Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[roketsingh]

@Eins
Just in case, if you were wondering why I asked for that information then the idea was to get some information about fund managers that I like to follow or whose investment style I like.

These people will certainly have much higher exposure to information and hence they can take better decisions, since MFs are long only so they give better investment ideas and you can look at the change in holdings QoQ. You don't need to follow them blindly but from a universe of stock you can narrow down your range or it might aid you in the process if nothing more.

 

[Einstein]

These people will certainly have much higher exposure to information and hence they can take better decisions, since MFs are long only so they give better investment ideas and you can look at the change in holdings QoQ. You don't need to follow them blindly but from a universe of stock you can narrow down your range or it might aid you in the process if nothing more.

few months back I was check the holdings of LIC, most of them are expensive or either bad businesses. Its an illusion that those with the big bugs certainly knows about the market. remember what happened to gitanjali gems??

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked, let the bear market come and they will be selling their holdings..

in 1971, pension fund managers invested a record 122% of net funds available in equities - at full prices they couldn't buy enough of them. In 1974, after the bottom had fallen out, they committed a then record low of 21% to stocks. - warren buffett to his shareholders.

 

[jamit_05]

The breadth of the market is dismal. Only the top 12/20 stocks are holding the Index up. Index is flirting with all time highs with dull momentum. Whereas most stocks are no where near their ATHs.

For ex.
RIL ATH 1626, CMP 908;
SBIN 3515/1886

The list is endless. Include, LT, BHEL, ACC, all Tata Stocks (exp TCS).

I won't believe in any such rally which has such poor breadth. In fact, I won't believe in any rally without RIL participating!

What worries me, for the holding investors, is what the impending fall will do. If index touching ATH could not gather buyers, then what will!

Price will soon catch up to the poor fundamentals. Be really bearish. In the coming months, stocks will witness a fall. Some good stocks will get attractive and some will even make all time lows.

 

[oilman5]

next time has come, something is goofing in HPCL............may be some diesel price increase(i dont believe)
but sept result should be good as sudden volume surge started ........a target of 220 at sight within nov.
definitely..............new refinery production at punjab should reflect in profitability.
...............good to play future.............may also play call 205/210............with 50% stop.
hope u know leverage play rule............be assured of direction .


...............................................................................................
hope u have taken benefit of the call.
next is high risk nifty short,..........since 1st day -bias..........as per rule of trade join in PUT buy , i have chosen 6200 strike,...........since nifty shall go definitely below 6200 within Nov/13.
if u take this trade, i say - bias............after 2 days , direction of market will be definite............presently sideways. So underwrite 6300 call is good alternative.

 

[jamit_05]

Current State of affairs in Capital Goods and Eng. Cos.

The Mask of TTM​

The EPS (Earning Per Share) is reported in the TTM format. It is an acronym for Trailing Twelve Month.

Lets see how that is deceiving to the lay investor.

Let us take a real life example and see if we can generate logical expectations. Last 8 quarters the EPS for BHEL has been 6, 13.8, 3.8, 5.2, 4.8, 13.2, 2, 1.9

TTM EPS would be the total of last 4 quarters (12 months).

TTM EPS for BHEL = 22;

This includes the better performance from last year, which we know is long gone. Now, the times are tough, which is evident from the lowest EPS in last two quarters. But, TTM masks that effect.

So, an aware Investor must go deeper to get information than relyin on what is readily available.

I do not see an immediate turnaround of fortunes of this industry. I can safely conclude that, the total EPS of BHEL won't be more than Rs.13 per share by end of year. And that is drastically lesser compared to last year EPS of 30! And is also a sharp deviation from EPS TTM Rs. 21 per share, which is being fed to the general public.

This fall in EPS will sharply reflect in Bhel's share price. I see it going even below Rs.100 in the next downleg of Nifty. Capital Goods sector will be the favourite scrip for selling.

So Invest consciously.

 

[shreeux]

Re: Current State of affairs in Capital Goods and Eng. Cos.

The Mask of TTM​

The EPS (Earning Per Share) is reported in the TTM format. It is an acronym for Trailing Twelve Month.

Lets see how that is deceiving to the lay investor.

Let us take a real life example and see if we can generate logical expectations. Last 8 quarters the EPS for BHEL has been 6, 13.8, 3.8, 5.2, 4.8, 13.2, 2, 1.9

TTM EPS would be the total of last 4 quarters (12 months).

