Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[vinst]

Thanks for clearing that up VJAY.

Before I get started on the analysis, let me something else with regards to TA's and FA's. I know I seem very dogmatic with my views concerning them. First, I've seen more stereotypes with FA's, than I have seen success stories. Another reason is that I've had a great deal of success in using TA's only without really being cognizant of what is going on in the FA world. Don't misunderstand me, I did know about Japan, when the NFP report comes out and the FOMC. I do know what is going on in Libya right now while our economy is in the tank. Nevertheless, it is only TA's I am acclimated to, and so that is an inherent bias with me.

On with tonight's forecast:
It is expected with the comfortable break of the WR1 that we get a continuation to the WR2, which is 5864, and the "A" level is 5853. Once again, this area needs to contain. We are definitely in for a huge correction. I'm a few days late on this one, but still, be looking for it. If I was trading this market, I would not be long beyond 5864. The 4 -hour is busting at the seems, and the is also getting to the point of exhaustion. Beware!

4xpip,
did today's intraday correction satisfy the expected retracement requirement from WR2 and "A" level , range 5853-5864?

regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

The TA's, in general, are never wrong.
Also, my personal TA's are never wrong. (Get my point here.) In trying to find the reversal for this market, I have been wrong, but that is not my TA's fault.It is mine in not interpreting them correctly. The main point concerning the interpretation is the 4-hour and the OB condition, and the daily and the break of the top of the cloud.

In lieu of that, and in consideration of the knowledge of how imminent the reversal still is, I got caught paddling against the stream because of what the daily is currently doing.

OTOH, my analysis will be good, for the most part, but let me put a spin on that. I'm going to be wrong more than most, because I give my analysis before the event, which is live. I do it more often than most, and so I have more chances to be wrong. Here in the US, baseball is one of our more popular sports (It's my favorite.). There was a pticher, Cy Young, who had the record for the most wins of 511. He also has the record for most losses at 313. This is because he had more chances, but he is still in the Hall of Fame.


TE=msrajendran;536626]the technicals are never wrong. thanks 4x sir ..............[/QUOTE]

 

[4xpipcounter]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Vinst, notice the wick on the second candle past the tweeter tops. That dip is a 50% move of the actual WR2 at 5864 and the WR1 at 5767. That fulfills any corrective process off the WR2.

It is not too often I pay attention to candle formations, but the tweeter tops is telling, because it was formed on the line of my WR2. After the tweeter tops were formed, there was a close under the level. If we get a move that breaks yesterday's top, then it is time to put 6013 on the radar.
I hate to beat a dead horse, but the favored scenario is that the reversal has begun.

4xpip,
did today's intraday correction satisfy the expected retracement requirement from WR2 and "A" level , range 5853-5864?

regards

 

[manoharpillai]

shall we assume to day's low support as stop lose for longs.

4xpip,
did today's intraday correction satisfy the expected retracement requirement from WR2 and "A" level , range 5853-5864?

regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Manoharpillai, that is a good assumption as long as we progress higher.

shall we assume to day's low support as stop lose for longs.

 

[sanjosedesi]

It is also my opinion that the markets can never be manipulated. There are too many players. Collaboration for any manipulative ploy is nearly impossible. Let me give an example as a metaphor. Often we hear people's outcries about gas prices at the pump. They talk about a boycott. If a boycott could be pulled, then the collective body might be able to do something about lowering gas prices. The problem? Too many players involved.

While I agree with and like most of what you are saying; this is where I differ.

I do not think you or I can manipulate markets. However, I do think JP Morgan and Goldman Saccs can manipulate them, to give you a local example. Or Enron if you remember their "rob grandma and make her pay for the electricity" stories. At the very least these big guys can nudge prices in a direction. While big money has always been there, the challenge over the last few decades is that big money has gotten bigger. Earlier, markets were more perfect and technicals could work as it averaged out all people's emotions. However, now some people have so much power; and with the added knowledge of technicals, they can manipulate with the least effort. Now you would say that the technicals will catch the new trend ... I contest that the technicals will catch it too late for it to be effective for you and me.
Now I am not an expert in charts (yet or ever), but if I were ... and if the charts can be 80-90% effective, I think I would be able to drill down the 10-20% failure rate into 3 categories - A) my learning, B) random variation and C) manipulation. And I feel that the category C will show a higher and higher incidence with every year which passes, primarily because the big money continues to become bigger money.

Anyway, my intent was to figure out patterns when we can predict (not post-facto infer) market manipulation. What are the times these guys do it? What are the times they don't? I know it is not our core area of discussion in this thread, but if you / anyone ever sees something like that, do share.

