The Best Trading System

[Apacheindian]

Good morning Tuna sir



I have prepared calculator for pivots and sharing it here.

Whenever you have time, can you please check whether the calculations are correct ?



Thanks and Regards



Manoj

Manoj Bro,
Can u please elaborate on how do u use these levels, Specially camrilla levels..?
I found many levels are missing in camrilla pivot column.
Could u please explain how to use it..?
Thanks.

 

[manojborle]

Manoj Bro,
Can u please elaborate on how do u use these levels, Specially camrilla levels..?
I found many levels are missing in camrilla pivot column.
Could u please explain how to use it..?
Thanks.

Frankly I wasn't using anything like pivots, however reading through Tuna sir's thread I am also thinking confluence of pivots can be useful.

 

[Tuna]

Trading Myth-Busters # “It is DISASTROUS to trade with a Bias”​

Well, true – the missing part of this advice is “ * Condition Applies”.

Reason is, "In this Game of Trading, one thing is absolutely correct and that is Nothing holds good in an ABSOLUTE SCALE” , including this stupid myth that you will find every corner of the internet wisdoms – that never come to trading with a bias.

Let’s get to the point.

How difficult it is to identify an uptrend or a downtrend on Daily chart?

Let’s take an example of an Uptrend on Nifty from Last Year Chart.

Let’s also consider, I am discounting that we missed the exact trend reversal point (not easy) and we are also giving a discount that we missed out the first 1/5 of the trend as we were not confirmed on the uptrend.

Now, say at some point on daily chart uptrend - we are sure that uptrend has started – and we are jumping on your intraday trades,


Simple rules for actually trading WITH BIAS (on uptrend, opposite for down). Rules are:

•You are trading on F not on O ( I am not counting in any time decay here)
•I am going to buy on every dip (respecting my SL and my system) and hold it till market close and square off as long as MACD and STOCH on Daily is Bullish
•My position size is constant for each of my trade
•In case of GAP up, I will enter at market open and SL will be on GAP Fill point (or say 50% of it if the gap is more than 50 pips).

•You resume same intraday behaviour once uptrend resumes after a daily pullback (MACD,STOCH again turns Bullish)

•You will keep on doing this till you get a STI Crossover showing end of trend (actually if you are doing weekly analysis, you will stop once you identify trend fatigue)

Now look at this chart and tell me how many Intraday trades would have been a winner for you? You may argue that – well I may not get the exact bottom, fine – who is even asking for it?

The reason I wrote this post- last week was a killer week for my on Nifty (only 1 short though), but I made decent profits all on Longs and “With Bias” Trading. Few my friends who follow my tweets actually questioned my trades with pre-biased mindset and this is what I explained

I trade with Bias sometime (for whole week) based on my weekly analysis for Nifty and also for the significant Global Index (DJI,FTSE and DAX) to check what sort of behaviour expected along with Nifty for coming week. Is there a chance of divergence or confluence. If a Confluence is found and that is with the present trend on Nifty – no looking back.

It takes out the clutter from your decision of going long or short? You know you are doing only one thing that day and will look for a suitable place which will give a lower MAE.


Another plus sign of trading an index with Bias is, you get your pray pretty easily – on uptrend common retailer mindset is – oh man, it is up, lets sell it – and there you go. Here you break one myth "Don't trade with Bias" but cash on another " Follow the Price".

Logically if the trend has to continue on the daily chart, the index has no other way but to go up day by day.

Pull backs will be there (the day you will take hit on your intraday trades for your bias), but the number of bullish days (and the length of the upmove) these two always have to be more compared to pullbacks if the market has to move up. - Anyone having a doubt here, may need to get back to Basic of trend acceleration. So all I am saying - considering ur size is same, you are winning more than losing (not only in count, but also in terms of RR)

And in fact- if your analysis on higher TF (offscreen time) is good, you may actually find the trend fatigue detected early and can skip the higher probability days of pullback and don’t trade with a Bias.

So trading with a Bias is very much rewarding – provided you know what you are doing and know when to stop.


Here all I am doing with a Bias on Intraday – I am trading intraday with the trend on daily chart regardless of the trend on that particular day(This one sentence summarised this whole post)

Caution:

• Trading with Bias is a problem when market in a sideway zone / in Acc/Dist zone. It is not dangerous but your win-rates takes a hit. So going with an open mind helps in that case.
  
