The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then
- Thread starter pkjha30
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Hi
These two slides of Power point presentation I found interesting. Members would like to see. The full PPT presentation was in some other context. Two more slides which I could not inclue was on performance of various markets.
Thos who would like to see here is the link
www.flaggmgmt.com/bc/presentations06/ Tabb_Larry_Alex_Key_Note.ppt
Views???
Pankaj
These two slides of Power point presentation I found interesting. Members would like to see. The full PPT presentation was in some other context. Two more slides which I could not inclue was on performance of various markets.
Thos who would like to see here is the link
www.flaggmgmt.com/bc/presentations06/ Tabb_Larry_Alex_Key_Note.ppt
Views???
Pankaj
Last edited:
Hi
I just visited SEBI link as given by nkp. The cosolidated data is presented there in respect of FIIs. Here is the current scenario for FII trends
Reporting Date--- Debt/Equity--- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores) ---Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
01-JUN-2006--- Equity 1730.90--- 2563.20--- (832.30) ---(185.20)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total for June--- Equity 1730.90--- 2563.20--- (832.30)---- (185.20)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total for 2006--- Equity 217643.30--- 207353.60--- 10289.80--- 2309.80
Debt--- 2306.40--- 2682.50 ---(376.10) ---(81.00)
Grand Total till June 01, 2006 ---Equity--- 1071460.30 ---885728.30--- 185732.00--- 43410.20
Debt--- 34210.80 ---32214.70 ---1996.10 ---364.20
Hope this makes some sense. I think Hedge funds are indulging in extreme speculative activities and by shooting a target of 7500 or so they are adding fuel to the fire.
Pankaj
I just visited SEBI link as given by nkp. The cosolidated data is presented there in respect of FIIs. Here is the current scenario for FII trends
Reporting Date--- Debt/Equity--- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores) ---Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
01-JUN-2006--- Equity 1730.90--- 2563.20--- (832.30) ---(185.20)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total for June--- Equity 1730.90--- 2563.20--- (832.30)---- (185.20)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total for 2006--- Equity 217643.30--- 207353.60--- 10289.80--- 2309.80
Debt--- 2306.40--- 2682.50 ---(376.10) ---(81.00)
Grand Total till June 01, 2006 ---Equity--- 1071460.30 ---885728.30--- 185732.00--- 43410.20
Debt--- 34210.80 ---32214.70 ---1996.10 ---364.20
Hope this makes some sense. I think Hedge funds are indulging in extreme speculative activities and by shooting a target of 7500 or so they are adding fuel to the fire.
Pankaj
who are these FII wallas? this question always bugged me. yes one would drop names of fidelity, actis(CDC) and other guys. but is that so simple?
India is a country where a parallel economy runs side by side which is more or less equal that of the 'white economy'.
we do hear from time to time, how our politician & business persons have their black money safely deposited in the Swiss Banks. and these are the times when these money comes into the country in the disguise of FII.
a year or two ago there was small news snippet - majority stake in Sterlite Industries has been taken over by an FII. Twinstar Holdings. but who the hell this Twinstar Holdings is? later it came into light that the said co. is nothing but another holding co. of the agarwals, the Indian promoter of Sterlite. is this a isolated incident? well............................
India is a country where a parallel economy runs side by side which is more or less equal that of the 'white economy'.
we do hear from time to time, how our politician & business persons have their black money safely deposited in the Swiss Banks. and these are the times when these money comes into the country in the disguise of FII.
a year or two ago there was small news snippet - majority stake in Sterlite Industries has been taken over by an FII. Twinstar Holdings. but who the hell this Twinstar Holdings is? later it came into light that the said co. is nothing but another holding co. of the agarwals, the Indian promoter of Sterlite. is this a isolated incident? well............................
Hi guys,
Amidst all this FII and Hedge fund bashing let us not forget that Yes we need their money. If we did not why the bending over backwards act by our political leaders to woo them to invest here.
The one thing that no one wants to speak about is that whatever their motives, their prime motive is to safeguard their clients interest and make money for them. I wish our mutual funds would take a leaf out of their book, and manage our money as aggressively.
