Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[alex_26]

OK Jamit ...dats basically actually accumulations at each dip for a bluechip stock...Still i wanted to know....wat r d parameters u made analysis wid....which is made u forecast dat this stock might come as low as in n around 950.......

 

[Einstein]

OK Jamit ...dats basically actually accumulations at each dip for a bluechip stock...Still i wanted to know....wat r d parameters u made analysis wid....which is made u forecast dat this stock might come as low as in n around 950.......

Aam khao bhai!! ped mat gino!

 

[jamit_05]

OK Jamit ...dats basically actually accumulations at each dip for a bluechip stock...Still i wanted to know....wat r d parameters u made analysis wid....which is made u forecast dat this stock might come as low as in n around 950.......

Although it may seem like it, but the intention is not to forecast. From all the years of trading, if I have learned one thing then this is it: Predictions are not reliable. One must rely on logic.

RBI is making policies that are unfavourable to the Banks. But, that is not as detrimental to stock prices like if FIIs start withdrawing from India and investing in US Bonds. In which case another 50% correction, esp in underperforming sectors, is a matter of a few months. (All time lows for cyclical-stocks and midcaps!)

The next crucial support for SBIN is 2008 Lows, which in my unassailable opinion is a "Killer Price". If that arrives in my lifetime, then I will purchase reliable and big companies that will survive the next half-a-century!

And hope everyone else does that too... a gift to posterity.

 

[jamit_05]

Is it a good time to invest into metal sector for 5 year time period in mind??

If you start SIP now, then surely when the upcycle comes you will definitely get twice the FD, but the issue is the wait may be long. Nifty may go to hell and back before the upcycle comes.

I mean, NALCO is at 29 and ATH is 140; That is a 350% growth. If that happens in say 15 years I still make a tax free 23% not compounding. Which is not bad at all! Almost 4 times FD.

But, who is to say that Nalco won't reach Rs.9 when Nifty falls to 4500?

For, 3 lakh Rs, I can currently get 10000 shares of Nalco... but at Rs.10, I will get 30000 shares... that is a three times more! It is a little tempting, don't you think? Besides what the hurry, lets see at least 4 quarterly reports for robust numbers instead of predicting the start of upcycle.

 

[alex_26]

Well Jamit,

I was talking abt d logic too...parameters to judge.

Ur explanation showed d importance of FII....on evaluating stocks.

Rupee getting devalued every day bcoz of world market sentiments.Hence no measure by d Govt n RBI is helping d matters.

Wid already 50% stocks already lying down @ 2008 lows... and also ....rupees will go where it is supposed to go to ...lets wait n watch for d Killer Price.

 

[Gandhar.]

jamit what do u think about OMCs and shobha dev ?

 

[jamit_05]

jamit what do u think about OMCs and shobha dev ?

Don't want to buy anything that has to do with realty... basically realty stocks are very cyclical. And none has the branding to survive the downcycle... so its a tough call.

 

[jamit_05]

Well Jamit,

I was talking abt d logic too...parameters to judge.

Ur explanation showed d importance of FII....on evaluating stocks.

Rupee getting devalued every day bcoz of world market sentiments.Hence no measure by d Govt n RBI is helping d matters.

Wid already 50% stocks already lying down @ 2008 lows... and also ....rupees will go where it is supposed to go to ...lets wait n watch for d Killer Price.

Alex bhai...

It would be misleading to rely on just a bunch of parameters to buy stocks with hard earned money. I would recommend that you develop an approach. To start with, subscribe to a school of thought.

The talk about US FED, RBI etc helps one to gauge the sentiment. Does not really help in selecting stocks, but helps in selecting levels.

Most of the stocks that are currently down 50% are not really interesting. And the ones we are interested in are still expensive.

For ex:
I am super keen on purchasing ACC. Have been waiting for 1 to 2 years since I understood the strength of the company.
Although the cement and realty sectors have been languishing for a while now, to my delight, ACC only started to crack this month! The best crack the last.

If bears build a momentum, it won't be long before the stock corrects 50%, which is nearby 2010 low of an exact Rs.700!

 

[alex_26]

Well Jamit,

The best cracks d last...So dats one of d basic parameter if not d most important parameter .

Also i agree many stocks falling lifetime low might go bankrupt or might not rise for long time or may hav left their best days behind 'em.

 

[jamit_05]

Alex.

Yes, turnover is important. Look for the term market capitalization while using the stock screening software. The higher the Market Cap the more stable the company usually is.

Don't take too much liking for low cap stocks.