• Don’t try this stunt unless u developed the habit of following Price. On my post , yes it may looks easy – but here we will be buying something which is already high and when most of the folks are selling as per daily ASK/BID if you observe) – and this cannot be done with hollow confidence unless you gained experience of doing this profitably
  
• I never tried this on stock, I do this always on Index – I love stuffs which are managed, like market index. Stocks can defy trend on a single good or bad news on that sector or that stock itself. So bias trading can be dangerous. Index being composite one – its reliance on single sector news (good or bad is less).

That’s all Guys. Have a Nice Evening and a Profitable Trading Week ahead.

 

[TraderRavi]

Trading Myth-Busters # “It is DISASTROUS to trade with a Bias”​

Well, true – the missing part of this advice is “ * Condition Applies”.

Reason is, "In this Game of Trading, one thing is absolutely correct and that is Nothing holds good in an ABSOLUTE SCALE” , including this stupid myth that you will find every corner of the internet wisdoms – that never come to trading with a bias.

Let’s get to the point.

How difficult it is to identify an uptrend or a downtrend on Daily chart?

Let’s take an example of an Uptrend on Nifty from Last Year Chart.

Let’s also consider, I am discounting that we missed the exact trend reversal point (not easy) and we are also giving a discount that we missed out the first 1/5 of the trend as we were not confirmed on the uptrend.

Now, say at some point on daily chart uptrend - we are sure that uptrend has started – and we are jumping on your intraday trades,


Simple rules for actually trading WITH BIAS (on uptrend, opposite for down). Rules are:

•You are trading on F not on O ( I am not counting in any time decay here)
•I am going to buy on every dip (respecting my SL and my system) and hold it till market close and square off as long as MACD and STOCH on Daily is Bullish
•My position size is constant for each of my trade
•In case of GAP up, I will enter at market open and SL will be on GAP Fill point (or say 50% of it if the gap is more than 50 pips).

•You resume same intraday behaviour once uptrend resumes after a daily pullback (MACD,STOCH again turns Bullish)

•You will keep on doing this till you get a STI Crossover showing end of trend (actually if you are doing weekly analysis, you will stop once you identify trend fatigue)

Now look at this chart and tell me how many Intraday trades would have been a winner for you? You may argue that – well I may not get the exact bottom, fine – who is even asking for it?



The reason I wrote this post- last week was a killer week for my on Nifty (only 1 short though), but I made decent profits all on Longs and “With Bias” Trading. Few my friends who follow my tweets actually questioned my trades with pre-biased mindset and this is what I explained

I trade with Bias sometime (for whole week) based on my weekly analysis for Nifty and also for the significant Global Index (DJI,FTSE and DAX) to check what sort of behaviour expected along with Nifty for coming week. Is there a chance of divergence or confluence. If a Confluence is found and that is with the present trend on Nifty – no looking back.

It takes out the clutter from your decision of going long or short? You know you are doing only one thing that day and will look for a suitable place which will give a lower MAE.


Another plus sign of trading an index with Bias is, you get your pray pretty easily – on uptrend common retailer mindset is – oh man, it is up, lets sell it – and there you go. Here you break one myth "Don't trade with Bias" but cash on another " Follow the Price".

Logically if the trend has to continue on the daily chart, the index has no other way but to go up day by day.

Pull backs will be there (the day you will take hit on your intraday trades for your bias), but the number of bullish days (and the length of the upmove) these two always have to be more compared to pullbacks if the market has to move up. - Anyone having a doubt here, may need to get back to Basic of trend acceleration. So all I am saying - considering ur size is same, you are winning more than losing (not only in count, but also in terms of RR)

And in fact- if your analysis on higher TF (offscreen time) is good, you may actually find the trend fatigue detected early and can skip the higher probability days of pullback and don’t trade with a Bias.

So trading with a Bias is very much rewarding – provided you know what you are doing and know when to stop.


Here all I am doing with a Bias on Intraday – I am trading intraday with the trend on daily chart regardless of the trend on that particular day(This one sentence summarised this whole post)

Caution:

• Trading with Bias is a problem when market in a sideway zone / in Acc/Dist zone. It is not dangerous but your win-rates takes a hit. So going with an open mind helps in that case.
  
• Don’t try this stunt unless u developed the habit of following Price. On my post , yes it may looks easy – but here we will be buying something which is already high and when most of the folks are selling as per daily ASK/BID if you observe) – and this cannot be done with hollow confidence unless you gained experience of doing this profitably
  
• I never tried this on stock, I do this always on Index – I love stuffs which are managed, like market index. Stocks can defy trend on a single good or bad news on that sector or that stock itself. So bias trading can be dangerous. Index being composite one – its reliance on single sector news (good or bad is less).

