The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then
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Hi
Thanks Amit for the info.
Here's the SEBI data
Reporting Date--- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)--- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
27-JUN-2006--- 2161.30--- 2188.10--- (26.80) ---(5.90)
Total for June --- 34215.70-- 33305.80-- 909.80--- 200.50
Total for 2006--- 250128.10--- 238096.10--- 12032.00--- 2695.30
And NSE Data
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date-- Buy Value-- Sell Value-- Net Value
27-Jun-2006-- 1666.83-- 1727.17--( -60.34)
MF Activity
Date---Buy---Sale---Net
26.06.06---185.20 ---312.74 ---(-127.54)
Total for June2006 ---5955.99 ---8337.45 ---(-2381.46)
Total (April - June '06) --37053.89 ---28421.43 --8632.46
First the bad news. FIIs have been slowly selling. Though they are still in net purchase by 909 crs(SEBI) the amount has reduced. It has reflected the volatality of the market.
The good news is that they are net purchaser for the first half of the year by 12000 crs. They have to sell that much to get into red.As earlier noted the value of their holding will decline by much more percentage if they resort to massive selling like that of May 2006.
The way I see is that there is mood of anticipation and apprehension. In the run up to dreaded wednesday and thrusday , market analysis has been full of foreboding and ominous signs.
Asia -Pacific was largely green(except HongKong) but the margin of upside is unconvincing.Europe was partly in green by unconvincing margin and partly in red. FTSE was in red by 0.01%.
Dow and Nasdaq is currently showing listless movement and slowly sliiping into red.
This simply indicates that market is in wait and watch mood. Rocking the boat before time is not anybody's idea now.
Nifty closed little highe but one could understand the underlying weakness by the A/D Ratio
Advances--- 241--- Declines--- 675 Unchanged --- 20
For every advancing stock there were 2.8 stocks tha declined.Nifty PE is 17.36.Here advance decline ratio was slightly better
Advances 34
Declines 16
indicating a general bias towards Largecap stocks
Tomorrow market will remain listless, rangebound and volatile.Wait and watch. Let this event pass over and then try to gauge the direction.
While thinking one thing crossed my mind. Why it so happens that one stock is not a good buy when it comes down to say 90 but it becomes a good buy when it is 120 and going up. Fundamentally, what changes are there in both the situation. One thing is clear: Sentiments, secondly , any adverse outlook.
Ignore the sentiments. Go for Outlook.
Pankaj
Thanks Amit for the info.
Here's the SEBI data
Reporting Date--- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)--- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
27-JUN-2006--- 2161.30--- 2188.10--- (26.80) ---(5.90)
Total for June --- 34215.70-- 33305.80-- 909.80--- 200.50
Total for 2006--- 250128.10--- 238096.10--- 12032.00--- 2695.30
And NSE Data
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date-- Buy Value-- Sell Value-- Net Value
27-Jun-2006-- 1666.83-- 1727.17--( -60.34)
MF Activity
Date---Buy---Sale---Net
26.06.06---185.20 ---312.74 ---(-127.54)
Total for June2006 ---5955.99 ---8337.45 ---(-2381.46)
Total (April - June '06) --37053.89 ---28421.43 --8632.46
First the bad news. FIIs have been slowly selling. Though they are still in net purchase by 909 crs(SEBI) the amount has reduced. It has reflected the volatality of the market.
The good news is that they are net purchaser for the first half of the year by 12000 crs. They have to sell that much to get into red.As earlier noted the value of their holding will decline by much more percentage if they resort to massive selling like that of May 2006.
The way I see is that there is mood of anticipation and apprehension. In the run up to dreaded wednesday and thrusday , market analysis has been full of foreboding and ominous signs.
Asia -Pacific was largely green(except HongKong) but the margin of upside is unconvincing.Europe was partly in green by unconvincing margin and partly in red. FTSE was in red by 0.01%.
Dow and Nasdaq is currently showing listless movement and slowly sliiping into red.
This simply indicates that market is in wait and watch mood. Rocking the boat before time is not anybody's idea now.