Regds
Amidst all this FII and Hedge fund bashing let us not forget that Yes we need their money. If we did not why the bending over backwards act by our political leaders to woo them to invest here.
The one thing that no one wants to speak about is that whatever their motives, their prime motive is to safeguard their clients interest and make money for them. I wish our mutual funds would take a leaf out of their book, and manage our money as aggressively.
Regds
pkjha30 said:
Hi
Hope this makes some sense. I think Hedge funds are indulging in extreme speculative activities and by shooting a target of 7500 or so they are adding fuel to the fire.
Pankaj
Hope this makes some sense. I think Hedge funds are indulging in extreme speculative activities and by shooting a target of 7500 or so they are adding fuel to the fire.
Pankaj
Srini
Hi vince
What you say is right. I have also pointed both the aspects that we need their money and that they also need to answer to their clients. They are here not for charity.One assumption that is always made when inviting aam admi to the market is that it is also a safe option to get good returns, that there is no manipulation and market will grow because economy grows. Risk is there but so is the risk in driving a car and so on so forth. They get trapped and loose their money since they don't know market mechanism. You will find this story played time and again.
The question is that if and whether market reflects economic growth or prices are jacked up like three times up two times down and then last run and slam dunk. Both bears and bulls are fodder for such mechinations. Retail investors are caught like mite in the wheat.
I do not find this mechination in which almost all analysts participates , perticularly appealing or ethical. Markets should be reflecting the growth and valuations should grow in tune with developmet. Companies may fall, economies may fail. Market should reflect it. But it is too early to pronounce any judgement on all this.
Their out flow is not all that big as it is madeout to be. Swiftness , yes it is. But aren't all these anticipated. Then why we were caught off guard. GFH factor of satya. Leveraged money. not following the basic rules of investing stop losses limit profit, exit as per the period of holding.
So first we have to look into ourselves. This forum is a means to do that.
By this thread I didn't want to focus on wrongdoings of FII if any, but to see when trend reversal takes place and if it coincides with FII. Analysing their role may be only a by-product.
I still believe that long term story is fine. You can still safely invest and wait for long term horizon. Traders ... that is a different story. Follow your stretagy if you want to trade. FII or no FII they have always been there making money or losses but I have not seen them stop trading. Idea is to find your own winning strategy and stick to it. Nobody can make money all the time from all the trades( same goes for investment).
Pankaj:
What you say is right. I have also pointed both the aspects that we need their money and that they also need to answer to their clients. They are here not for charity.One assumption that is always made when inviting aam admi to the market is that it is also a safe option to get good returns, that there is no manipulation and market will grow because economy grows. Risk is there but so is the risk in driving a car and so on so forth. They get trapped and loose their money since they don't know market mechanism. You will find this story played time and again.
The question is that if and whether market reflects economic growth or prices are jacked up like three times up two times down and then last run and slam dunk. Both bears and bulls are fodder for such mechinations. Retail investors are caught like mite in the wheat.
I do not find this mechination in which almost all analysts participates , perticularly appealing or ethical. Markets should be reflecting the growth and valuations should grow in tune with developmet. Companies may fall, economies may fail. Market should reflect it. But it is too early to pronounce any judgement on all this.
Their out flow is not all that big as it is madeout to be. Swiftness , yes it is. But aren't all these anticipated. Then why we were caught off guard. GFH factor of satya. Leveraged money. not following the basic rules of investing stop losses limit profit, exit as per the period of holding.
So first we have to look into ourselves. This forum is a means to do that.
By this thread I didn't want to focus on wrongdoings of FII if any, but to see when trend reversal takes place and if it coincides with FII. Analysing their role may be only a by-product.
I still believe that long term story is fine. You can still safely invest and wait for long term horizon. Traders ... that is a different story. Follow your stretagy if you want to trade. FII or no FII they have always been there making money or losses but I have not seen them stop trading. Idea is to find your own winning strategy and stick to it. Nobody can make money all the time from all the trades( same goes for investment).
Pankaj:
Do you suggest putting Stop Losses for Long Term Holdings also?
Hope in the Long Term India will lead the world market along with China but not US or Japan which are going to be worst performaning markets untill 2009 as of now (estimates).
