[
QUOTE=golfdude;1010646]DSM,
Yes, I totally agree.
But my question is why don't tips work if they are genuine. Is there any technical reason for this ?
Define 'genuine' tips. The fact is that signals, patterns fail, time and again - I wold believe on a long term basis, the failure rate would be 50%. The art of making money is to let go of the losing trades, when the losses are small. The balance 50% winners can give 2-5-10 times return of the losing trades.
Let me give you another example. There is one day trader in USA who has a chat room for US markets. When you subscribe to his service, you actually log in to his chat room and sit during the market hours with other traders to trade. When he gives out any calls he will put the charts on the screen and give his reasoning for taking the call. He uses few of the technical analysis methods along with strict rules of day trading (trading with SL etc). I have subscribed to his service although I do not day trade with him. But I go to his chat room where he has around 200 subscribers. Everyone is free to give out calls but the main guy gives out calls with explanation of what method he used on the charts. Believe me, atleast 75% of the chat room visitors have been with him for more than couple of years. I myself have been visiting his chat room for a year now. He himself says that you can either take his calls but a better way is to learn the techniques so you do not have to rely on his calls completely. And I know one neighbor in my building who actively day trades with this guy (although he does not take all his calls). And this guy who runs this service is actually a successful day trader. Plus his subscription is quite reasonable which is $500 for lifetime.
What the chat-room guy is doing is nothing new - trading the signal and giving a rational for the trade. But these guys, supplement their trading income from running subscription services. Many people may want to trade the market, but not have the confidence to trade on their own, and hence may want someone backing them up. The fact is that many times, we see charts that show how the script never violated the 20 DMA, 15 EMA, or bounced back for e.g from 38.20% or 61.80% The fact is that this applied to the chart in question. How many charts would there be a failure of 20 DMA, 15 EMA, and 38.20% or 61.80% Fibonacci ratios? My guess is over 50%, and the fact is that these failures will never be quoted, and these failures are again much more than the successes. For every one perfect chart, I can show you 2 charts that the signals would have failed.
Then how is the above different from giving tips ? While I cannot vouch for the credibility of the firms in India giving out tips, I can definitely vouch for the success of this US day trader. Because he himself is in the chat room for entire market session and he publicly explains all the calls he is taking. Sometimes his calls fail but he makes a net profit daily.
There will be many traders who are making profits daily, but the question is how much money? There was a guy on the forum, who had opened a thread that trading as per his system, he had the confidence that he would never have a losing day, in a year. (He also wanted to patent his trading system) The sad but funny thing was that he was posting, that I made a profit of 2.70 Rupees, next day it would be something like 13.10 Rupees etc. He stopped posting his performance after a few days. By trading safe, one can exit as soon as one has made a few hundred bucks most of the time. It is not impossible. But can one live off a few hundred rupees trading a day? In Mumbai, if you want to hire a casual labourer, you have to pay 500 bucks. What I am trying to say that in trying to make big money and trying to trade consistently, there is a tradeoff. One can make big money, but will have to give up on consistency. And if one want to be consistent, he cannot make big money. A good trader will be one who finds the balance between making good money and being consistent. Incidentally, I had met Sandeep Wagle, a Technical Analyst who I respect (He will always tell the amount of profit or loss his calls have made, and even spell out the amount of Stop Loss hit on TV) and he mentioned 'Market has a way of proving even the experts wrong, and one cannot be a trader, if he want to be right all the time'
The proof of the pudding is in eating. So if you chose to believe that by paying somebody a good sum of your hard earned money, you can also make a good sum of money, so be it. If you do decide to go ahead, do let us know of your experience after a six month period.
Thanks.[/QUOTE]