Hi
Today's FII figure from NSE
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date-- Buy Value--- Sell Value--
Net Value
05-Jul-2006----- 1991.58-------- 1615.12---------
376.46
SEBI figure
Reporting Date ---Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)---
Net Investment (Rs Crores)--- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
05-JUL-2006------ 1122.70--- 908.00----
214.70---- 47.30
Total for July ---4319.50 ---3743.70----
575.80
FII derivative trades from SEBI report
-----------BUY--------SELL-------OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
INDEX FUTURES ---424.09 ----437.48 ------7088.15
INDEX OPTIONS----164.31----55.61 -----1639.19
STOCK FUTURES----337.16----138.86---7142.40
STOCK OPTIONS---- --5.15-- --0.20-- --41.33
Mutual Funds are net seller for July so far
---------------------Buy--------sell---------
net
July 2006 (upto 3rd)---138.56 --199.16 ---
(-60.60)
For these three days they are minor participant in the market.
Market ADR
Advances-- 535
Declines--- 357
Unchanged-- 35
So market bredth was positive
TRADE STATISTICS FOR 05-Jul-2006
No. of trades 2,376,978
Traded Qty. (lakh shares) 2,117.13
Traded Value (Rs. crores)
6,059.92
So volume was not great but it was not meagre either.
S&P CNX NIFTY--- Present close----3197.10
------ Previous close---3138.65
------percent change-----1.86%
Nifty closed in positive territory and showed some strength.
But , in this uptren , neither FII nor MF were participants. So who are the participants buying Nifty in CM segment.
1. Bloodied retail investors who wants to cover his losses
2. Promoters who wants to raise stakes in companies controlled by them
3.Traders and arbitrageurs who can't stay away from the market for long
This is my guess. I have seen in the details of category wise turn over there is one section "Others" which has major trade done .this is left unexplained by SEBI or NSE.
On Global front, Asia Pacific was a mixed result. China and India closing higher but others were either subdued or in red.
Europe was red . No oasis of green to be seen.
Presently Nasdaq and Dow has started in red and going lower.
Analysts are active in global media stating that Fed rate at 6% will result in drop of 29%. History supports such views according to them.This will result in slow down and in poor performance so bad for the stock.
If that is so then the present confidence of market participants other than FII and MF appears to be hollow. The Sensex and nifty is largely dependent on FIIs. There could be no two opinion about this. The market growth is driven by liquidity more than the growth. If that is the correct assesment then market will take another bout of dive to test the lows formed recently.Unfortunately, our FII friends are not leaving India so soon. They remain invested as India with China would provide better returns then any other asset class. The meet in monaco of world investors(read FIIs and hedge funds) would discuss and debate this issue.
Till this issue is sorted out let us not get into any hope that sensex will resume its flight. It will meander and meander till another month and then in August, when Fed provides hint of enough is enough , if at all and pauses.A doubtfull proposition.
FII assesment of EMs particularly India , will decide the fate of Indian Market whether we like it or not.
Pankaj