Nifty closed little highe but one could understand the underlying weakness by the A/D Ratio
Advances--- 241--- Declines--- 675 Unchanged --- 20
For every advancing stock there were 2.8 stocks tha declined.Nifty PE is 17.36.Here advance decline ratio was slightly better
Advances 34
Declines 16
indicating a general bias towards Largecap stocks
Tomorrow market will remain listless, rangebound and volatile.Wait and watch. Let this event pass over and then try to gauge the direction.
While thinking one thing crossed my mind. Why it so happens that one stock is not a good buy when it comes down to say 90 but it becomes a good buy when it is 120 and going up. Fundamentally, what changes are there in both the situation. One thing is clear: Sentiments, secondly , any adverse outlook.
Ignore the sentiments. Go for Outlook.
Pankaj
Hi
Since members have attached so much importance to Nifty PE, and I believe rightly so, I am attaching a chart and one file for Nifty PE since Jan 2004 till date.
I will give my interpretation like this.
The lowest pE was on 25the june 2004. at 11.96. Thereafter PE has been consolidating in a range for one and half year. Next lowes pe was recorded on 31st October 2005 which was 14.23. Now the lowest PE recorded was on 14 th june 2006 at 14.92.
At each time when there was significant price action on the downward side PE also took downward plunge. but in a higher loop. This is the third loop counting from the Low in 2004. Low of each loop is higher than the previous one. Thereafter it consolidates.
A PE of 14.92 and consolidating is not excessive if we think of the growth rate at 8.4 % per annum as against 3% of developped countries. I suppose PE shows where Money is. There may be risk but then you can't get more reward than the risk.
Feel free to post your views.
pankaj
Since members have attached so much importance to Nifty PE, and I believe rightly so, I am attaching a chart and one file for Nifty PE since Jan 2004 till date.
I will give my interpretation like this.
The lowest pE was on 25the june 2004. at 11.96. Thereafter PE has been consolidating in a range for one and half year. Next lowes pe was recorded on 31st October 2005 which was 14.23. Now the lowest PE recorded was on 14 th june 2006 at 14.92.
At each time when there was significant price action on the downward side PE also took downward plunge. but in a higher loop. This is the third loop counting from the Low in 2004. Low of each loop is higher than the previous one. Thereafter it consolidates.
A PE of 14.92 and consolidating is not excessive if we think of the growth rate at 8.4 % per annum as against 3% of developped countries. I suppose PE shows where Money is. There may be risk but then you can't get more reward than the risk.
Feel free to post your views.
pankaj
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pkjha30 said:
They have to sell that much to get into red.As earlier noted the value of their holding will decline by much more percentage if they resort to massive selling like that of May 2006.
Pankaj
Pankaj
Dear munchi
Tell me who is going to buy when they sell. We can't because we don't have absorbing capactiy. So what happens If they dump without corresponding buying.Stocks will hit lower circuits, meaning no buyers. So they are left holding a paper nobody is willing to buy. Further when they sell, do you think that majority of Domestic players including retail investors will be left behind.
Most likely our MFs would have been exhausted now or would exhaust in double quick time with run on them for redemption.
Finally , When the nimble few have left for other pasteurs , others including FIIs will be left holding a paper not even worth toilet paper. I do not think such a scenario works in their favour.
I don't think they are going to hold any share forever. They will be constantly looking to better avenues and rotate as their assessment of a particular stock changes. Sometimes they would exit in profit and others takeover from them. ( This happened in case of Airtel last year when one FII exited at 240 and another one got ito it, both ending in profit).They just don't dump. If it is a bear market we will see them exiting by the next year end while trying to protect their net worth on Indian Portfolio. So watch their actiona dn their words more closely.Further, if you see, I have expressed opinion on net sale and purchases. Individual buy and sale figures are much higher. In these figures story of individual stocks are hidden --what they are selling and what they are buying without impacting cost. This is a well known fact. Further they may resort to negotiated sale so that prices are not affected. Even exchanges now allow it as a seperate segment.
