Tom de mark sequential monitor for nifty50 stocks

[C_R_Kumar]

Refer to post 288.
Anyways, no method is 100% accurate, 70% is good enough, in fact great.

Vivek

Sure, 100% accuracy not possible, that is why SL are there
70% would be very good.

Okay, is context a part of rules? Otherwise wouldn't that make system discretionary/subjective? If the context was discussed as a part of post-failure analysis that would be different. or have I missed out something.

If I may ask, this figure of ~70% winrate, is it a passed around guesstimate or seniors here have backtested and found it right, because that would give more confidence.

Thanks

 

[Smart_trade]

Sure, 100% accuracy not possible, that is why SL are there
70% would be very good.

Okay, is context a part of rules? Otherwise wouldn't that make system discretionary/subjective? If the context was discussed as a part of post-failure analysis that would be different. or have I missed out something.

If I may ask, this figure of ~70% winrate, is it a passed around guesstimate or seniors here have backtested and found it right, because that would give more confidence.

Thanks

Context is not a part of the system.As per the system we are supposed to take all trades,some will fail,some will workout well.But when sequential signals come,they come on number of stocks at the same time or with a difference of few days.So when we have a choice of various stocks,we can pick up the best stocks by seeing the context....but one may ignore the context and take all the signals.

Figure of 70 % win rate also is not mentioned anywhere in system literature.When I learnt this system , I did backtest on previous few years and studied 20-25 signals.As the signals come one signal in few months,I could study only 20-25 signals in Indian markets .One could argue that 25 signals is too small a sample size but I was ok with it.

Trading the method for over a decade in realtime,I discovered very soon that it does not work with pinpoint accuracy on smaller timeframes.Also the figure of 70 percent hit rate is based on my experience of working with it for last so many years but traders can do their own backtest on past data and satisfy themselves about the success .So this 70 % win rate is neither a guesstimate nor I have solid backtest record to prove it,so one can ignore it and depend on his own backtests.Also I have found some ways of trading it with smaller stops which are not part of the system but we tend to add a few things based on our own requirements without changing basic structure of the system.

So in short traders can do their own backtest to gain more confidence on this system.With the backtest,one gets to know many finer points and nuances which will help them.

Smart_trade

 

[vivektrader]

Context is not a part of the system.As per the system we are supposed to take all trades,some will fail,some will workout well.But when sequential signals come,they come on number of stocks at the same time or with a difference of few days.So when we have a choice of various stocks,we can pick up the best stocks by seeing the context....but one may ignore the context and take all the signals.

Figure of 70 % win rate also is not mentioned anywhere in system literature.When I learnt this system , I did backtest on previous few years and studied 20-25 signals.As the signals come one signal in few months,I could study only 20-25 signals in Indian markets .One could argue that 25 signals is too small a sample size but I was ok with it.

Trading the method for over a decade in realtime,I discovered very soon that it does not work with pinpoint accuracy on smaller timeframes.Also the figure of 70 percent hit rate is based on my experience of working with it for last so many years but traders can do their own backtest on past data and satisfy themselves about the success .So this 70 % win rate is neither a guesstimate nor I have solid backtest record to prove it,so one can ignore it and depend on his own backtests.Also I have found some ways of trading it with smaller stops which are not part of the system but we tend to add a few things based on our own requirements without changing basic structure of the system.

So in short traders can do their own backtest to gain more confidence on this system.With the backtest,one gets to know many finer points and nuances which will help them.

Smart_trade

Sir, I wanted to ask about pre-entry qualifiers like close 13>12>11 in a sell CD example, is it mandatory (after close 8<13 high is present).
Also if there are any more qualifiers.
I guess they increase the odds in our favour.

Vivek

 

[Smart_trade]

Sir, I wanted to ask about pre-entry qualifiers like close 13>12>11 in a sell CD example, is it mandatory (after close 8<13 high is present).
Also if there are any more qualifiers.
I guess they increase the odds in our favour.

