Hi
So todays FII figure from nse
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy Value--- Sell Value---
Net Value
15-Jun-2006--- 1555.75--- 1433.60---
122.15
16-Jun-2006--- 2784.36--- 2185.23---
599.13
19-Jun-2006--- 1051.07--- -1078.80---
( -27.73)
20-Jun-2006---- 1229.80---- 1435.03----
( -205.23 )
21-Jun-2006---- 907.58---- 1118.19----
( -210.61 )
22-Jun-2006--- 1307.74--- 1284.22---
23.52
For the same period Nifty figure was
Date---
Open ---High--- Low---
Close
15-Jun-2006---
2634.10--- 2814.15--- 2634.10---
2798.80
16-Jun-2006---
2799.85--- 2960.15--- 2799.85---
2890.35
19-Jun-2006---
2892.00--- 2932.90--- 2846.50---
2916.90
20-Jun-2006----
2919.00---- 2919.00--- 2837.45---
2861.30
21-Jun-2006----
2861.40---- 2930.80--- 2836.40---
2923.45
22-Jun-2006----
2923.75--- 3017.65---- 2923.75----
2994.75
Sebi figure for the same are
Reporting Date--- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)----
Net Investment (Rs Crores) ----Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
22-JUN-2006----- 1152.20----- 1060.70----
91.60---- 20.20
And our ever reticent mutual fund managers
date ----buy-----sell-----
net
21.06.06---343.61---245.68----
97.93
Total---4900.05---7044.77---(-2144.72)
What do we think of these details.
They are marginally net buyer along with our MFs. Total trading activity remained subdued. This week nifty and sensex were expected to remain firm riding on positive investor sentimants globally. It has gryated wildly. Three days out of four days so far indices closed in green after opening with a gap. Somewhere I read the theory that such gaps are largly filled up on subsequent price action. If that is so then friday may not be good.
Today I feel sensex has shown maturity and indicated the return of retail investors.
But then FIIs profit from the money of such investors who return to market thinking hyenas have all gone and field is safe for grazing. Only swiftest among them survive. Rest become fodder for this profit machine.
Today I was reading one article. about FII investment inIndia.
It noted that SEBI was forced to come out with the figures of breakup data on FII investment in 2004. Abt 40% of FII investment was through Participatory notes where client disclosure norms are weak. It only hinted that it may be monies accumulated through improper channel and may be some from India involved in it. I don't know the veracity of such reports.
But what I feel is that before insisting on disclosure norms from others SEBI ahould also become transparent and responsive. Publish all details before the public and let that be the instrumentfor accountability. On its own this single step will restore the faith in SEBI and people would be able to judge if there is manipulation or not.
The total evidence so far suggests that FIIs can move the market irrespective of underkying fundamental values of a share. They can easily take advantage of their power for their gain. If we follow their actions along with global cues we would get signal when to exit intermediate trade or to protect the profit and re-enter.
This market will remain reange bound and any upmove will bring supply. That is seen in the weakness sensex exhibited during closing hours. That shows that investors are yet to be clear about the future prices.It is quite natural. I have a feeling that we may have reached the bottom ( remember bottom of a river is full of shifting sands and could be tricky).
And in future for quite some time the market will oscillate between 9500 to 11000 range. So far it has not crossed the 10500 it will move in the lower half of the range and this could be the time to take positions in small measures and also realign your portfolio. Exit weak counters on rally and take positions in strong quantities in strong stocks.Mostly A group stocks are preferable. But also remember ifIndia growth story is intact as I generally believe , then smlcps and mdcps have the capacity to outperform the market in a select few sectors such as infrastructure, retail ,real estate, FMCG ,power equipment and transmission companies.Why I am adding these. It is because Govt will be a big spender for all the above thins and collections are also going to increase.This will lead to profitability to companies involved in these.Govt will go big on public -private partnership and Private partners will have big say in that. In any case Indian bureaucracy has proved themself not capable to handle pressures of big development.In fact it proves to be a biggest stumbling block for proper development of the Countries. With our bureaucracy we are able to achieve the growth rate of 8.4% else we would have done 20%. But then that is entirely different story.
So be cautious and take your time to realign LT protfolio. At least that is what I intend to do in near future i.e. somewhere in July
Disregard anything that looks like pro or suggestive of great knpwledge on my part. In fact you can use all my posts to perhaps analyse how ordinary investors with limited knowledge react to market.
Well just checked the DOW and NASDAQ and both are down 0.35% and 0.72% respectively.Opening was lower than the closing and is sliding down the ramp. Both dj and nasdaq are showing enough weakness to continue yesterdays parabolic formation. Indian indices were lower during lasthour before closing. May be tomorrow sensex will be angry with us for not quitely dancing to her tunes. remember I said 5% and above but we choose to book profit. thank god.
On global front they now seem to be staying silent on India story. Waiting for something to say?
Pankaj
