The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[pkjha30]

Hi
Morning update on USA market

Dow and Nasdaq are firmly in green. with 1.03% and 0.88% respectively.
Generally market discounts bad news well in advance and when it finally arrives as per the estimation, it is taken as good or normal news. Sentiments get improved.So the market largely has improved. Latin America is provided here as an academic interest. Argentina and Brazil had 5 digit inflation figures once. Indian sentiments will be more affected by USA and china, europe rather than Brazil. No doubt they are also undergoing the pangs of golbal Correction.

Once Bernanke's labours are over market is sure to find direction for better or worse.

Normally good show at Dow means Indian Market will respond enthusiastically. But for every rally that comes now , there will selling pressure from small investors.Money of FIIs matter and similarly sentiments of investor community matter , both owing to size and can influence each other. So for sentiments to improve , FII money will be needed. One point also struck me is that they aim for 10% or better return in a relatively risky market. Whereas small investors aim for sky. So naturally risks are also shared in the same manner. When FIIs see problem or want to book profit they move markets. Imagine had they booked in January where our markets would be now.

One more point I wanted to add now. Last time in 2004 it was played according to the script. Inflation worries,oil prices($37 and going up!),Fed rate hike,direction of reforms,monsoon worries and then came better then expected corporate performance and then analysts analysed what made their predictions wrong etc....
This time I don't see the difference.( May be japan?? instead of direction of reforms.)

As of now their outflow has not yet crossed 4% of total investment.Wild mood swings are due to lack of depth.

This month will give sense of direction. Till such time wait and watch the show...
Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

brazil has cracked over 2 % from being in green initially, so has mexico & nasdaq, dow hanging on minor gains...

for those interested in checking regularly:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei.html

All has ended in green dear czar, not that it is a small consolation.

Pankaj

 

[Czar]

I expect a rally till 2800 on nifty atleast

 

[shrinivas]

For the uninitiated like me.


Definition of Smart Money

Buy Low and Sell high

Sell High and Buy Low

Definition of Dumb Money


Sell High Buy Low

Buy High Sell Low

Pankaj

hey pankaj...my dear friend,

the bear market, I would say arrive if market touches 8000 levels (I've mentioned exact figures in some other thread).......


but for us, like saint says....treat like winners and loosers and not bulls and bears.....the days of shorts, I think are over.....buy at dips sell at highs...I had done good purchasing in last 3 days, would shave them off today.... still wait for some volatility...but dear pankaj, I would say that if markets hold positive for 3-4 days, consider the trend has changed.....
I never wait for bottoms and start when it is near..similarly, I never wait for highs, I sell when we are near it......Though this time, my busy schedule, and idiot broker friend and market cocked me up....hmmmmmmm....but i'm cool at minds and want to cover up losses in a span of 1 year.....
right pankaj ??????

one more thing my friend, I believe this is the best time to invest....in this oversold market, one can take handsome profits in 9-10 months.......open your eyes and start......

one last thing, your comments on mtnl..cmp 143

ganeshhity

 

[pkjha30]

hey pankaj...my dear friend,

the bear market, I would say arrive if market touches 8000 levels (I've mentioned exact figures in some other thread).......


but for us, like saint says....treat like winners and loosers and not bulls and bears.....the days of shorts, I think are over.....buy at dips sell at highs...I had done good purchasing in last 3 days, would shave them off today.... still wait for some volatility...but dear pankaj, I would say that if markets hold positive for 3-4 days, consider the trend has changed.....
I never wait for bottoms and start when it is near..similarly, I never wait for highs, I sell when we are near it......Though this time, my busy schedule, and idiot broker friend and market cocked me up....hmmmmmmm....but i'm cool at minds and want to cover up losses in a span of 1 year.....
right pankaj ??????

one more thing my friend, I believe this is the best time to invest....in this oversold market, one can take handsome profits in 9-10 months.......open your eyes and start......

one last thing, your comments on mtnl..cmp 143

ganeshhity

Hi ganesh

It is good that you are keeping kool.That is how money is earned.
Truly bull and bears are the phrases given by the market. I like the phrase winners and loosers as it puts the primary motive in the driving seat.

As fo me, these are the buying opportunities. But the euphemism quoted above does not mean absolute high or absolute low.

For a long term investor buy opprotunities will come once in three years approx when deeeep correction sets in.

But SAINT also said that confirm uptrend and buy on pullbacks.Isn't ?

So I would wait till dust settles.and we see the ground little below. Once in I would be holding for quite some time so stock and sector selection would be important. Big caps are in.