That’s all Guys. Have a Nice Evening and a Profitable Trading Week ahead.

Great write up bro :thumb:

 

[Tuna]

"Bad trading is like watching paint dry

You know to leave it alone but u keep wanting to touch it to see if its ready and then regret it " - Tom Dante


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tuna]

My Trading Concept # Generating new winning ideas​

This is the result of 'Blind' Backtesting on a new system I was working on. Do you guys feel it is worth exploring further. TF - 30 mins (so enough time for lazy traders, allowed overnight carry forwards).


Total number of trades: 32
Average number of trades per month: 8
Number of profitable trades: 21
Number of losing trades: 11

Total profit: 1126.2000
Total loss: -442.8000
Percent profit: 60.682%

Largest profit: 150.8500
Largest loss: -159.1500

Maximum Drawdown: 0.0000
Maximum Drawdown (Monte Carlo): -40.3000
Compound Monthly ROR: 0

Standard deviation: 664.02140402

Annualized standard deviation: 1328.04280804
Downside deviation (MAR = 10%): 39.80000000

Value Added Monthly Index (VAMI): 1.00000000
Sharpe ratio (RFR = 5%): 1.02910839

Annualized Sharpe ratio (RFR = 5%): 2.05821679
Sortino ratio (MAR = 5%): 0
Annualized Sortino ratio (MAR = 5%): 0
Sterling ratio (MAR = 5%): 0
Calmar ratio: 0.00000000
Risk to reward ratio: 0.803

 

[Happy_Singh]

Total profit: 1126.2000
Total loss: -442.8000

so Profit Ratio = 1126/443 = 2.5 which is tradable (for swing/positional prefer 3 or more)

I would investigate the biggest loser of -159.15 and if the reason is a gap against the position then ok,
else need to look into those big losers/gainers

Don't really understand these ratios Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, et al

Thanks

Happy

 

[Tuna]

Total profit: 1126.2000
Total loss: -442.8000

so Profit Ratio = 1126/443 = 2.5 which is tradable (for swing/positional prefer 3 or more)

I would investigate the biggest loser of -159.15 and if the reason is a gap against the position then ok,
else need to look into those big losers/gainers

Don't really understand these ratios Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, et al

Thanks

Happy

Thanks Happy Bro.

Additional Details on this Setup given Below (I will check same on my other testing platform, it is currently down for maintenance)

*-----------------------------------------------------------*
Instrument (Nifty Spot)
TF - 30 mins
Indicator (Lagging) - EMA 20, 100(for Long) and 100, 10 (for short)
Oscillator Stoch (20,3,9,SMA) - only K is used with level 80 and 20, no use of D

*---------------------------Theory----------------------------*
My Same old thing but on 30 mins - Buy Pullback on trend day - only thing, added new is the fixed exit rules

*---------------------------Tradescript Code------------------*

Long Trigger

SET FEMA = EMA(CLOSE,20)
SET SEMA = EMA(CLOSE,100)
SET STOC = SOPK(20, 3, 9, SIMPLE)
# Long Condition
REF(CLOSE,1)<REF(FEMA,1) AND CLOSE>FEMA AND CLOSE>SEMA

Long Exit

#DECLARATION
SET FEMA = EMA(CLOSE,20)
SET SEMA = EMA(CLOSE,100)
SET STOC = SOPK(20, 3, 9, SIMPLE)
#EXIT Condition
REF(STOC,1)>80 AND STOC<80 OR FEMA<SEMA


Short Trigger

#DECLARATION
SET FEMA = EMA(CLOSE,10)
SET SEMA = EMA(CLOSE,100)
SET STOC = SOPK(20, 3, 9, SIMPLE)
# Short Condition
REF(CLOSE,1)>REF(FEMA,1) AND CLOSE<FEMA AND CLOSE<SEMA

Short Exit

#DECLARATION
SET FEMA = EMA(CLOSE,10)
SET SEMA = EMA(CLOSE,100)
SET STOC = SOPK(20, 3, 9, SIMPLE)
#EXIT Condition
REF(STOC,1)<20 AND STOC>20 OR FEMA>SEMA

 

[Happy_Singh]

Hi again

One more thing I would look for in the system is the sturdiness . . .

Set up a range for all the variables and see that the performance does not shift to any extreme. . .

for e.g study the effect for Long MAs from 15 to 25 and that of short from 05 to 15

we are not doing it to find out the best fit, but to see if all the samples are within our range of tradability

Thanks

Happy

 

[Tuna]

Sure Bro, let me check it out