The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

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AMITBE

Well-Known Member
#61
Hi Pankaj...what you've been doing at the forum lately is invaluable, and your posts are at par with any other high quality stuff one finds at this forum from its esteemed members.
Thanks for the same and keep it up.

This post of mine is on a different note to the current debate, but not quite.

Here and there on a couple of occasions Ive seen youve been feeling that I may have been taking a rather gloomy and negative tilt at Nifty Fifty.
Would that be right?
If so, then all I can say, as I suggested this morning at my thread, Im merely attempting to be a caricaturist in coming to grips with the emotions each morning. I dont spend more than a few quick minutes writing out the morning post.
Ive been with this style of writing for some time now, and it began towards the end of the rally, and its a style that suits the times. I see quite a few 'expressions' from my posts in circulation at the forum, and that underlines the aptness of my form of writing. I may not be able to continue too long in this, but thats another matter.

These are terrible times, and the aam aadmi is being clobbered with all his hands and feet tied. He has no defense, and he has nowhere to run.
Sure, some may say who asked the commoners to meander into a place where they dont belong, but hey, they are wrong.
The market belongs to everyone. It has a magic and a charm that touches everyone alike.
So, more than the pain, one feels the pinch of outright helplessness of those who have been butchered.

Sure, some will go rah rah rah rahbut nobody bothered and everyone was giddy when the party was on, so why all the gloom now.
**** that.
Lets be honest. Pleasure is pleasure, but pain is hell. Thats just human nature.
And the anger comes from the fact that this is an unfair contest and the dice is terribly loaded in favour of an alien force, in these times of an increasingly intimate global 'intercourse' whish is being used here as a euphemism for outright buggery .

So yes, anguish and anger, whatever it is, is reflected in my sketches.
As time passes, and these times slip into history, someone will will come along and have a relook at the way things are being run in our markets. Perhaps then some of this pain would have been well felt.

Ahone more thingto let you into my secretIve never shorted the Nifty in any uncouth and opportunistic manner.
At a personal level, she has an important place in my life and I relate to it as I would to any beingmeaning with respect and gratitude: I make a living off her.
Yes, there are times when I will hedge my holdings using the Nifty and my close tracking of it.
But Ill never hold her down on naked puts or anything like it, and worse, having done it, walk around with a cocky swagger.
I take a lot of pride in my trading skills to be doing that.

This is my stance, just as others have theirs.
Perhaps it depends on where we come from.
 
#63
pkjha30 said:
If nothing is wrong in FIIs investment and pulling out money(why they are not pulling out 20%..a puzzle) then it is still not a bear market. They do have power to influence the market and this could be one indicator signalling turnaround in the sentiments and ultimately. Let me be over optimistic to say that next rise of nifty will surprise by year end.

But ordinary investors don't hold the key as of now. So wait and watch.

Hope this is okay with you

Regards
Pankaj:)
Today I am having a chat with one of the dealer here. He gives some examples of Europian & UK punishments given out to the Larget Financial institutions like Citi Bank etc for their Short selling. I think in our country also this strong mesuares should be implemented to correct these bad habit of operatiors.

He explains these socalled FII's came to emarging markets due to their low valuations & strong Fundamentals. When they enter with such expectation into an emarging markets, His openion is that, these Hedge Funds & FII's should not be allowed to go short on F&O to cover thier risk. By doing this they are driving the funds out the poor emarging countries rather than giving it to them in the long run.

One more thing he explains in the world there are lot of countries which failed misrably by allowing the 1) Full convertability (I think our Chidambaram is planning this as per the notes he circulated) & 2) FII / Hedge Fund investments into their econamies.

Srini
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#64
Hi Amit

Well a surprise for me:D . Thanks a lot for gracing my thread. If I don't reply for a few minutes more I will get more hits. But I can't resist the temptation. :D


First of all let me clarify few things.
I always followed your views from the beginning. Infact I would visit and revisit the threads from first to last.
I have found consistency and application of an atute mind. If you felt that I implied negative bias in nifty then I am sure wanting in my expressions. I have to apologise for that.:eek:

Your nifty levels and Good steals are still a steal. I requested you to continue about nifty-fifty as I felt that nifty levels downward also need similar explaining as its upward move. This indicates that I hold the thread neutral and a factual explatanation and interpretation of movements. So no question of negative and positive tilt.

As regards good steals , there is time for everything. There will be time when your contribution will be again required in that thread.