TTM EPS for BHEL = 22;

This includes the better performance from last year, which we know is long gone. Now, the times are tough, which is evident from the lowest EPS in last two quarters. But, TTM masks that effect.

So, an aware Investor must go deeper to get information than relyin on what is readily available.

I do not see an immediate turnaround of fortunes of this industry. I can safely conclude that, the total EPS of BHEL won't be more than Rs.13 per share by end of year. And that is drastically lesser compared to last year EPS of 30! And is also a sharp deviation from EPS TTM Rs. 21 per share, which is being fed to the general public.

This fall in EPS will sharply reflect in Bhel's share price. I see it going even below Rs.100 in the next downleg of Nifty. Capital Goods sector will be the favourite scrip for selling.

So Invest consciously.

I am holding 102 onwards...now 140qts...

 

[Einstein]

Re: Current State of affairs in Capital Goods and Eng. Cos.

--BHEL--

If the company is not growing thats the reason investors are pulling their money out and made this into an attractive security for investment. PAT margin are expected to be flat in near future, but as I said before QE tapering can make it expensive for capital goods sector to import good, which will ultimately help BHEL.

The engineering sector is one of the major contributors to the country's total merchandise shipments. The US and Europe together account for over 60 per cent of India's total engineering exports.

Engineering exports mainly include transport equipment, capital goods, other machinery/equipment and light engineering products like castings, forgings and fasteners.

The Ministry of Commerce and Industries has set a target of shipping US$ 125 billion worth of engineering goods by the end of 2013-14. Indian engineering companies are scouting for newer markets (like Latin America, Africa etc.) for exports along with strengthening their base in the US and Europe.

During April-February 2012-2013, exports from the sector stood at US$ 51 billion.


BHEL hopes to earn Rs 1,500 crore (US$ 251.77 million) of additional business, arising out of this recently-signed technology tie-up with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


Products
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd having the following products
• Power
• Industry
• Transmission
• Transportation
• Non Conventional Energy Source
• R&D Products

Services & Systems
The company has providing the following Service and the Systems

Power Generation Systems
• Turnkey power stations.
• Combined-cycle power plants.
• Cogeneration systems.
• Modernization and rehabilitation of power stations.
• Erection commissioning, operation and maintenance services.
• Spares management.
• Consultancy services.


Transmission Systems
• Sub-stations switchyards
• HVDC transmission systems
• Shunt and series compensation systems.
• Power system studies.
• Erection commissioning, operation and maintenance services.
• Consultancy services


Transportation Systems
• Traction systems.
• Urban transportation systems.
• Erection commissioning, operation and maintenance services.
• Consultancy services.


Industrial Systems
• Industrial drives and control systems.
• Erection


BHEL have a share of around 57% in India's total installed generating capacity contributing 69% (approx.) to the total power generated from utility sets (excluding non-conventional capacity) as of March 31, 2013.


BHEL has won a prestigious order for the Energy Efficient Renovation & Modernization (EE R&M) of a 210 MW thermal unit in Maharashtra by the Maharashtra State Power Generation Corporation Limited (MSPGCL). The World Bank-funded contract Rs.4500 mn under International Competitive Bidding (ICB).


BHEL has won major turnkey contracts from NTPC for setting up the eco-friendly Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) power plants, each of 10 MW capacities, at Unchahar in Uttar Pradesh and Talcher in Odisha, valued at Rs.1320 Million.


BHEL has won a contract from Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd for its Integrated Refinery Project (IREP) at Kochi Refinery in Kerala, valued at around Rs. 2650 Million. The order envisages supply and supervision of 3 nos. Gas Turbines of 34.5 MW rating each, with associated auxiliaries and control systems.

 

[jamit_05]

Re: Current State of affairs in Capital Goods and Eng. Cos.

I am holding 102 onwards...now 140qts...

102 is a good price to hold BHEL for the very long term... You will emerge a winner.

 

[Einstein]

undiluted, dividend not adjusted.

Im expecting about 15% increase in Net Profit from next year if prices goes up again. but this is pure speculation.


As per my valuations with such growth and such company should be valued at approx 61,19,000 Cr. as current market cap is 32,907.98 Cr. this is a good deal. By the way, this quarter was not that bad, just 9.5 crores less PAT then last quarter.. I give it thumbs up..

If one is looking to invest for 5 years +, and if Bhel manages to increase its sales as I m expecting it to do in near future, then its a buy.

add: years in chart are wrong please ignore.

 

[Einstein]

Doing research on Petrochina, ConocoPhillips and Posco, will post my views and conclusion