Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[Mr.G]

That's why we do fundamental analysis. To protect ourselves from scams.

 

[jamit_05]

Another phenomenal company as come to sight:

Engineer India​

.

It has always been nice for over a decade now but now it is desirable because the price is approaching 2008 LOW !!

Its valuations as per earnings is around 200. Have not looked at assets since it is a consulting company.

What makes the stock super nice is its CMP 150 !!

It has gathered serious bearish momentum, so waiting for sub 100 levels is justified.

Thus far it respected Rs.150 price tag. Made a high of 197.

 

[jamit_05]

Auto Sector is going to do really badly this year. Probably a good chance to buy

1) Maruti Suzuki (absolute leader in 4 whlrs and wide range of well accepted products)
2) Bajaj Auto (emerging leader in 2 whlrs, after fall out of Hero and Honda)
3) Ashok Leyland (@ Rs.6 to 10 not a penny higher)

Maruti made a double top on the monthly chart. It is all bad from hereon.

Price could break out of the double top, but that will not be possible without solid fundamentals.

 

[jamit_05]

Hindalco, Tata Steel, Bhel, Sail are being bashed, Punished. Poor performing sectors.

 

[jamit_05]

Question: What is an ideal time to buy stocks for the long term?

Nifty 4500; Yes, it might seem too hawkish a stance, but it is reasonable. It is only a 52-week Low... not so distant.

It is very important to have ones portfolio on a solid ground. Else, there is always a lurking insecurity due to which one cringes hence reduces volume of investment or is easily shaken out. Hence, buying at appropriate Margin Of Safety is important.

Value Investors hv different views about MoS. Most derive this value from Excel Sheets and fundamental data. However, I trust charts more as they reflect crowd behavior, which affects prices more than fundamentals do.

4500 is a Major Monthly pivot and hence is a fair value. A safe place to go all-in. Another observation is that, after trading below 52 Week Lows, NIFTY soon gets exhausted hence reducing the period in which the portfolio is negative.

Historically it has been proven that PE 12 is the lower extreme for Nifty where the speculative element in the stock prices is, for the most part, removed. Hence, an ideal time to put in ones money. After all analysis, safety is the Only Mantra that really works.

I believe, Nf won't come anywhere near 4500 till completion of General Elections. So, the Indices will start reflecting the nations true economical status in the second half of 2014.

The idea is to make a well founded base at 4500, then on all future income can be fearlessly put into any stock, which is selected after diligent study. Price will not be important. Then even if you have to SIP at 5500 there is no worry as the average cost won't be much affected. In that light, starting a portfolio at current prices is clearly a financial suicide.

 

[Relish]

FOr your COal India CAll.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fi...0bn-corrupt-cos-gaining-tcis-hohn_866871.html

Thank's for providing article. I know some point what what he mentioned in article is much more worse Why we should invest in India when we had companies in Europe running after shareholder

 

[jamit_05]

Some sectors are getting badly beaten up. The stock prices are at very low PEs. Picking the leaders in these industries is not a bad bet. SIP in them will surely beat FDs, but in the very long term.

Badly Beaten up Sectors: Leaders

1. Sugar: Balrampur Chini
2. Capital Goods: Bhel, EiL (it may still hv 30% corr left)
3. Shipping: SCI
4. Mining: NMDC
5. Metals: Nalco, Sail, Hind Copper (Hind zinc is still expensive)
6. Realty: -None- (I do not trust this sector!)

Once hailed as good performing sectors, are now available at super low PEs. Great Bargains.

I did not mention Tata Steel in the list because it has really bad times ahead. A python swallowed a prey too big. Its EU arm posted a net loss of 1.5 Billion !! TS has another 50% to lose.

 

[jamit_05]

Thank's for providing article. I know some point what what he mentioned in article is much more worse Why we should invest in India when we had companies in Europe running after shareholder

Unlike what TS has shown this is profit forgone, not a loss. Yes, GOI is doing it to arrest inflation due to which shareholders are not getting their profits. It is happening in almost every PSU. The very reason why PSUs are available at a steep discount, and will continue to be cheap till inflation is high.

Check out.. EiL, Bhel, Sail, Nalco, Hind Copper all Ace cos available at cheap. They will exist for another 10 years. So no need to worry as long as the purchase price is decent.

 

[jamit_05]

Now, very little can come between Tata Steel reaching 2008 Lows, at the very least. It's Euro arm posted a major Loss !!

If a behemoth cannot is not making money, it goes to show the slowdown in the Metals Sector. Not only that, it clearly reflects slowdown in the sectors connected: Like Infrastructure, Industries, Realty.

Performance of Steel is directly cor-related to the performance of the country/world. If Steel is suffering there is no growth. Be super cautious before buying stock. No support is good enough.

 

[arch_tt]

Any idea when steel stock would recover.