Nifty Open Interest Analysis

[sridhar]

Am looking to buy 5600PE if NF(near month) breaks below 5630. Am getting a level of 5618 below which it will be freefall upto 5571.

 

[jamit_05]

Am looking to buy 5600PE if NF(near month) breaks below 5630. Am getting a level of 5618 below which it will be freefall upto 5571.

Buying after pullbacks is very profitable. But buying at breakouts is an uncool business in NF since it is low beta.

 

[boarders]

latest as per odin at 1132am

 

[jamit_05]

If there is a 20 odd point fall, then will buy 5700 CE with SL of 20 premium points; only to exit 1:1

 

[boarders]

if sustain below 5600 spot then could lead to heavy liquidation in 5600pe like it happened yesterday at 5700pe

 

[jamit_05]

if sustain below 5600 spot then could lead to heavy liquidation in 5600pe like it happened yesterday at 5700pe

But only when it happens.

5700 PE started giving-in even as NS approached 5700.
But, NS touched 5625 today and 5600 PE did not shake much... so it feels 5600 will not break today. Nonetheless, we will follow the OI to be on top of things.

 

[sridhar]

Buying after pullbacks is very profitable. But buying at breakouts is an uncool business in NF since it is low beta.

Agreed. My analysis is that 5600PE buy at 62 is a steal. But as I am just starting in the game my main concern is to protect capital. So only trading breakouts for 10% gain. Currently I do not carry forward open positions to next day as I am not still able to analyse gap up/down properly. Eg. yesterday I had a position in 5700PE @ avg. 62.2 whic I exited at avg. 72.8 for 17% gain. Would have made a killing if I had carried overnight. So need to work out a method of dealing with the risks involved.

My expectation is a move from 68 to 74 on breakout below 5630. If 5618 breaks then 80 or 85 could be reached.

 

[jamit_05]

Agreed. My analysis is that 5600PE buy at 62 is a steal. But as I am just starting in the game my main concern is to protect capital. So only trading breakouts for 10% gain. Currently I do not carry forward open positions to next day as I am not still able to analyse gap up/down properly. Eg. yesterday I had a position in 5700PE @ avg. 62.2 whic I exited at avg. 72.8 for 17% gain. Would have made a killing if I had carried overnight. So need to work out a method of dealing with the risks involved.

My expectation is a move from 68 to 74 on breakout below 5630. If 5618 breaks then 80 or 85 could be reached.

Yes, if you intend to exit quickly... the breakout are good.

Also, what is your Stop Loss? You expect 74-68=6 pt gain. What if the trade does not work out, whats your SL.

 

[sridhar]

Yes, if you intend to exit quickly... the breakout are good.

Also, what is your Stop Loss? You expect 74-68=6 pt gain. What if the trade does not work out, whats your SL.

Typically loss is max 10% of capital used. But if things go wrong I try & get out at entry price. That is why I am waiting for breakouts. Also do not want to sit for hours in front of terminal with open position with no action taking place.

The main thing is that my charts showed a clear sell @ 5732 yesterday(15 min time frame closing price dropped below 50EMA). It still is a sell but 5-EMA is showing signs of weakness. Also a 13-EMA touch(pullback) is overdue. That is around 5654. So I am keeping these 2 boundaries of 5654 & 5630.

If I had carried forward the 5700PE position I would keep stop loss trigger @ 100 (slightly below 15EMA for the option 15 mins chart) & tried to ride any further fall.

 

[jamit_05]

Typically loss is max 10% of capital used. But if things go wrong I try & get out at entry price. That is why I am waiting for breakouts. Also do not want to sit for hours in front of terminal with open position with no action taking place.

The main thing is that my charts showed a clear sell @ 5732 yesterday(15 min time frame closing price dropped below 50EMA). It still is a sell but 5-EMA is showing signs of weakness. Also a 13-EMA touch(pullback) is overdue. That is around 5654. So I am keeping these 2 boundaries of 5650 & 5630.

If I had carried forward the 5700PE position I would keep stop loss trigger @ 100 (slightly below 15EMA for the option 15 mins chart) & tried to ride any further fall.

Great going man... you do not need any luck you are above it