Well if you took it that someone predicted index 25000 in this forumsorry, that is not what I meant. This forum is going on for several years now.but still I would consider it relatively new..in the context of my stock market related readings that go back to the days of that two page market trends newsletter from one mansukhani of Bombay in the early eighties when index used to be in three digits !
Now I am writing from my memory as there are no archives of those pre internet agein the heady days when index reached 4000 for the first time ..i remember an analyst from Hyderabadyasaswy was telling about index reaching 25000 etc..though he was known among the market circles it never made any headline news those daysunlike in the recent instance when a sebi member wished that the index would reach 16000 when it was at 6000further I recall remembering that when I came across Glassmans Dow 36000 much later.well incidentally after that bubble burst and index languished for several years before reaching those values again and everybody forgot about all such talk till the next one the dotcom bubble!!
HI
WHY DOES NOT ANY ANALYSTS SAY THAT THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE CHANGED? 1) The global currency markets are in a tizz
2) USA has done whatever it could to help in the
sub prime mess... the FED now says "no more interest rate cuts"
3) CRUDE has hurt and the
full effects will sink in abt a quarter or two.
4)
Inflation is now perhaps +9% on WPI & +12% on the retail side.It will not cool off in a hurry and is not like viral fever where 'crocin' brings the fever down.
5) Interest rate hikes will ome in for sure in the near future......
we will have to forsake growth to fight inflation. 6)
Capex will slow down and some of it postponed.
7)
FII money is not coming back in a hurry because the guys who bought it in are having a huge credit problem and have to first find money to meet redemption problems...watch Lehman for it's results next week.
7) I expect
Q-3 FY09 NUMBERS TO BE AT ABT +18% SALES GROWTH AND +15% NP GROWTH.
Thus the economic pendulum is swinging down down down.... it started to do so in sept 07