In the coming days people are predicting more weakness in the doller, and hight inflation as well as higher interest rates in US. And Europe will follow the US by increasing the interest rates to contain the follout of the doller weakness. I think it is an allround effect on the world markets.
Srini
Hope in the Long Term India will lead the world market along with China but not US or Japan which are going to be worst performaning markets untill 2009 as of now (estimates).
In the coming days people are predicting more weakness in the doller, and hight inflation as well as higher interest rates in US. And Europe will follow the US by increasing the interest rates to contain the follout of the doller weakness. I think it is an allround effect on the world markets.
Srini
Hi srini
Interesting question. I suppose all transactions will have stop losses without exception. Having said that Let us see why and how?
Short term traders in order to protect themselves from huge losses keep stop loss as determined by technical factors such as support and resistence and the trendline, your entry price(which is also determined by technical factors)
If they get into profit they try to protect the profit by keeping stoploss following the CMP. So stop loss becomes a dynamic factor and you need to monitor your trade.
Same thing will be applicable in case of Long term investment. Support and resistence will also be determined by the trendlines and technical factors. The only difference will be stoplosses will be wide and not as tight as short term trading. In day trading its a question of few paise and in long term it may be few hundreds say infosys.If cmp is around three thousand you would keep some three hundred or four hundred rupees down the line as stop loss price.Price may fluctuate but it ma not hit the stop loss. In some situation if that is triggered you simply get out. Then if you are still convinced about the fundamentals and whatever factors you might decide to enter again.
If long term trendline is broken your stop losses should protect you to some extent.
Now if you are in profit would you not like to protect your profit? When prices go up you revise again your stoplosses,keeping in mind volatality and support and resistence, volumes etc. This will protect your portfolio from getting erroded. If stop loss gets triggered on profit get out. You can always get in at lower price and you will have more of the same stocks. Your average cost will also be less.. This is also called averaging. But getting into same stock is advisable only if downturn is due to some factors not related to fundamentals. But it is better not to anticipate bottom and only to enter again when price goes decisively in uptrend.
Further if your target price is reached always book profit. It keeps ypu happy and reduces the cost of holding for remaining shares. If uptrend continues you can always invest again.
The stop losses are also related to your comfort zone ie. how much you can tolerate loss if you are convinced about your investment and time frame.
A person who had infy in 1993 would have say 1024 shares. But if he kept booking profit and reentering it he would have had many more.
Further, long term investing is not about you individual stocks but your portfolio and how much it is actually returning on capital employed. Stop losses tend to maximise return even when some investments fail.
I am not a technical person but hope I am clear.
Regards
Pankaj
Interesting question. I suppose all transactions will have stop losses without exception. Having said that Let us see why and how?
Short term traders in order to protect themselves from huge losses keep stop loss as determined by technical factors such as support and resistence and the trendline, your entry price(which is also determined by technical factors)
If they get into profit they try to protect the profit by keeping stoploss following the CMP. So stop loss becomes a dynamic factor and you need to monitor your trade.
Same thing will be applicable in case of Long term investment. Support and resistence will also be determined by the trendlines and technical factors. The only difference will be stoplosses will be wide and not as tight as short term trading. In day trading its a question of few paise and in long term it may be few hundreds say infosys.If cmp is around three thousand you would keep some three hundred or four hundred rupees down the line as stop loss price.Price may fluctuate but it ma not hit the stop loss. In some situation if that is triggered you simply get out. Then if you are still convinced about the fundamentals and whatever factors you might decide to enter again.
If long term trendline is broken your stop losses should protect you to some extent.
Now if you are in profit would you not like to protect your profit? When prices go up you revise again your stoplosses,keeping in mind volatality and support and resistence, volumes etc. This will protect your portfolio from getting erroded. If stop loss gets triggered on profit get out. You can always get in at lower price and you will have more of the same stocks. Your average cost will also be less.. This is also called averaging. But getting into same stock is advisable only if downturn is due to some factors not related to fundamentals. But it is better not to anticipate bottom and only to enter again when price goes decisively in uptrend.
Further if your target price is reached always book profit. It keeps ypu happy and reduces the cost of holding for remaining shares. If uptrend continues you can always invest again.
