assured my order will get filled at the price i have entered and i will be able to exit comfortably when trade does not go my way.

 

[SavantGarde]

Nifty Futures, BankNifty Futures & Nifty 50 stocks are very Liquid....of course there are others which are Liquid without worrying about getting filled for Buy & Sell....
NF is the Most Liquid Of Them All ...there is a calculation..I knew of but can't remember off hand... where if NF is kept at 2 points lower than current price...there is a very good of 98% that it will get filled...either Buy or Sell...Hope this helps

SG

could anyone please tell me if there is a way to calculate the number of lots one can comfortably trade in any futures/options market,ie with regards to ease of entry and exit,where i can be assured my order will get filled at the price i have entered and i will be able to exit comfortably when trade does not go my way.

 

[murthyavr]

Ms Khushi,

Can you please explain the trading logic behind the Volatility concept?

Specially, with particular reference to how volatility becomes a factor in deciding
the price direction and the mathematical model behind that.

Or, can you please show a pointer to any resource on the web?

And, I personally feel that the strategy which you propose should also be backed
up by a small write-up on how it should be used - in the absence of which,
different people are left with different speculations on the same subject..

Passwords are easy to understand and break .. but strategies are not!

So, what we look forward to have is the latter one, not the former one!!

And - yes, thanks for all your contributions!

 

[khushi00]

Ms Khushi,

Can you please explain the trading logic behind the Volatility concept?

Ok
lets start with an example.....
In india we r supplied with 220V of electricity in household areas
but if u put a voltmeter then u can see that in real time it fluctuate around this mean value of 220.
case I: 200V-240V thats y all our appliances are made in this range.
case II: sometimes it fluctuates more 160V-260V and such times we need stablizer
Now Come to stock market
here also the stock price fluctate around mean price but it varries stock to stock n day to day
Volatility is the measure of this fluctuation of stock prices against their prev. day's close price.
suppose a stock has close price has Rs.100
n by data if we know that it has volatility of suppose 4% one side
means it can go to 104 up n 96 down
case I: it fluctuates less like 99-101 then its not profitable to trade as it can go any direction any time n profit too will be less
Case II: if it rose to 103 then by past data we know that it has so much momentum that it can reach 104-105 or more

so the volatility provides that on a new day if a price fluctuates to certain level then it has potential to reach more beyond...... n there we can find a space to earn
Such like a AFL in amibroker that looks past crossovers to predict future trend similarly volatility looks past fluctuations to predict future price range!

i hope its clear now?

 

[khushi00]

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[khushi00]

Khushi ji
Plz batayiye ki aaj hamare yahan UBL news mein that to aapne bhi UBL mein hi trade kiya
Aap kaise select karte hain stock ko?

not only on friday but this stock was on my screen even on thursday.
it gave rs.100 per share in just 2 days
Rajesh ji, aap news dekhte hain?
just trade in stocks, which are in news.........

 

[murthyavr]

so the volatility provides that on a new day if a price fluctuates to certain level then it has potential to reach more beyond...... n there we can find a space to earn

i hope its clear now?

Thanks Ms Khushi, for the detailed explanation.

1. Then, the volatility varies from scrip to scrip. Do we need to take into acount
the variance rates provided by NSE? (Please see the link proved by SavantGarde)

2. If the answer to the above question is YES, where is the need to fill in the LTP
for the past 10 days or so, when we have a readymade figure provided by NSE?

3. If the answer to the first question is NO, then which variance are you taking?

4. The mean price is nothing but the average of the expected high/low. Right?

5. In case you backtested it already, what about the levels of stoploss?
And the possible targets??

6. What is the relevance of Annualized Volatility in your excel file? (Basically,
we are day trading..)

Sorry, there are too many questions.. but I feel that all of them are relevant!