Vivek

There are a few more qualifiers given by DeMark, but I found close of 13>12>11 gives signals at the high point of the price move.Not mandatory though.Terminal count also is very useful in case of 13 th CD bar only.Also there are 3 ways to enter in the trade,the most safe being enter on a price flip but that takes away 15-20 % of the price move.So I found C<O after CD13 sell countdown as the best ...more sure entry means late entry and wider stops.

Smart_trade

 

[travi]

There are a few more qualifiers given by DeMark, but I found close of 13>12>11 gives signals at the high point of the price move.Not mandatory though.Terminal count also is very useful in case of 13 th CD bar only.Also there are 3 ways to enter in the trade,the most safe being enter on a price flip but that takes away 15-20 % of the price move.So I found C<O after CD13 sell countdown as the best ...more sure entry means late entry and wider stops.
Smart_trade

ST Sir, can you elaborate a bit on slightly less strict requirement for CD on indexes.
I read a post but can't find it. Was it something to do with intersection or perfection?

 

[vivektrader]

ST Sir, can you elaborate a bit on slightly less strict requirement for CD on indexes.
I read a post but can't find it. Was it something to do with intersection or perfection?

It was to do with intersection, Demark is not strict in case of indices, intersection is must in stocks and commodities. ST sir tracks CD in indices on both with and without intersection.

Vivek

 

[slah04]

Hi All

I have been following this thread for quite some time and gaining knowledge on the TD Seq system.

One stupid question is.. How do I start off the setup in the first place.. meaning is it after a price flip or otherwise?

In that case, it may be so that the point of starting may be within a continuing CD which I would not be aware of..

Slah

 

[vivektrader]

Hi All

I have been following this thread for quite some time and gaining knowledge on the TD Seq system.

One stupid question is.. How do I start off the setup in the first place.. meaning is it after a price flip or otherwise?

In that case, it may be so that the point of starting may be within a continuing CD which I would not be aware of..

Slah

A setup is the first thing , which itself starts from a flipbar, so this flipbar is bar 1 of setup. Countdown comes after a completed setup.

Vivek

 

[travi]

It was to do with intersection, Demark is not strict in case of indices, intersection is must in stocks and commodities. ST sir tracks CD in indices on both with and without intersection.
Vivek

ok ji, got it now.
Again, if indices are moving fast in one direction, its better to stick with it and attribute confidence to stocks. I know its not written anywhere, but TR bhai once quoted,
in bull market everything goes up, & in bear its down

 

[C_R_Kumar]

Context is not a part of the system.As per the system we are supposed to take all trades,some will fail,some will workout well.But when sequential signals come,they come on number of stocks at the same time or with a difference of few days.So when we have a choice of various stocks,we can pick up the best stocks by seeing the context....but one may ignore the context and take all the signals.

Figure of 70 % win rate also is not mentioned anywhere in system literature.When I learnt this system , I did backtest on previous few years and studied 20-25 signals.As the signals come one signal in few months,I could study only 20-25 signals in Indian markets .One could argue that 25 signals is too small a sample size but I was ok with it.

Trading the method for over a decade in realtime,I discovered very soon that it does not work with pinpoint accuracy on smaller timeframes.Also the figure of 70 percent hit rate is based on my experience of working with it for last so many years but traders can do their own backtest on past data and satisfy themselves about the success .So this 70 % win rate is neither a guesstimate nor I have solid backtest record to prove it,so one can ignore it and depend on his own backtests.Also I have found some ways of trading it with smaller stops which are not part of the system but we tend to add a few things based on our own requirements without changing basic structure of the system.

So in short traders can do their own backtest to gain more confidence on this system.With the backtest,one gets to know many finer points and nuances which will help them.

Smart_trade

A very nice post covering all the issues, many thanks :thumb:

The expected winrate of 70% is based on practical experience rather than systematical/theoretical backtesting hence carries more weight, at least IMO.
As you mentioned short term winrate is a bit less, could it be around 60-65% as per your experience.

ST Sir, if one can ask is your decade long experience good with Demark indicators vis-a-vis others.
And Perl lists many TD-modified-indicators, do you also use them.
How would you rate them compared to their general forms.

I am actually fascinated by purely rules driven approach of this system, hope you will not take offence to my queries because I have lot more about the rules

Thanks