LET ME COMMENT ON IT, ADDING THE TRUTH GIVEN BY FELLOW TRADERS
1]An analogy would be that of restaurants that are open near tourist landmarks. The food may be expensive, but the quality very poor. But inspite of this, the restaurants will have successful business operations, and never close inspite of 100% of the customers having a bad experience. Why is this? Because even if the tourist who has bad food never goes to this restaurant again, there will be thousands of new tourist who will dine there, because they have not experienced the quality of bad food there.
Similar case is with call givers. Even if they lose 100% of there customers each month, but manage to get 20 new customers each month with good marketing, just do the maths. 20*25,000 = 5 lacs rupees per month. This is pure profit. Now just replace the 20 new customers with 50, 70, 100 or more..... That is why tip giving is a good business, and will always remain, as long as there is human greed or gullibility.... . (This, inspite of Omsai bro's one man campaign against tip givers. As the famous Barnum Bailey commented : There is a fool born somewhere on this earth, each minute.... and it is true.) -100% TRUE
2]but there is a psychological reason...the tip provider doesn't know the trader psychology.....and the trader doesn't know how much to Risk..(Risk Parameters) on a particular trade.....sometimes he bet more and sometimes he bet less....what will happen is.... majority of time when he bets his entire/more than half of the capital(by the influence of previous successful trade) he looses the trade. .....and the tip provider only provide entry and exit point(sometimes T1,T2,T3)...but he doesn't tell u how much to risk on a given trade...so trader make his own decision on position sizing...and which causes him to loose sooner or later...
So My conclusion is ....
Never ever follow a Tip provider....every trader is unique...he has to generate his own calls.........100% TRUE
3]"for example intraday tips of ICICI works pretty well, far better than many"- REASON IS MARKET IN BULL MODE, not the call giver.
"For the record, most of the big-brokerage houses show their performance report sheet positive, but i personally feel traders are of judgemental nature, they choose some call to trade and on some calls not to trade, and moreover in the profitable calls they are in very hurry to exit the trade and in loss making calls either they wait till stoploss hit or even worse, sometime they even let trade run in deeper losses." -applicable to av indian trader, but not all.infact this psyche is characteristically novice.
4] EXPERIENCE SPEAKS HOW TO UTILIZE
Define 'genuine' tips. The fact is that signals, patterns fail, time and again - I wold believe on a long term basis, the failure rate would be 50%. The art of making money is to let go of the losing trades, when the losses are small. The balance 50% winners can give 2-5-10 times return of the losing trades.
What the chat-room guy is doing is nothing new - trading the signal and giving a rational for the trade. But these guys, supplement their trading income from running subscription services. Many people may want to trade the market, but not have the confidence to trade on their own, and hence may want someone backing them up. The fact is that many times, we see charts that show how the script never violated the 20 DMA, 15 EMA, or bounced back for e.g from 38.20% or 61.80% The fact is that this applied to the chart in question. How many charts would there be a failure of 20 DMA, 15 EMA, and 38.20% or 61.80% Fibonacci ratios? My guess is over 50%, and the fact is that these failures will never be quoted, and these failures are again much more than the successes. For every one perfect chart, I can show you 2 charts that the signals would have failed.
A good trader will be one who finds the balance between making good money and being consistent.- VERY TRUE.
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i have personal bias against call giver, as per me they r failed trader.Earn my by selling calls, getting suppliers of new novice.
Of Sandeep Wagle, a good call giver(when he was with angelbroking), i have seen to trade against his call.Also i have seen trade against Sudarshan Sukhani call . So skill of that individual trader is very high.
i personally trade many a times against call of sharekhan.
highest accuracy i get against indiabulls (2005-2007) with av accuracy of 80% right strike.- just sale in their buy call.
REGARDING Swing, - i find Sachin Chavan- a good call giver in 2007, but he perishes, in market turn, -Hitendra Vasudeo, tradersedgeindia - their buying on strength also not Right upto 50%.
Slowly i develop swingstyle from 2007(35%)- 2009- about 60% strike rate.Then trade it in market.
Also i have model on volatility based condition- which i use as on situation av once in a quarter in F&o.
intraday momentum i use , for daily income in high volume stock/future , -basically reading of imbalance in buyer/seller side, my novice idea refined by OTA trainer-nimble trader.
...............................
I have seen good intraday trader to 75% strike rate, has to perish with change in market condition.Yes he again come back after 1yr to trade +, with higher timeframe bias.That higher timeframe filter improve him to 70% , again his return is above 50% per annum.
Price action study is must for modern trader.
For call giver(some of whom i know)- r actually very poor risk/reward analyst , as well as dont know when to ADD.
100% is responsibilty of self, which we violate when we take active call service, is reason for failure by call taker.
.............................................
to believe above 80% strike rate is white lie. to develop any system/condition/set up with 60% accuracy a herculean task,- u have to do backtest, understand software,checking bar by bar, variable market, moneyflow theme- developing discipline , understanding trading business - it takes time, if its REALLY done- NOBODY WILL SELL .(AS HE CREATED HIS OWN MONEY MAKING M/C.
