Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[jamit_05]

250-300 sounds like a far cry for this scrip.

One gentleman drilled one fact in my mind... never try to estimate lower or upper extent of a share price. If one has an appropriate perspective then the market is a very kind entity. It has the potential to fulfill all your dreams.... just remember to buy right companies at the right price and hold.

I remember reading an article recently, where an octogenarian has amassed crores by the way of buying good companies for cheap and holding... simple. In fact, she did a poor job. She bought around 1500 plus companies! So much for analysis.

PS: HDFC down another 4% today... to 580... I am confident I will get a fill at Rs.400!

 

[jamit_05]

Re: Banking Stocks

It is a question of your objectives. Why do you want to invest (in any sector)?

I invest in stocks with the intention to hold for a long period. I see it as a good place to park my money for twice the return of FDs, saves me taxes, gives me dividend and attracts no maintenance cost (as opposed to MFs).

In that light, I have recently included SBIN @1800 in my portfolio allocating 2%. Will buy a little more at lower levels of 1500 and 900.

Yes Bank, Axis Bank, Allahabad Bank, IDFC, HDFC and Andhra bank are on my pending list of purchase in the mentioned order. I am waiting for a better price.

To answer your question,

I like Yes and Axis bank for their good businesses and reputations.

I will buy,

Yes bank Rs.230
Axis Bank at Rs. 800

and not a rupee higher.

Looking at the way Yes Bank fell, made me check deeper into the company. And I found out a major negative point, which made me reassess my decision to purchase Yes Bank.

 

[jamit_05]

I was split between buying SBI and Axis. I favoured SBI, for now.

The only reason was SBI would offer more stability, simply because it is a bigger bank at almost three times the Market Cap.

Lets look at it from a Technical angle.

In the above image, you will see that SBI from the current support level of 1500, has to fall by Rs.600 to reach the next support of Rs.900 (2009 lows); that is a fall of 40%.

Whereas, axis will have to fall 65% to reach the lows of 2009!

That may be on a higher time frame. So, lets look at what happened recently.

I purchased SBI at 1798 on 17th July. Now SBI is 1527, which is a fall of around 14.50 %
In the same period Axis fell 24% !

Axis has a higher Beta, and hence will fall harder and even rise sharper. This is a falling market, so holding onto more stable scrips is sensible.

 

[nileshsh]

I have a query.I am a small investor who want to invest in stocks on SIP basis.I am willing to put 2k every month.But I dont know which stocks should I put my money.When market is falling every stock is looking attractive to buy.I want only blue chips.I have Nifty Bees also with me. Should I continue investing in Nifty Bees because i have too much confusion in stock selection.Kindly advise sir.

 

[jamit_05]

I have a query.I am a small investor who want to invest in stocks on SIP basis.I am willing to put 2k every month.But I dont know which stocks should I put my money.When market is falling every stock is looking attractive to buy.I want only blue chips.I have Nifty Bees also with me. Should I continue investing in Nifty Bees because i have too much confusion in stock selection.Kindly advise sir.

The primary problem you are facing is that of Selecting Companies. And honestly speaking, there is no way around it. You could invest in MFs, but they are not very reliable. Most don't even beat the index, which in and itself gives lame returns. Therefore, your investment in Nifty-bees wont be very interesting. Nifty has not given any returns in the last 5 years!

I could give you a list of 10 stocks, but one has to keep in touch to make sure the fundamentals are intact.

In short, there is no automated way. You will have to take personal interest in your investments... else you are at the mercy of someone else, which I do not suggest.

And investing is interesting. Start small, learn a little everyday. Soon you will start having an affair with a few companies; An affair which will last a lifetime.

 

[jamit_05]

Christ!!

IDFC down another 9% today. I did not expect it to reach 2011 lows that soon.

It is of the HDFC group. It is in good hands, but falling because of languishing sector. It is a good stock to own. But, at lower price.

If this 14% fall in IDFC does not get reversed within a few hours.... then a serious bearish tone will set in.

Nothing can stop the share price from reaching its Issue Price of Rs.50, which was way back in 2006!

 

[Einstein]

@ AMit, can you clarify one doubt about FII please?

people are yelling about outgoing FII. but as per the records, the more money foreign trader/investors pulling out indian investors are investing with desi money in stock market.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php?sel_month=201308

then should we really be scared from fii going out?? I mean before FDI it was all domestic investors.!!

 

[jamit_05]

@ AMit, can you clarify one doubt about FII please?

people are yelling about outgoing FII. but as per the records, the more money foreign trader/investors pulling out indian investors are investing with desi money in stock market.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php?sel_month=201308

then should we really be scared from fii going out?? I mean before FDI it was all domestic investors.!!

You should definitely be worried about FII going out. Don't go by what the news articles have to say. The biggest problem with FII exiting is that, they do it fast causing a panic.

 

[Gandhar.]

amit a new stock bharti infratel
dont have much levels around so what levels would be good to buy?

 

[jamit_05]

Today's crash is nothing but an exercise in PE re-rating.

Companies who's PEs are high and but the future prospects are not all that good anymore, are being dumped... causing the PE to fall. Hence, PE re-rating to lower levels.

HDFC had to crash. It is relying on income from housing/realty sector, which is bound to go dull for a prolonged period. I mentioned this fact to another veteran on another forum. He was considering HDFC bank as a perennial buy at any and all levels.

Bhel, too, fell 10% plus.

IDFC went topsy turvy. No matter how good the management is, after all the business has to generate money for the share price to sustain. Price of Rs.45 is in order.

Our dear, Axis Bank it too collapsed well by 55 odd points. Whereas SBI was fairly okay in comparison.