SJD, truth be known, but the technicals are never wrong. The interpreter of the technicals (In this case, that would be me.) is wrong occasionally. I'll elaborate a little later concerning the market's current plight.
The reason I am a technical trader is regardless of the news or whatever is going on at the current time, prices are still confined within its algorithmic flow, and is always discernible in hindsight.
I also noticed there is peculiar action near the end of the week and the end of the month. I noticed that since my S&R's were conceived. AS an example, this is the end of the month and the monthly S&R's lose their elasticity because of them being hit on a few times throughout the month (Just an example. Nifty is currently at a high for the month.
My insight into the markets and the 6 1/2 years experience I have revolves only around the technicals. I can tell you something about a chart and what I see on it and some of the obviations involved, but I am still not wise to a country's fundamental set. I do know there are way too many stereotypes that revolve around fundamental information. Those stereotypes are never used to making a trading decision ,but are always used in hindsight. That being said, if anyone uses FA's along with the TA's to make trading decisions and they are winning, that was not meant as a challenge. My hats off are to anyone who trades regularly with consistent gains.
IMO, charts can never infer any kind of manipulation, but only the mathematics that revolve around the markets. Also, IMO, charts are never wrong. The only one that can be wrong is the one interpreting those charts. Let me say I misinterpret the charts every once in awhile, which is the only reason I do not post 100% winning trades.
It is also my opinion that the markets can never be manipulated. There are too many players. Collaboration for any manipulative ploy is nearly impossible. Let me give an example as a metaphor. Often we hear people's outcries about gas prices at the pump. They talk about a boycott. If a boycott could be pulled, then the collective body might be able to do something about lowering gas prices. The problem? Too many players involved.
Trends will a lot of times move in tandem. As a general average the cycle of all markets is about 28 candles. With 1,000's of markets worldwide, it is obvious there are going to be quite a few that will move in tandem if anything, by coincidence. The one thing I like about forex is there is a mathematical relationship with every pair. As an example EUR/USD * USD/CHF = EUR/CHF. I could take every pair in existence and make a formula (nothing more than simple algebra) to show their interrelationship.
Let me be clear. I trade 28 markets, and it is only spot forex. I track and apply my methodology to as many as you want me to.
I'd like to be able to address you comment concerning the FII, but excuse my ignorance as I do not know what it is or what the acronym stands for.
As I mentioned a little earlier, I'll add my view on Nifty, but it is 1700 here, and I am getting ready to go out for the night.
Hi Pips, a couple of questions for you. Since you trade in many many markets, you might have much better insight than me in these.
#1. I have a feeling that Indian markets are manipulated around the month ends (F&O / option expiry or calendar month/quarter end reporting needs). So a chart might point to a move, but it does not happen that way during these periods. Now what I see is pure speculation based on maybe a year of watching the stocks move. Would you be able to infer any such thing based on charts?
I want to clarify that manipulation does not always imply illegal manipulation. However, I feel the fund managers will buy more (or less) equities during these times to nudge the stock a bit here and there (the buys and sells are well within their rights). Given that even a 5% extra purchase (or sale) from daily levels can move the index significantly, I consider it manipulation which is not based on market sentiments but a factor bigger than market economy that it must be considered.
Anyway, would you be able to infer / see such a thing from charts?
#2. I see that you trade mostly currency pairs? However, when we discuss NIFTY here, we are looking at in isolation. I have not had the time to go back and review what people were saying in December about NIFTY (right before it crashed), but the story was that FIIs sold off a part of their holdings as the global markets were more attractive than India.
If true, we should be able to decipher the same thing (index trading pairs) from charts by plotting NIFTY against DOW or some global index. And if we had the option to play with different markets (it is very very limited in India), we would be able to make the same calls as the FIIs. Do you agree? And if yes, what model will you make?