1]An analogy would be that of restaurants that are open near tourist landmarks. The food may be expensive, but the quality very poor. But inspite of this, the restaurants will have successful business operations, and never close inspite of 100% of the customers having a bad experience. Why is this? Because even if the tourist who has bad food never goes to this restaurant again, there will be thousands of new tourist who will dine there, because they have not experienced the quality of bad food there.
Similar case is with call givers. Even if they lose 100% of there customers each month, but manage to get 20 new customers each month with good marketing, just do the maths. 20*25,000 = 5 lacs rupees per month. This is pure profit. Now just replace the 20 new customers with 50, 70, 100 or more..... That is why tip giving is a good business, and will always remain, as long as there is human greed or gullibility.... . (This, inspite of Omsai bro's one man campaign against tip givers. As the famous Barnum Bailey commented : There is a fool born somewhere on this earth, each minute.... and it is true.) -100% TRUE
2]but there is a psychological reason...the tip provider doesn't know the trader psychology.....and the trader doesn't know how much to Risk..(Risk Parameters) on a particular trade.....sometimes he bet more and sometimes he bet less....what will happen is.... majority of time when he bets his entire/more than half of the capital(by the influence of previous successful trade) he looses the trade. .....and the tip provider only provide entry and exit point(sometimes T1,T2,T3)...but he doesn't tell u how much to risk on a given trade...so trader make his own decision on position sizing...and which causes him to loose sooner or later...
So My conclusion is ....
Never ever follow a Tip provider....every trader is unique...he has to generate his own calls.........100% TRUE
3]"for example intraday tips of ICICI works pretty well, far better than many"- REASON IS MARKET IN BULL MODE, not the call giver.
"For the record, most of the big-brokerage houses show their performance report sheet positive, but i personally feel traders are of judgemental nature, they choose some call to trade and on some calls not to trade, and moreover in the profitable calls they are in very hurry to exit the trade and in loss making calls either they wait till stoploss hit or even worse, sometime they even let trade run in deeper losses." -applicable to av indian trader, but not all.infact this psyche is characteristically novice.
4] EXPERIENCE SPEAKS HOW TO UTILIZE
Define 'genuine' tips. The fact is that signals, patterns fail, time and again - I wold believe on a long term basis, the failure rate would be 50%. The art of making money is to let go of the losing trades, when the losses are small. The balance 50% winners can give 2-5-10 times return of the losing trades.
What the chat-room guy is doing is nothing new - trading the signal and giving a rational for the trade. But these guys, supplement their trading income from running subscription services. Many people may want to trade the market, but not have the confidence to trade on their own, and hence may want someone backing them up. The fact is that many times, we see charts that show how the script never violated the 20 DMA, 15 EMA, or bounced back for e.g from 38.20% or 61.80% The fact is that this applied to the chart in question. How many charts would there be a failure of 20 DMA, 15 EMA, and 38.20% or 61.80% Fibonacci ratios? My guess is over 50%, and the fact is that these failures will never be quoted, and these failures are again much more than the successes. For every one perfect chart, I can show you 2 charts that the signals would have failed.
A good trader will be one who finds the balance between making good money and being consistent.- VERY TRUE.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
i have personal bias against call giver, as per me they r failed trader.Earn my by selling calls, getting suppliers of new novice.
Of Sandeep Wagle, a good call giver(when he was with angelbroking), i have seen to trade against his call.Also i have seen trade against Sudarshan Sukhani call . So skill of that individual trader is very high.
i personally trade many a times against call of sharekhan.
highest accuracy i get against indiabulls (2005-2007) with av accuracy of 80% right strike.- just sale in their buy call.
REGARDING Swing, - i find Sachin Chavan- a good call giver in 2007, but he perishes, in market turn, -Hitendra Vasudeo, tradersedgeindia - their buying on strength also not Right upto 50%.
Slowly i develop swingstyle from 2007(35%)- 2009- about 60% strike rate.Then trade it in market.
Also i have model on volatility based condition- which i use as on situation av once in a quarter in F&o.
intraday momentum i use , for daily income in high volume stock/future , -basically reading of imbalance in buyer/seller side, my novice idea refined by OTA trainer-nimble trader.
...............................
I have seen good intraday trader to 75% strike rate, has to perish with change in market condition.Yes he again come back after 1yr to trade +, with higher timeframe bias.That higher timeframe filter improve him to 70% , again his return is above 50% per annum.
Price action study is must for modern trader.
For call giver(some of whom i know)- r actually very poor risk/reward analyst , as well as dont know when to ADD.
100% is responsibilty of self, which we violate when we take active call service, is reason for failure by call taker.
.............................................
to believe above 80% strike rate is white lie. to develop any system/condition/set up with 60% accuracy a herculean task,- u have to do backtest, understand software,checking bar by bar, variable market, moneyflow theme- developing discipline , understanding trading business - it takes time, if its REALLY done- NOBODY WILL SELL .(AS HE CREATED HIS OWN MONEY MAKING M/C.