As far as MTNL is concerned, I saw this in 2004 , it was at 121 then it went up beyond 200 on some news. Has tough competition from Bharathi and others.

likely to be merged one day to BSNL. These psu's have been once giant. but unless privatised no hope as I know their staff have too much of bureaucratic attitude built in due to past legacy. Govt. control will not allow it to rise.

I would say if you are able to wait for three four years you might get returns.But by then Bharati will be beyond reach.Its by far the strongest player in telecom sector as of now.

However it is my perception.At around same time vsnl was at 147. it went beyond 400 and now at 350 or so. So just think twice abt psu's. We do have examples of BHEL BEL but remember capitalgoods and engineering was in dumps for decades and capacity build up is a time consuming capital /manpower intensive process. So overnight it can't be done. Hence they are beneficiary by default and not by design.

However I am just observer and not an analyst. I have the option of buying high and selling higher if Fundamentals and sectoral outlook is good in my view. So you have to make your decision.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

Like a teenage girls sensex is swinging to the extremes of the mood.Well may be bear crunching is taking place.Now weak hands in bears will be feeling the heat. Market responds enthusiatically but again it will depend how much of it will be supported by global cues and FIIs. A little upside after purchase is always a morale booster.

Global cues inrespect of India is still negative. But the whole script is playing out in remarkably similar fashion. So investors have to wait for confirmation before they rush in.

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

As Amit said a close above 2800 would be dream come true.

Pent up feelings gave vent to their expressions. The wild gyrations of nifty and sensex reminds me of disco dancers of yesteryears.

This simply indicates that we will de dancing to the tunes of Saturday night fever. Poor bears .

Czar, you were bang on target.
I would say Bull's Eye.

There is only one problem. When we wake up ???

This week and next one will surely provide some answers. And This is no bear party. Amit.

Pankaj

 

[shrinivas]

Hi

As Amit said a close above 2800 would be dream come true.

Pent up feelings gave vent to their expressions. The wild gyrations of nifty and sensex reminds me of disco dancers of yesteryears.

This simply indicates that we will de dancing to the tunes of Saturday night fever. Poor bears .

Czar, you were bang on target.
I would say Bull's Eye.

There is only one problem. When we wake up ???

This week and next one will surely provide some answers. And This is no bear party. Amit.

Pankaj

hey hey hey...bought some today.....this time no mistake..they all are above my buy marks...some good profits...but i did not sell them, this time i've put a small thing called STOP LOSS, which i had not done earlier....I do not want to book profits after today's jump, but i cannot fall prey in the hands of market again....the greatest was mtnl which I've put s/l at 152 (much above my buy)... hope i do right trades from now on...

Thanks a lot to saint and amitda.....yupps thanks to you also pk

ganeshhity

 

[pkjha30]

hey hey hey...bought some today.....this time no mistake..they all are above my buy marks...some good profits...but i did not sell them, this time i've put a small thing called STOP LOSS, which i had not done earlier....I do not want to book profits after today's jump, but i cannot fall prey in the hands of market again....the greatest was mtnl which I've put s/l at 152 (much above my buy)... hope i do right trades from now on...

Thanks a lot to saint and amitda.....yupps thanks to you also pk

ganeshhity

Hi Ganesh

So happy. I am glad to see you back in action. Keep SL very tight in MTNL.

never know the Govt.

And don't be cocky. Market is capable of giving surprises. We are dealing with shadows called expectations of growth. At first sign of trouble they take a plunge. Further, if someting can fall 30% and can go up 10% it can again fall 40%.

Uptrend is not yet confirmed. Though most of the stcoks are ruling midway they are not yet close to 52wk low. In that situation you could go for good stocks by widening the choice. But when it is poised in the middle, better to select focus sector with large caps which will only ensure stability.

Trade, that you can do any time go short , go long keep SL dpending on trend. At least 5 out of 10 times you may be successful.

There is one thing that has happened with me, in the august company of SAINT AMITBE NKP SUPRATIK, MURTHY KARTHIK, I also became analyst. Forgive me. it just rubs off. I am not an anlyst so don't act on my views at all.

Initially I was also wondering why stocks which I thought good are falling , and others are flying. I will give you one example MRPL. Saw at 54 , thought it good. No I didn't spend much on it but a litle bit to test waters. Never saw it rise. CMP 33.In two years return -50%. RIL was 330 then.

So I got some lesson there. Then there was this GTB. Thought good abt it .much hype. Good management etc.

Then read their business profile,other details saw the cocky face of MD. Decided to avoid. Good for me. Now we don't have GTB any more.

So a good study of FA and TA is must so as to avoid entering in the stocks which are weak and also which have run up much. Time to invest is when it is low. and uptrend has just started.

For trade... You know better than I .

God bless you dear Ganesh.
Pankaj

 

[jdm]

looks like the sensex has broken the ominous trendline.