Members have right to agree or disagree. But I see more members agreeing with your views and hence you are quoted. This clearly show that your posts have merit.
Now , I have very limited position on puts etc. as you might have guessed that I am not a man from the market. I am that aam admi who gets clobbered left and right and trying to make sense of it. Your pain is mine and much more so in that I see my belief in Indian economy ,as it stands now ,open to question. So this downward trend needed to be explained by many factors. FII is but one factor. And depth of our market magnifies it. So the answer lies in more retail participation and better regulation of market with swift punishment to manipulators.That is the only way to restore confidence. Indian Companies have to be more transparent , more dividend paying more active in solving investor grievances. No DSQ, BPL or Videocon type scam. Such culprits need to be put behind bars for life. Then only wider participation can be ensured. That is the only answer.

But till such time it happens FII activity seemed to me a good beginning point to understand the market.

Well Amit given your nature as reflected in the post it is quite natural that you would not short. Hedging is fine , even shorting is fine. Going long is also fine. Extreme is bad. Individuals do not have that power which would cause distress due to their action in market on a scale seen in great crashes. We have to be beware of mob mentality. Sometimes it is capable of killing a perfectly golden goose inadvertantly.

In that, I fully share you concerns.You would have read many a time in newspaper that despite best efforts many were killed due to stampede or charred to death due to fire by electrical spark. All this happens due to lack os implimentation of existing regulations or due to improper supervision. Market is also akin to that.Like everything else its energy also needs to be harnessed properly.

In 2004 may after the crash I took my first step towards market believing that India is growing. Fear was prevailing but I was unrepentent. I am even now. All my holdings are for looong teeeerm. I look at my portfolio and see that it is being buffetted by strong winds but like straw it is afloat as many of them are beyond scope of bear operators . I look at the overall picture of my portfolio. So I am not unduly worried. Further it is not leveraged so no problem. Lastly I don't depend on it, so no pressure to sell it.except for one or two most of them are of antique origin. If something goes drastically wrong even FIIs investment will be affected. That will be a remote possibility. That is the reason I am tracking them.

I have one thing to request to you . If you have faith in your conviction please keep posting . It really gives pleasure to many and solace to newcomers , who may be searching for answer in desperation. We need to give them timely and just advice. We need not always tell them that Market will go up. Such is the nature of the market that it can go down as well. But advice have the tendency to focus the thought process. Many will be saved by that. For this reason only and not to debate with anybody that I increased my postings. More ever a TEAM is more effective than an individual.

With heartfelt regard for you

Pankaj:)
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#65
srinivasud said:
Today I am having a chat with one of the dealer here. He gives some examples of Europian & UK punishments given out to the Larget Financial institutions like Citi Bank etc for their Short selling. I think in our country also this strong mesuares should be implemented to correct these bad habit of operatiors.

He explains these socalled FII's came to emarging markets due to their low valuations & strong Fundamentals. When they enter with such expectation into an emarging markets, His openion is that, these Hedge Funds & FII's should not be allowed to go short on F&O to cover thier risk. By doing this they are driving the funds out the poor emarging countries rather than giving it to them in the long run.

One more thing he explains in the world there are lot of countries which failed misrably by allowing the 1) Full convertability (I think our Chidambaram is planning this as per the notes he circulated) & 2) FII / Hedge Fund investments into their econamies.

Srini

Hi srinivas

I agree with you on F&O aspect. Punishments are few and far between. But time for that is yet to come. Let market go down to 6300 as Baron predicted and see what happens.Stock market does not operate in isolation. Anything which happens extraordinary will have ramifications for the Indian Economy.It won't be able to come out of depression for next 30 years and Party in power will be thrown into Arabian sea with many behind bars and may be finacial emergency imposed. Remember we had this situation in 85-91.

Bolivian example should not be far off from the minds of FIIs and FDIs. Brazil and Argentina should have taught some lesson to our planners.The country will be thrown back some 30 years behind. I don't think FIIs are in any hurry to finish off emerging markets including India.

regards
pankaj:)
 
C

Czar

Guest
#66
Possible, but they gave chance for people to exit...If we cannot book then they surely did...Out of XX no. of FII they too are in the dog race...so before some others started the trigger they did & then others joined the race to book, but India is definately a hope & they live on hope of a better future so we hang on... I read this joke somewhere:

Indian growth story is Intact. The FII's took away the growth & left the Indians with the story...
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#67
Czar said:
Possible, but they gave chance for people to exit...If we cannot book then they surely did...Out of XX no. of FII they too are in the dog race...so before some others started the trigger they did & then others joined the race to book, but India is definately a hope & they live on hope of a better future so we hang on... I read this joke somewhere:

Indian growth story is Intact. The FII's took away the growth & left the Indians with the story...
Yeah, three to four percent of them . What do you say???
 
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