Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
my guts feel say on 16th May lower circuit is done deal ..

Bjp will get only 160-170 ...there vote share may be higher but in seats they will not get above this no.

and this is also suit Market psychology as well .. first trap in poor retail traders ..... and then one day just bubble burst to wipe their account

I will buy these two share at

Reliance at 400
and SBI at 900
Nifty currently is strongly bullish, which will, inevitably, be followed by a decline. What causes really sharp downfalls is, when declines are combined with bad news.... in such times no support is good enough, especially the higher ones... then only strong and clear supports on monthly chart have power enough to absorb the momentum.
 

Vertigo_1985

Well-Known Member
There is a good chance, like every other possibility, that market keeps going up vertically (forever). Then should I let this possibility dictate purchasing decisions? Should I buy expensive?

Definitely NO. The reason why I might achieve success as an investor is if I buy good stocks for cheap.

I do not recommend purchasing Mahaseam at these rates, or even 50% lower than CMP.... :)
I understand that you have your own strategy and you are following it. It's great that you have been making money with it which is the thing that finally matters but however for discussion sake lets assume that you applied same strategy in 2005..so when and which year would you have entered ?
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
I understand that you have your own strategy and you are following it. It's great that you have been making money with it which is the thing that finally matters but however for discussion sake lets assume that you applied same strategy in 2005..so when and which year would you have entered ?
LOL :) Nice point V. I understand what you exactly mean: I would've missed the big rallies in 2006 and 2007. I would be sitting with cash in hand.

At the same time, I would've been shielded from the Lehman brothers fall in 2008 and, to answer your question, would have entered at 2595, which is 2006 lows. At that is what I am interested in, making a portfolio in a low risk environment, when a lot of steam has fizzed away from stock prices.

And, just to set the record straight, I have not made any money from long term investment since I have not invested any of my cash in stocks as yet. However, I am anticipating that soon I will have a better option than FDs.
 
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jamit_05

Well-Known Member
I don't know where you were in 2008

And in 2011 December, why didn't you pile up 100 percent stock at cheap level?
Did not have an investor's mindset until about less than a year ago. And now, sure as hell, I won't be missing any such chances.

2011 lows is now a dream come true!
 

Vertigo_1985

Well-Known Member
LOL :) Nice point V. I understand what you exactly mean: I would've missed the big rallies in 2006 and 2007. I would be sitting with cash in hand.

At the same time, I would've been shielded from the Lehman brothers fall in 2008 and, to answer your question, would have entered at 2595, which is 2006 lows. At that is what I am interested in, making a portfolio in a low risk environment, when a lot of steam has fizzed away from stock prices.

And, just to set the record straight, I have not made any money from long term investment since I have not invested any of my cash in stocks as yet. However, I am anticipating that soon I will have a better option than FDs.
by same logic you would have entered in march 2008 around 4500, so next question would be how you would have managed your exits ?

IMO falls like Lehman brother are low probability events, so getting long with major trend using protection is wiser than sitting on sidelines in fear of a big fall.
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
by same logic you would have entered in march 2008 around 4500, so next question would be how you would have managed your exits ?

IMO falls like Lehman brother are low probability events, so getting long with major trend using protection is wiser than sitting on sidelines in fear of a big fall.
Yes, would hv purchased a good amount in 2008, but at 3555, which is the major monthly pivot 52 weeks ago.

Sitting on sidelines is very important for me, while I patiently await a low risk setup. I give paramount importance to my capital.

Paisa bhagwan nahi hai,
Par bhagwan sae kam nahi hai.

I want to ensure that I make the bulk of my portfolio in very sharp corrections. Then on, I may SIP at corrections (like 200W moving avg. etc). The base must be on solid grounds, which once established cannot be shaken easily.


PS:

STOCKS MUST NOT BE blindly purchased at 52w lows. This is only a part of a setup. Then on one must study the balance sheet, EPS growth, historic PEs, debt levels, promoter pledging and prospect of the industry, before listing a stock for purchase.

Even passive index investing is unsafe. Pls note that stocks that were the big shots in 80s, are now languishing. It is not rare to find big stocks, that fall big, fail to revive themselves to former glory.
 

dhinakar113

Well-Known Member
PS:

STOCKS MUST NOT BE blindly purchased at 52w lows. This is only a part of a setup. Then on one must study the balance sheet, EPS growth, historic PEs, debt levels, promoter pledging and prospect of the industry, before listing a stock for purchase.

Amit,

Can we know which are the stocks in your watch list for buying? ... if you don't mind.
 
my guts feel say on 16th May lower circuit is done deal ..

Bjp will get only 160-170 ...there vote share may be higher but in seats they will not get above this no.

and this is also suit Market psychology as well .. first trap in poor retail traders ..... and then one day just bubble burst to wipe their account

I will buy these two share at

Reliance at 400
and SBI at 900
"I hereby pledge to leave stock market for ever if BJP gets below 170 seats or AAP gets more then 1 seat"....
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
my guts feel say on 16th May lower circuit is done deal ..

Bjp will get only 160-170 ...there vote share may be higher but in seats they will not get above this no.

and this is also suit Market psychology as well .. first trap in poor retail traders ..... and then one day just bubble burst to wipe their account

I will buy these two share at

Reliance at 400
and SBI at 900
SBI 935 is confirmed, if BJP is unable to gather majority... it will be havoc. Some really good stocks will appear worthy of purchase... I will have sleepless nights thinking what to buy :)
 

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