The problem comes when they sell more than they buy.
Pankaj
Tell me who is going to buy when they sell. We can't because we don't have absorbing capactiy. So what happens If they dump without corresponding buying.Stocks will hit lower circuits, meaning no buyers. So they are left holding a paper nobody is willing to buy. Further when they sell, do you think that majority of Domestic players including retail investors will be left behind.
Most likely our MFs would have been exhausted now or would exhaust in double quick time with run on them for redemption.
Finally , When the nimble few have left for other pasteurs , others including FIIs will be left holding a paper not even worth toilet paper. I do not think such a scenario works in their favour.
I don't think they are going to hold any share forever. They will be constantly looking to better avenues and rotate as their assessment of a particular stock changes. Sometimes they would exit in profit and others takeover from them. ( This happened in case of Airtel last year when one FII exited at 240 and another one got ito it, both ending in profit).They just don't dump. If it is a bear market we will see them exiting by the next year end while trying to protect their net worth on Indian Portfolio. So watch their actiona dn their words more closely.Further, if you see, I have expressed opinion on net sale and purchases. Individual buy and sale figures are much higher. In these figures story of individual stocks are hidden --what they are selling and what they are buying without impacting cost. This is a well known fact. Further they may resort to negotiated sale so that prices are not affected. Even exchanges now allow it as a seperate segment.
The problem comes when they sell more than they buy.
Pankaj
C
-ve's for the Fii & few reason to ventures pull out's with making zero value:
1) the falling Re. is doing more damage to fii investment than we are imagining
2) profit booking by 1 fii is going to trigger a chain reaction nobody will want to leave empty handed
3) what all observations by dada are failing to say is that if 70/80 % fii are long termers, like they buy & are here to hold whether there's bull or bear market for minimum 10/20 years (yes there are creatures like these)
4) that leaves with the hoards who joined the party late & they will pull out fast as situation worstens & believe me when I say they will pull out no matter what, see not all are worried about what dada mentions about cracking the market by pulling out, they dont care, if the scenario world wide is becoming gloomy, profit or loss, pull out is imminent...
5) loads of operator money which entered through fii mask will exit... they entered rigged the market & will leave when they decide game over.
many other reasons but I think these are sufficient to put enough gloom..
1) the falling Re. is doing more damage to fii investment than we are imagining
2) profit booking by 1 fii is going to trigger a chain reaction nobody will want to leave empty handed
3) what all observations by dada are failing to say is that if 70/80 % fii are long termers, like they buy & are here to hold whether there's bull or bear market for minimum 10/20 years (yes there are creatures like these)
4) that leaves with the hoards who joined the party late & they will pull out fast as situation worstens & believe me when I say they will pull out no matter what, see not all are worried about what dada mentions about cracking the market by pulling out, they dont care, if the scenario world wide is becoming gloomy, profit or loss, pull out is imminent...
5) loads of operator money which entered through fii mask will exit... they entered rigged the market & will leave when they decide game over.
many other reasons but I think these are sufficient to put enough gloom..
Czar said:
-ve's for the Fii & few reason to ventures pull out's with making zero value:
1) the falling Re. is doing more damage to fii investment than we are imagining
=QUOTE]
I agree with u here.
But the f2s are hedging their investments by playing volatility.They r really smart a$$es.Even if they r selling,they r selling part by part and and doin value picking also.
I personally feel,its not going to be total doom.Yes downside will be there.But eventually Phoenix will rise from the ashes.
PS and I can see u drooling again at picking up stocks at cheap valuations.
1) the falling Re. is doing more damage to fii investment than we are imagining
=QUOTE]
I agree with u here.
But the f2s are hedging their investments by playing volatility.They r really smart a$$es.Even if they r selling,they r selling part by part and and doin value picking also.
I personally feel,its not going to be total doom.Yes downside will be there.But eventually Phoenix will rise from the ashes.
PS and I can see u drooling again at picking up stocks at cheap valuations.
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