The stop losses are also related to your comfort zone ie. how much you can tolerate loss if you are convinced about your investment and time frame.
A person who had infy in 1993 would have say 1024 shares. But if he kept booking profit and reentering it he would have had many more.
Further, long term investing is not about you individual stocks but your portfolio and how much it is actually returning on capital employed. Stop losses tend to maximise return even when some investments fail.
I am not a technical person but hope I am clear.
Regards
Pankaj
Hi
Today I am giving FII data as indicated by SEBI which includes both NSE and BSE equity and debt.
Reporting Date-- Debt/Equity-- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)-- Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
02-JUN-2006--- Equity-- 2317.80-- 2600.00-- (282.20)-- (62.80)
---Debt ---39.40--- 20.00 ---19.40--- 4.30
The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 02-JUN-2006 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day.
From above data it is clear that now FIIs have acclerated their purchases but so their selling has also increased. Net sales increased to R. 282.20 crs.
a jump of about Rs. 97 crs.
Now just a thought. If FIIs know that valuations are right would they let us know in advance? This would spoil their party as too many people will be with profit when it all ends again. Just as Nomura didnot talk about valuation till it reached 12600 they would not let us know if valuations are right. Their Buy figures are intriguing. Why they are buying if valuations are not right? If market were to tank further whatever stocks are being brought will end up much lower and they would incur loss.
Now another question if they sell within one year are they going to pay LTCG tax? Mauritius root is fine. No tax. But what about rest. Nomura figures don't stand anywhere as per the Powerpoint presentation. UBS made more profit then may heavy weights. But interms of investments there are other funds that are big boss. Are they also playing Japanese roullette?
I think they are rotating their sectors and taking some profit out after jacking it up by 20% more than the fair valuation. In any case when they sell it would always lower the market. Such is the extent of their meagre selling by normal standard. 3.5 % should not ring alarm bells. It has done mostly for those who invested in the last leg of the rally.
Long term portfolio would be in good health even now and it will be an opportunity for those willing to invest. Their cost will be less.
But , should retail investors invest now? I think not.
Why? because undercurrents are there now and on analysis it seems fine but
global cues are still not there. Just before FIIs would become net buyer, global cues would come for certain.
So I think wait and watch on the sidelines of this drama.
Regards
Pankaj
Today I am giving FII data as indicated by SEBI which includes both NSE and BSE equity and debt.
Reporting Date-- Debt/Equity-- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)-- Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
02-JUN-2006--- Equity-- 2317.80-- 2600.00-- (282.20)-- (62.80)
---Debt ---39.40--- 20.00 ---19.40--- 4.30
The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 02-JUN-2006 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day.
From above data it is clear that now FIIs have acclerated their purchases but so their selling has also increased. Net sales increased to R. 282.20 crs.
a jump of about Rs. 97 crs.
Now just a thought. If FIIs know that valuations are right would they let us know in advance? This would spoil their party as too many people will be with profit when it all ends again. Just as Nomura didnot talk about valuation till it reached 12600 they would not let us know if valuations are right. Their Buy figures are intriguing. Why they are buying if valuations are not right? If market were to tank further whatever stocks are being brought will end up much lower and they would incur loss.
Now another question if they sell within one year are they going to pay LTCG tax? Mauritius root is fine. No tax. But what about rest. Nomura figures don't stand anywhere as per the Powerpoint presentation. UBS made more profit then may heavy weights. But interms of investments there are other funds that are big boss. Are they also playing Japanese roullette?
I think they are rotating their sectors and taking some profit out after jacking it up by 20% more than the fair valuation. In any case when they sell it would always lower the market. Such is the extent of their meagre selling by normal standard. 3.5 % should not ring alarm bells. It has done mostly for those who invested in the last leg of the rally.
Long term portfolio would be in good health even now and it will be an opportunity for those willing to invest. Their cost will be less.
But , should retail investors invest now? I think not.
Why? because undercurrents are there now and on analysis it seems fine but
global cues are still not there. Just before FIIs would become net buyer, global cues would come for certain.
So I think wait and watch on the sidelines of this drama.
Regards
Pankaj
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