 

[Romeo and Elliott]

my 2 cents

Re Technicals, their validity etc i think it was John someones book that says Technicals are the study of supply and demand, to say technicals dont hold would be to say markets are not govered by supply and demand (paraphrased) :

IMO :

http://www.traderji.com/equities/47979-stocks-keep-close-eye-canteen-489.html#post522912

 

[sanjosedesi]

Re Technicals, their validity etc i think it was John someones book that says Technicals are the study of supply and demand, to say technicals dont hold would be to say markets are not govered by supply and demand (paraphrased) :

I agree with the sentiment you express. However, the difference I see is that the market is shifting from having a million retail customers to having 10 million retail customers (numbers imaginary) PLUS having 20-30 GIANT customers who can spend as much as maybe 1 million retail customers. Of course the technicals are still valid, but there are opportunities for the unscrupulous to play around.

If you remember, there was a story about JPM or GS running priority trades within their networks ... the 3 milli second does not give them magical gains, but small gains a billion times still makes them rich.

I was thinking what will I do if I was a fund manager ... lets assume for a second that I have a huge fund and ability to move market by 0.1%, not big, not noticeable, but still gives me an extra bounce. When will I use it? Given the SIP investments and SWP withdrawals (for Paul these are monthly or weekly automatic investment and withdrawal plans). I would bump up the market on the day when I have most funds coming in, so that I give out fewer units, and I will bump down the price when I have pay out. Now you will say ... how does it matter, if the fund is doing good, the investor eventually gains. So lets alter the model a little bit. What if I am a hedge fund manager with the inside information about SIP and SWP? I can play one side for suckers and give benefit to the other side, can't I?

Of course this is pure speculation and not allegations about anyone. But just like I am gawking at the charts discussion from Paul, and thinking ... if only I knew this before. I am similarly gawking at the month end futures and options volatility and wonder what's going on !! I am sure there is someone out there who is doing proprietary adjustments to the market ... and I think that predicting how the big money will influence the markets is as relevant as technicals and fundamentals, or at least becoming more and more relevant every passing year.

 

[vinst]

I agree with the sentiment you express. However, the difference I see is that the market is shifting from having a million retail customers to having 10 million retail customers (numbers imaginary) PLUS having 20-30 GIANT customers who can spend as much as maybe 1 million retail customers. Of course the technicals are still valid, but there are opportunities for the unscrupulous to play around.

If you remember, there was a story about JPM or GS running priority trades within their networks ... the 3 milli second does not give them magical gains, but small gains a billion times still makes them rich.

I was thinking what will I do if I was a fund manager ... lets assume for a second that I have a huge fund and ability to move market by 0.1%, not big, not noticeable, but still gives me an extra bounce. When will I use it? Given the SIP investments and SWP withdrawals (for Paul these are monthly or weekly automatic investment and withdrawal plans). I would bump up the market on the day when I have most funds coming in, so that I give out fewer units, and I will bump down the price when I have pay out. Now you will say ... how does it matter, if the fund is doing good, the investor eventually gains. So lets alter the model a little bit. What if I am a hedge fund manager with the inside information about SIP and SWP? I can play one side for suckers and give benefit to the other side, can't I?

Of course this is pure speculation and not allegations about anyone. But just like I am gawking at the charts discussion from Paul, and thinking ... if only I knew this before. I am similarly gawking at the month end futures and options volatility and wonder what's going on !! I am sure there is someone out there who is doing proprietary adjustments to the market ... and I think that predicting how the big money will influence the markets is as relevant as technicals and fundamentals, or at least becoming more and more relevant every passing year.

sanjosdesi,
I fully agree with your view that manipulation is done regularly. Istead of saying manipulation, i'd say the person/entity is using its funds to its own advantage, which is natural. one is supposed to use one's ability (of any form: money, power, status) to enhance the ability further. the definition of manipulation is very scary.
How wud one say one chess player is better than the other? because he/she had better brainwork. Now soomeone could say the winner won because he/she manipulated the game in his/her favour by using brain which the opponent possessed in lesser quality.
Charles darwin's theory of survival is based on such things which we call manipulation. It is nothing but natural.
The more micro we go, the worst it becomes. So called regulated markets are no better than a completely un-regulated market. A 'regulated' market would see 3-4 people being prosecuted for insider trading , blah blah. so what? why spend so much resources and station so many people just to catch 3-4 people every year? better ask these peole to take up farming. world needs food, no use of saying someone made 20 million by using insider info. the definition of insider info itself changes every few years.
No fun saying manipulation is there or no there or it is less or more.
manipulation is in nature. nothing can stop it. only the form changes.

 

[sanjosedesi]

sanjosdesi, No fun saying manipulation is there or no there or it is less or more.
manipulation is in nature. nothing can stop it. only the form changes.

My question is actually different. 'Good traders' like Pips may not care as they cover their losses and then make some. However, 'inquisitive traders' care ... not to prosecute anyone, but to learn and use that to their advantage. If you can find out 12 or more pivot points in a year (F&O expiry) and can then use the signals from the charts to see which way the manipulation is going to go, you can jump on the same bandwagon with some part of your portfolio. I am not at a level I can even understand it. However, I am sure people expert with charts might be able to think on how to capture this.
[ADD] It's like this. We have technical experts. We have fundamental experts. We have tech / funda all rounders. What I want to target is to become tech / funda / manipulation all rounder.